Gloucester Saint

It’ll rise for a hefty % of the population whoever gets in, that’s a fact, even if Sunak pulled off a miracle or Farage the impossible because of fiscal drag over the last few years pulling more people into higher bands especially. And no government with the dreadful state the economy and public finances can afford to raise thresholds for the next 3-4 years at very best. The IFS have been saying this for months.

Latest IPSOS-MRP poll showing similar to others, but Tories up over 100 seats to 117 on this one. Hoping for a bit more than 30-40 seats from a Lib Dem perspective but up from 8 currently would still be a very good outcome. Really need Labour voters to be tactically voting in areas where they can’t win and vice versa. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election Some interesting micro trends: - Corbyn not making any serious inroads vs Labour in Islington - Farage predicted at present to win Clacton, and Anderson holding Ashfield. Suggesting 3 seats for Reform, and in close contests with the Tories in a few more. Modelling tricky apparently where the Brexit party didn’t stand vs Boris. - Greens doing well in Bristol Central and N Herefordshire but could lose Brighton to Labour - Hunt hanging on as it stands, but Mordaunt, JRM, Keegan and Michael Green/Grant Shapps on their way if this trajectory played out. Sunak ok in his seat on a much reduced majority

Terrible news and thoughts very much with you and your family. Hopefully you made some memories to cherish at Wembley and throughout his life, 19, such a tender age.

As Whitey Grandad commented, who do they believe they are reclaiming the UK (well, England really) from? Clearly going by this, the black, brown, people with disabilities, women, and people with multi-long term conditions (95% of their over-65s base they are eroding from the Tories) covered by the 2010 Equality Act they want to abolish. The IFS estimated it as being erroneous by a margin of tens of billions https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction Their summary is that there’s some clear sense of purpose but not a huge amount of it is affordable so hence many more savings would be needed and no prospect of the £17bn they want to raise for reducing NHS waiting lists (knowing that Farage wants to replace the NHS really). It concludes by saying there would be a huge cut in the size of the state, bearing in mind the dissatisfaction with austerity laid the ground for Brexit in a lot of areas. And these cuts would be far beyond what Cameron did. Not least given the scale of the tax giveaways which Reform say will cost £70bn but economists estimate at £93bn - bigger than Truss attempted and £23bn would be a huge unfunded gap. If the Tories had a brain, they’d latch onto this as Sunak also opposed Truss’s loony plans, but they are still fixated with Starmer.

The time is gone, the song is over, thought I’d something more to say - is probably what Southgate what will be thinking during the semi-finals. Which is still decent but with this squad of players you want to see them control games more.

Bellingham and Saka excellent, Rice hopefully should be helped by Gallagher being on, TAA awful. Foden hit and miss, Dusan booked for bringing him down. Guehi done well, Stones a bit ropey at times. Serbs have got to go for it now, Kane hits the bar, keeper saved that! What a save. Foden gives it away in a dangerous area yet again, get him subbed.

Mostly impressive from England, Trent a waste of a shirt though. Bellingham on a different planet. Nearly 2-0.

In the normal course if things, it probably would have been but a CBE/MBE/OBE would have left him level with Vennells in effect so a knighthood differentiates and recognises the struggles to fight chronic injustices over a long period whereas Vennells got her gong for doing her job (appallingly as it turned out).

Angus Gunn special - shot was well placed but a keeper at any EFL standard should be getting that around the post. Whoever is Saints keeping scout needs sacking given we’ve also signed Gavin ‘National League’ Bazanu. Good with his feet but can’t catch Covid. Combined £30m nearly just in fees pissed up the wall - Man City laughing.😆

Oh I agree, both on a personal level and also living in the SW (just about) in an area that was remain/leave marginal but where there’s a lot of cynicism about Brexit now. I think what she was trying to do is reassure the ‘Red Wall’ areas that they won’t attempt a Jo Swinney and subvert the referendum outcome, but they are going to find it hard to not make even further spending cuts on top of what is already likely, let alone net investment in public services, without some closer links to the EU to enable economic growth. After all, people tend to vote Labour to invest more in public services, not further cuts.

Take it that you are as weary of the debates and various newspaper cheerleading for their bosses as I am. However, the campaigning is still important, not for who wins on 4 July it seems, but for what the formation of the opposition looks like, as that will determine the next few elections. At last nights debate, which was one too many for me, Mordaunt still focused on Rayner, Rayner countered where she needed to but Mordaunt and the Lib Dem’s were clashing more as the Lib Dem’s are more of a threat to the Tories having 80-150 seats and being the official opposition. Seems crazy to even say it out loud, but a You Gov poll an hour beforehand had Reform 1% ahead of the Tories and the Lib Dem’s only 3% behind and a big danger in south and SW. Cooper and Farage focused on Mordaunt, but Penny couldn’t take on Farage in the same way as the Tories don’t want to push any Reform waverers further to them. Flynn and Rayner clashed more where the SNP and Labour are contesting Scotland. Greens and Welsh targeting Rayner over further public sector cuts, as well as Flynn, to differentiate.

