Thinking like that ignores the points we have picked up due to luck or opponents' performances or having a good day going our way that we might easily otherwise have dropped. Full points away at West Ham and with 10 men against Pompey immediately spring to mind.
It's never been the case that football always goes how it's expected to.
It's still worth keeping in mind that it's without the -4 that reflects how we're doing on the pitch, which is now better than anyone else so far this season.
I guess that technically, this is the first game that Spygate is truly settled, outside of the period that the FA could theoretically have appealed his punishment.
Think it's possible some refs might have given red, but don't think the yellow he decided on would have caused VAR to intervene as a clear and obvious error if it was in use.