Guided Missile

This is a normal response for someone that has adopted the main characteristic of the French, namely an inflated sense of national pride, despite all evidence to the contrary. :yawinkle: On the subject of credit default swaps, I'm pretty sure that the German, French and UK government bonds are about as risk-free as any investment could be. Now, if we talk about Irish, Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian bonds, they are only slightly safer at the moment, than shares in Southampton Leisure plc. I'm sure your colleagues are watching those CDS's rise nearly as quick as unemployment rates in the City....(sorry about that one)

Jonah, I think you should have read the comments on that highly misleading Spectator article you quoted, particularly this one, that I think is on the money: AlexM December 11th, 2008 6:23am Sorry, Fraser. Far be it from me to defend the worst Prime Minister and (by a country mile) worst Chancellor of the Exchequer this country has ever had, but you're slightly wide of the mark here. For a start, there is nothing remotely new or original about these data. They are a standard derivation from the International Investment Position (IIP) published quarterly by most countries according to IMF-defined standards. These ratios may not be widely known by the public (or journalists) but are common knowledge in the markets and should already be fully reflected in prices and exchange rates. I'm sure Michael Saunders will be flattered by your praise but this is very elementary stuff for a credit analyst. Secondly, it is the net external debt ratio that is important. Quite a few developed countries have much larger external debt/GDP ratios than the UK but these liabilities are matched by liquid external assets. All countries with large international banking sectors *by definition* have outsized gross external liabilities (e,g, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Singapore, Aruba, Cayman Islands, Malta, Cyprus, to name a few) but, of course, banks (however imperfectly) have to balance their liabilities with assets. In most cases, these countries are net external creditors. Some external assets will be dodgy US securities but, in the greater scheme of things, these are unlikely to be enough to affect national-level ratios. As I am on holiday at the moment, I cannot furnish you with the detailed numbers but, off the top of my head, I believe the UK's net external debt is nearer 30% of GDP. Certainly it is not out of line with other G7 countries. Indeed, Moody's and Standard & Poor's consider that external debt ratios are irrelevant from a credit perspective for countries with fully convertible reserve currencies and do not even quote them (Fitch Ratings do). I must admit, you had me worried until I noticed the name of the financial genius of a credit analyst that constructed the graphs you linked. Michael Saunders from CitiGroup!!!! :smt044 I think he should concentrate more on Citigroup's external asset and debt position, assuming he's still in a job....

I know most of the readers of this exchange may be bored, but as usual, I enjoy our exchanges. The scary figures you quote are from this link, I assume. I think the author tries to confuse gross external debt with net external debt, which I think is disingenous. The reason is that for many years, the UK have been second, only to the US, in regard to total foreign investments and ahead of Japan and Germany. We have punched above our weight for years in this regard and it is not suprising that due to the large scale of foreign investments, we have associated debts. What the figures do not include are the associated foreign assets held by UK entities. The net figure is a better indicator of our foreign indebtedness. Simply put, if I have €150,000 in cash deposits in Germany and I have borrowed €100,000 against these deposits, you can hardly say I am €100,000 in debt. Isn't this right?

I used this as a secondary source: "Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was 44.2 per cent at the end of November 2008, compared with 43.1 per cent at end of November 2007. Net debt was £650.0 billion at the end of November, compared with £617.1 billion a year earlier. The most recent figures for public sector net debt excluding financial sector intervention are for September 2008, when net debt was £562.6 billion (38.3 per cent of GDP)." There's nothing else for us to do now, though. We're just going to be forced to ask Um Pahars who is right....