They’ve got some other good people there coming through - Reeves, Burnham as well when his second mayoral term finishes, Georgia Gould, Sarah Sackman, Darren Jones (watch him in action at the Post Office and Royal Mail enquiries). Rayner will be interesting to see in government, and you’ve got older hands like Cooper, Miliband, Lammy (not Hypo’s favourite but he got Starmer into the picture on D-Day not withstanding Rishi’s bloopers) and Benn to add some practical experience. Hoping the Lib Dem’s get back to our 50-60 seat levels and bring some fresh talent into Westminster. Davey’s having a good campaign. Tories need to re-generate if they can win 80-120 seats but I can’t see their capable younger elements like Kearns or Atkins wanting to go anywhere near a shadow cabinet led by Braverman or Badenoch, perhaps the latter if she grows up a bit and knocks the boring culture war crap on the head. Someone electable like Tugendhat won’t go near it for a few more years. They will have a lot of hapless, damaged crap left over - Donelan, Braverman, Stride, Truss, Patel (sorry Lighthouse), another ex-PM in Sunak tired and worn out, and then a load of duffers who are Cameron era and well before from the shires. Jenryck the least damaged on the right but if people say Starmer lacks personality… Financially, they are already struggling this campaign and the constant culture wars haven’t helped them. Not surprised some of their right wing are eyeing up Tice’s £££.

The Sky format was SO much better than the ITV debacle and slightly better BBC multi-party set-up. Both leaders did OK, I’d like to see Starmer self-deprecate a bit more - smile slightly at the audience laughter at the toolmaker reference. Sunak got a bit tetchy with Rigby, but dealt with the audience quite well. The trouble is that the Tories are just so unpopular - the ex-Tory local chair summed it up. I also thought when he was listing all of the inter generational pledges, I was thinking ‘that’s far more than you’ve got the funding to do’. Cleverley is digging himself a hole here on the spin segment - they lied, tried to claim the Treasury provided the figures. Two words James Cleverley - Fiscal Drag: my taxes are still going up in the next Parliament. And with the state of our key services, they need to. I thought 55/45 Starmer. Sky/You Gov poll much tougher on Rishi than me, registering 64/36 Starmer/Sunak.

The Sir David Amess murder as well, and the attempted Lib Dem sword attack further back, on the more severe end of the scale. It’s all poor though and shit behaviour.

Farage having to duck again. Fortunately the thrower didn’t have a very good aim this time https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

As Labour found out the hard way in the 1980s, their nuclear disarmament policy from the left cost them many, many votes.

Wow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

Speaking of which https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/09/crank-tory-candidates-accused-of-sharing-online-conspiracy-theories Reform and Tories kicking off about candidate selections and alleged educements, Nice little sparring in there between Tice and Andrea ‘middle finger’ Jenkyns who is concerned Reform (as well as her huge gob) cause her defeat https://uk.news.yahoo.com/richard-tice-accuses-tories-dirty-104518823.html Reform also dropped two candidates on Friday - I guess C4 did their due diligence for them then! https://www.channel4.com/news/two-reform-uk-candidates-ditched-after-accusations-of-racism-and-religious-hate

Don’t read the Mail but apparently Boris used ‘Sir Kier Schnorrer’ which Robert Peston confirmed is an offensive Yiddish term in the Jewish community for beggar and scrounger. He also from the screenshot used the word gimp. Brexit was a fuck up Boris, your fuck up, you never ‘got Brexit done’, I’ll criticise Sunak on many things but you left him a horrific mess on that topic, and the next government will be cleaning it up further. And to think many Tories want this obese lazy, bigoted (see umpteen examples), oaf to be out campaigning. When I think about the unreasonable pile on Ed Davey suffered as well, I want to see the Tory Party destroyed.

