I'll be the first to admit that I'm shit at maths but can you explain this?
If we have 10 game and each has a 10% chance of a win, that means that it was a 90% chance of drawing or losing.
So for that, how can you calculate the number of points we'd take (as being over 3pts)? For me, I don't feel that there's enough information as to what proportion of those 90% are likely to be draws and what are proportion are likely to be losses.
Again, I'm totally shit at maths so what is the explanation for the answer you gave of over 3pts?