I assume you mean these "said tourists": I can see that France has really mellowed you....:smt044

Actually, the justification to post that France is in a worse financial state than us, with regard to their national debt, came from figures compiled by the CIA in their Factbook, not dumb journos. A selection of national debt data is shown below. France's debt does not include their massive civil service pension obligations that, at some time in the future, may become payable. Country Public debt(% of GDP) Date Japan 170.00 2007 est. Italy 104.00 2007 est. Greece 89.50 2007 est. Belgium 84.60 2007 est. Norway 83.10 2007 est. Hungary 67.00 2007 est. Germany 64.90 2007 est. Canada 64.20 2007 est. France 63.90 2007 est. Portugal 63.60 2007 est. United States 60.80 2007 est. Austria 59.10 2007 est. Netherlands 45.50 2007 est. Switzerland 44.20 2007 est. United Kingdom 43.60 2007 est. Poland 43.10 2007 est. Sweden 41.70 2007 est. Spain 36.20 2007 est. Denmark 26.00 2007 est. Ireland 24.90 2007 est. It is interesting to note that the criteria for membership of the ERM requires public debt to be no more the 60% of GDP. Belgium got special dispensation. Italy don't care and Greece is rioting, with Hungary going to the IMF for a loan... The other figures you include, namely... * Bank bail-outs = £500 billion and counting * Bradford & Bingley bail-out = £30 billion * Private Finance Initiatives = £100 billion * Network Rail liability = £20 billion can hardly be construed as national debt at this stage, as much of the money is in the form of secured repayable loan gaurantees, loans (at 12% p.a.) or share capital. Another interesting article: By Henry Samuel in Paris Last Updated: 1:33AM BST 25 Sep 2007 French PM Francois Fillon France is bankrupt and can no longer afford to pay its workers generous salaries and subsidies, its prime minister has declared. Francois Fillon made the undiplomatic outburst during a trip to the French island of Corsica, where farmers were demanding more government money. "I am at the head of a state that is in a position of bankruptcy," he said. "I am at the head of a state that for 15 years has been in chronic deficit. I am at the head of a state that has not once passed a balanced budget in 25 years. This can't go on." I made the point about France, in response to a bitter ex-pat from France who had spiteful words to post about English tourists in BMW's, who he has never met, assuming that this forum was similar to the sad bars he frequents with other ex-pats, where they all moan about the old country. I happen to think that a country that ended the second world war, after helping liberate France, with a national debt of over 150% of GNP and with many cities, like Southampton, flattened by years of bombing, has done quite well to get to the debt level we are at. I also happen to think that since the French revolution, which was caused by the level of the French national debt, the French government and population has learnt nothing about living within their means. Still, obviously none of the population cares as they continue to get generous state assistance that they can't afford...

Barely three months ago, the club made this announcement: Reduced prices not the answer say Saints 11:49am Saturday 11th October 2008 SAINTS have ruled out reducing ticket prices and creating a matchday area for youngsters in a bid to improve attendances at St Mary’s. The club have suffered four successive lowest ever league attendances at the stadium, culminating in a crowd of just 14,480 for the midweek win against Norwich on September 30. Fans have told the Daily Echo that the current ticket prices at St Mary’s – the average adult price is £24 – is too high in these credit crunch times. Fast forward to today and the Echo reports the club admitting they need to be more "inventive" when it comes to next years prices, following the season's best league gate of 26,580 for the Forest game, when the prices were slashed. No S h!t, Sherlock....

Out of touch, expat gone native, IMO. A quick read of the history of France will tell you it is bound to go t!ts up soon, with another corrupt government installed to try and sort out the mess, as Paris riots and burns and tractors block the roads, fisherman the ports. Take a look a what's happening in Greece. It's more relevant to you than what is happening in "Blighty". On second thoughts, have another bottle of wine and shrug. It's what the French do in a crisis.

I don't want to pi $$ on your bonfire, but I wouldn't crack open the champagne too soon. A few facts: Currently, France has a debt of 66.6% of their GDP. Gross debt could rise to around 72 percent of GDP in 2010 as the French economy contracts by 1.5%. Today France is using approximately 89% of the income tax or 140% of its corporation tax to pay on the interest alone for the national debt. UK National debt is about 43% of GDP A debt of 43% of GDP isn't bad for a nation that refused to collaborate with the Nazis and were prepared to spend all of it's gold reserves helping to free the rest of Europe from tyranny. The rest of the money, we needed to spend on armaments to defend "Blighty" and liberate France and the rest of Europe, we borrowed from the US under the lend lease programme, a loan which we finished paying back on 29th December, 2006.