Don’t forget about Priti Patel. Lighthouse isn’t, he bought an extra large box of Kleenex for the election campaign and he hasn’t even broken the seal yet on the box due to the lack of sightings. At least let the bloke have some opportunity to do so in the weeks after 4 July during the leadership campaign. There you go Lighthouse, to get you started, she looks particularly stern in this article and the headline says ‘aggressive’ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8077495/Aggressive-Priti-Patel-threw-briefing-folder-officials-face.html Cant stand her myself but let it not be said that I don’t do anything to help my fellow Saints fans

Yep, and any advantage they gained is now well and truly eroded into the negative after yesterday. It’s a long enough campaign to take a day with world leaders to commemorate, and it’s the last chance to mark D-Day with survivors, I’ve heard what he’s said to Sam Coates on Sky but I don’t think he still realises the full meaning to the public. It actually makes the £2k item a bit more grubby now after the Treasury pushback and Clare Coutinho being caught out. He got his punch in at the debate but all people will think of now when the ITV interview is screened is that he wasn’t where he should have been. Mercer letting him have some pelters https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-grilled-over-decision-to-leave-d-day-ceremony-early_uk_6662dcb8e4b0bf0f81652e84 Farage in particular will be into this slip up with relish. Starmer getting photographed in discussions with Ukraine PM will rub further salt into the wound. Interesting, I heard on Times Radio that apparently You Gov changed their analysis methodologically just before Farage announced he was standing. Using the old method, it would leave Tories and Reform tied on 18% each they were saying. Best he can do after this episode is finish ahead of the LDs on seats and Reform on the popular vote. Astonished that I’m saying this but not sure either or both those are a given right now. Edit - apparently Angela Rayner’s brother served in Afghanistan. Does Penny now defend using her own naval career tonight, pushing Sunak under the bus further? Would boost her own ambitions post-GE, and maybe first and foremost holding her seat in a military place.

Apologies for posting on a different WW2 thread - hadn’t twigged straight away that there was two - but this one seemed more active on the experiences of those at the time. Thought the experiences of my own grandfathers in WW2 and some Southampton connections might be of interest. Maybe, maybe not!

Both my grandfathers were active in WW2 on different continents - one was a career medic, saved wounded troops, sometimes picked up the pieces, and was always at great risk in theatres such as Dunkirk, El Alamein and Montecasino. Dread to think what he dealt with and saw, and that generation rarely commented on it. I also know that he saw a ship sink which one of his brothers was on, I think in Dunkirk. The other was in Asia, captured by the Japanese and held as a POW on the Burmese railway. Once a champion boxer in the Army, he lost a leg. Was a steward at the Dell in the 1950s and 60s. Gave me his 1976 FA Cup Final mirror. I don’t think he’d appreciate my Honda car ownership! The other served post-war at the Royal Victoria Military Hospital, a remarkable building, until that itself was decommissioned, as was he, in the very early 1960s. Apparently the fighting was so loud during D-Day that it travelled up Southampton Water and could be heard at the hospital itself. Wonderful to see the old boys getting celebrated as they should be in Normandy today and really made me think of them both. As a sad postscript, one of my grandfathers was burgled in the 1990s and had some cash stolen - people who lived in the 1920s and 30s weren’t always fully trusting of banks. That we could replace - but not his war medals from the different campaigns, also taken. How low can you go? The police eventually found them again during a raid - they’d been buried in a suspect’s garden - and the detectives very kindly paid from their pocket to have them restored and re-polished to their original glory. He was never re-united with them…he passed away the week before they were found. The RBL organised with us a wonderful military funeral as he was in service for the best part of 30 years. There’d been a bit of media coverage about trying to get his medals back for him, the members of the public and ex-services folks turning out to salute the hearse will stay with me for the rest of my own days. The medals now are proudly displayed, as they should be. Love them both and very proud of them.

He’s one of the more objective Conservative commentators out there. The £2k figure is being widely de-bunked today but Starmer needs to be better on his feet, I’d have simply interjected ‘so your SPADS claim Rishi’ each time Sunak popped up with it. He did deal with it well later but it shouldn’t have taken 30 minutes. You Gov poll afterwards reckoned Sunak edged it 51/49 which was also my impression of it on the night. The manifestos coming might help Starmer getting the measures across, I think he could have countered more on Rwanda and said ‘the cost is extortionate, our proposals would process x faster, cost y less and finish with the point he did make around reducing the accommodation cost’. He could have expanded slightly on the Border Security Command as well and compared to the VFM of Rwanda. It would mean he was answering the questions more which is an area Sunak was slightly better on. Sunak scored some genuine hits but got laughed at and jeered three times which is unusual. He was too aggressive in the first 40 and tangled himself a few times verbally trying to get too many blows in at one time. Boris could carry it off but Rishi can’t. The other debates will need far stronger presenters than Julie Etchingham - Sunak just ignored her (which took a few points off the hits he did score) and Rayner/Shapps or Michael Green would have really destroyed her on Friday night. Can’t imagine Rigby, Burley or Kuenssberg getting owned like that by Sunak.

Further evidence, as any was needed, that social media is especially a sewer in an election https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o Some of it was teenagers on a wind-up, but some of it suspiciously like overseas chatbots. Doubt if many, if any, were actual Reform supporters