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The true 'battleground' - where it actually matters


badgerx16
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According to the Electoral Reform Society, this link gives an analysis of all constituencies based on how 'safe' or 'marginal' they are. ( https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgdO92JOXxAOdHRGZmRTOWItcnFDTFpHMzRPRmF6RFE&hl=en )

 

From this, they state that regardless of swing or any other factor, the parties will effectively start with the following number of results 'in the bag' :

 

Britain's 'Safe' Parliament

Party Safe Seats %

Con 172 45.03%

Lab 165 43.19%

LD 29 7.59%

PC 2 0.52%

SNP 3 0.79%

NI others 11 2.88%

 

That is 382 of the 646 seats in Parliament where the donkey with the coloured ribbon will be returned.

 

The seats that matter are the marginals and they are classified as

 

Category Number

Marginal1 – a Labour seat that was marginal in 2005 but probably won’t be in 2010 because it is highly vulnerable and will probably fall easily 43

Marginal2 – the real front line between Labour and Conservative government 78

Marginal3 – a seat Labour could lose if the election goes badly, but at the moment is probably likely to remain Labour 45

LD long shot – Often Lib Dem seat gains are not closely related to the apparent vulnerability on the numbers from last time. These seats are ones where a ‘left field’ gain cannot be ruled out, or seats where despite a fairly small majority over Lib Dem their chances of winning are not enough to qualify it as a true marginal 15

Marginal – a marginal seat held by a party other than Labour, including Con/LD seats, a few Con/Lab seats, SNP seats, LD seats, NI etc 75

3WAY – a three way marginal (these are rare) 12

 

Therefore, this election is all about the Marginal2 & Marginal3 seats. Out of interest, both So'ton seats are Labour Marginal3.

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I think Southampton could be classed as a Marginal2 based on the city council results.

I'm not sure how much the local counts carry forward to national elections, in similar fashion to the Euro polls I think voters tend to take account of the context of the election and cast their ballot accordingly. Westminster polls are not determined by who will get the dog sh*t off children's play areas.

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I'm not sure how much the local counts carry forward to national elections, in similar fashion to the Euro polls I think voters tend to take account of the context of the election and cast their ballot accordingly. Westminster polls are not determined by who will get the dog sh*t off children's play areas.

 

No, but in a general election there are sometimes anomolies to the national trend based on local issues.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/briefing/elections/news/2242014.Tories_sweep_into_power_in_Southampton/

 

Tory group leader councillor Alec Samuels said: "The public did not care for a Lib Lab pact because they weren't consulted."

 

Tory deputy leader councillor Royston Smith said: "We always said the public would judge them and their unholy alliance. Tonight they have done so and we've decapitated both heads of the beast. Labour are a spent force in the city."

 

Whether the bad image of Labour and Liberals in Southampton translates to a general election is debateable, but I do think memories of the unholy alliance will favour the Tories.

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