The only bright spot on the horizon for Pompey, is when that two headed baby is born and they are able to play him up front....

I was thinking the same thing, but I have a feeling that before long, sanity will reign and UEFA will introduce a rule regarding the financial viability of the clubs entering European competitions. It doesn't seem fair that a group of Arabs/Russians can buy success when the club itself is not a viable business model. I think the Bundesliga model is a good one, requiring a 51% ownership by club members.

....the truth is, the economic situation in this country is far worse than the papers or the government of the day, will admit. It all started with the banks and if anyone thinks that the taxpayer has given these fair weather friends all the money that they need, they are very much mistaken. They are so desparate for money they have been forced to pay 12-14% interest to any government that will lend to them or buy their shares. In my opinion they will soon have the begging bowls out again, as the ressession cripples their profit forecasts. In addition, there will be a mass sell off of any bank assets that can raise a bob or two, together with the withdrawal of credit from all but the most secure borrowers. Southampton Leisure plc is to secure borrowers, what Michael Wilde is to secure investors. I would be prepared to bet that Barclays, that well known Arab bank, is already turning the screws on our club to get out of the overdraft, PDQ, via their "business support" team, in Birmingham. Assuming that this happening, there is only one thing on Lowe and Jone's mind at the moment. Raising cash to pay Barclays off. Once this is done, the threat of administration will recede. Meeting the expectations of Southampton fans at the same time will be impossible and most will have to readjust to the new economic environment and limit their hopes to the economic survival of the club. It is the only thing we should worry about. Luckily, the short term debt, ie that which has to be paid within 12 months, is fairly low in the case of Southampton Leisure plc. Portsmouth, to put it in perspective, have £66M in short term debts. Chelsea have £132M in short term and £603M in long term debts. We'll find the £5M or so to keep Barclays happy and avoid going out of business. Others won't and we'll look around one day and be thankfull we didn't pour money into trying to maintain league status. At the moment, business survival in 2009 will be a real achievement, for anyone....

Mark, I think you meant to say that "he could delay publishing Merlion's next accounts by at least a further 12 months"

Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:36 pm Thank Mike for the information and I am glad to hear that the plc he controls is growing from strength to strength. A couple points of clarification, if possible, as I am sure you want to get away from the computer to enjoy the sun in Jersey. 1. Do you intend to run Southampton Leisure plc with similar borrowing and thus interest coverage as you do Merlion plc and also a similar dividend policy? 2. £1,008,378 in dividends was taken out of Merlion plc in the financial year ending December 31st, 2003. Taxable profits before taxation were £569,069. Did you get the 50% round the wrong way that year?

...and this. Thursday, 29 June 2006 Lowe claims the currenty board offer stability. He also attacked Wilde's manifesto, saying he sees no signs of a big money investor. Wilde's counter claims are that Lowe can hardly call for stability from a standpoint of having 10 managers in as many years, and that they have investors ready to pump in funds as soon as Lowe departs. Saints' management team of George Burley and Sir Clive Woodward have been paraded to confirm their contentment with the current board, while the Wilde bunch have rolled out some big guns to fire off support. The big calibre ordnance includes former BBC chairman and City big-shot Gavyn Davies, ex-Saints boss Lawrie McMenemy, and former Dell hero Mike Channon.

This is worth a read....

This thread is about posts fans have made that were wrong, TBF and I have to say, this part of my post was totally wrong: "He (Wilde) is in too deep to make peace with Lowe," :smt044 You couldn't make it up, could you, Duncan?

It was a bit worse than that. Wilde threatened legal action via his attack poodle, Legg: From: Keith To: Guided Missile Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:15 pm Subject: I think.. ..your posts about Wilde's personal finances could be construed as possibly libellous. He has given you a response and won't talk further on the subject. I think you've tried to made a point and like many of yours, they are based on half arsed information and your own agenda. From: Guided Missile To: Keith Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2006 4:28 pm Subject: Re: I think So Mike Wilde has threatened to sue me and you for libel, has he Keith? Listen, you well know my post was pure conjecture regarding his personal finances. With regard to Merlion plc, my information was based on the returns he files with Companies' House, so that post was hardly libellous. By the way, I have no agenda but finding out as much as I can about someone who is about to control the football club I support. I expect the same transparency from Rupert Lowe. Look in the mirror and ask yourself what your agenda is. By the way, if Mr Wilde is threatening to sue me for libel, my lawyers details are : Contact: ******** ******** ******** ******** ****** does all my corporate legal work and is a really nice guy. PS I don't really want my tenner back, just this site's impartiality.

Makes me wonder about Crouch, Corbett et al and their choice of candidate...

Crouch and Trant don’t beat about the bush in meeting with the fans 10:42am Friday 16th June 2006 By Echo Reporter » IT was supposed to be the night when key members of Michael Wilde's proposed new board delivered their mission statement to fans. Potential chief executive Jim Hone, operations manager Lee Hoos and chairman Ken Dulieu were aiming to tell supporters just why they should be trusted with the running of their club if Rupert Lowe loses the EGM. But in the absence of their manifesto the publication of which has been delayed due to legal technicalities the evening turned into a showcase for Patrick Trant and Leon Crouch's passion for Saints to come through. Trant was a last-minute addition to the top table for the first half of the meeting at the Northam Social Club. But, after Portugal-based former policeman and financial investigator Delieu and ex-Fulham pair Hone and Hoos had all introduced themselves, it was local businessman Trant head of Trant Construction who got the assembled fans cheering and applauding. CENTRE OF ATTENTION: From left Lee Hoos, Jim Hone, Ken Dulieu and Patrick Trant speak to Saints fans at the Northam Social Club last night. Picture: Nick Day.

We are in no position to "agree to a steady reduction in overdraft facility" or otherwise. That is down to Barclays. The main reason for this is that Wilde and management team assembled by him managed to turn a cash mountain of £4.8M into a £4.4M deficit. The inference in this thread is totally laughable. IF anyone deliberately intended to bring this club to its knees, then Wilde did. Personally, I think he did that through no malice but a heavy dose of ineptitude and ego. He was helped by the pea brained individuals who couldn't see through him, too blinded by their class based hatred of Lowe. They include Crouch all the way down to the Saints Trust and your hero accountant, Um Pahars. As far as cashflow, I would think that Lowe is well on his way to balancing the books and that further asset sales and income savings will place us on an even keel. If we can lose no more than £100K a month for the rest of the season, we will be generating over £500k a year in cash to keep the banks happy. I think people need to get a grip. Administration is light years away....

Just to jump in here, before I get back to real work, the assumption that if you lose money month by month, you aren't in a position to reduce an overdraft, is total ******. It totally ignores capital losses and depreciation that, amongst other things, may contribute towards those losses. The only thing that Dave Jones and Rupert should be worrying about is the amount of cash being generated by the business, which can be used to reduce the overdraft. One final question to ask UP is why he earns (IMHO) a shedload less than Jonah, if he is a financial genius. Maybe he's taken an oath of poverty.... Reminds me of the old saying: "Those that can, do, those that can't, teach..."

The reason we got into this mess is very simple and was confirmed by Crouch to me. The executive directors were given the task of finding a buyer for the club. The value of the shares was related not to our wage bill or profitability, but our position in the league/prospects for promotion. The executive directors were likely to get a fat pay packet themselves and/or a bonus, on the successful sale of the club. They simply gambled with any money available on mediocre players and money grabbing agents (McMenemy jr. anyone ?). The best part for them is that it wasn't their money. SISU saw them for what they were and ran off to Coventry, pulling the rug from under them. Mind you, it nearly came off until Leon Best had a mare...and also ran off to Coventry.

Great to hear that, Ron. Kipling has for many years, been totally non-PC, but I think anyone that takes the time to read some of his work, can't fail to appreciate that things don't change that much over a century. I think Barack Obama should read this verse, from "The White Man's Burden". Take up the White Man's burden - Ye dare not stoop to less - Nor call too loud on Freedom To cloak your weariness; By all ye cry or whisper, By all ye leave or do, The silent sullen peoples Shall weigh your Gods and you.