Frank's cousin

I'll indulge you for a moment although should be working... First up We can ONLY talk hyperthetically because no off us know what NC is planning and guestimates seem to be ranging from 40-58k and in realism land that probably means and increase to 42k or so. Quite rightly there is no point talking about catchmenta reas or highest attendance or size of the club blah blah because all that tells us is that for some prem games we can sell out 32k, nothing more, nothing less. What NC appears to be talkng about is all about BUILDING the club to something bigger than it has been. Now quite rightly you are questioning whether this is even possible and the natural cautious approach would suggest waiting until we know for certain that there is is sufficient demand. Now I would agree this seems sensible, but with a large BUT. If NC is thinking about growing the club, this means driving that growth through a number of avenues - one is obviously have a product that is appealing to more people, that generates more interest amongst kids especially, and also makes those occasionals want to go more... now you can do that through on the field success and I am sure as we see when we are in the prem, we have greater attendances than in the NPC..all logical. But unlike Arsenal and Spurs, the current figures show we do not have any more fans that are prepared to attend more often at the current price point - Those clubs do - nowt we can do about that. IF NC believes that we would have plenty more attending regularly at current or higher prices and this in itself is enough to justify an expansion, I believe he is misguided. If on the otherhand he has looked at other models in Europe, tried to learn how they have driven growth in fan numbers, etc, then IT MAY have crossed his mind that we could attrcat a higher regular attendance if we had SOME, not all more affordable tickets for a section of the ground and other concession categories. If that were the case, then I am sure there would be plenty of scenario analysis and costing/revenue forecasts done to see what would be workable... I have no clue if he has looked at this or not, but to dimiss it out of hand when its clear as fricken day that you probaly could make it work financially seems churlish. You go on and on about realism - well the only thing we know right now is that this expansion idea does apear to a be realistic aim of NC - I am merely trying to understand and formulate an idea of how he would make it workable, given that at the curent price point there is insufficient demand and that in my opinion even Top 6 success is unlikely to chnage that week in week out at these prices or higher. I dont see what is so unrealistic about that and if you feel its a waste of time, fair enough, dont join in, but you seem strangely drawn to thos subjects that you feel are a waste of time.... Think that says a fair bit more about you than me.

Think you'll find that is the point I am making

Wasn't Keegan signed on wages of £175k a YEAR! That would be like signing Messi on 10k a week in todays terms... Unbelieveable.

What we cant assume we would get 50K a week!! FFS why not? Interest is always linked to success - people want be associated with it - yes there are always more folk willing to part with cash when there is a trophy at stake... or a trip to a final. But if we have footballing success, and want a higher regular attendance, IMHO it can only happen if the price is more accessable - I am just intrigued as to how we can do that - whichI think is a fair question. I believe that we will have greater demand if prices are lower in certain sections, with success driving demand in higher priced in posh seats and corporates.... the model they use in Germany.

Serously though of course the development costs, extra policing, extra stewards, and other cost of sales have t be factored in and the economics of it are not straight forward - BUT ido believe that you COULD have a model that would account for these factors AND still result in a more acceptable price point for tickets in certain sections of the ground - if the club chose to... As repeated countless times, I would like to know kind of strategy NC has in mind when considering filling an expanded stadium that is all. Why? Because I would love to see us sell out 40k a fortnight based on a fair and structured pricing policy that does not disenfranchise a whole group of supporters.

Dont think anyone was taking 58k seriousl Kracken - 5 to 8000 yes, but not 58k

As Sour says, there is a big cost involved, even if there was the politcal wiill... as I understand it the rake for standing and the width of the tread is different for the safe standing spec.

I suspect if he thinks that, he has not yet done any market research. We have to acknowldge that what makes other clubs 'bigger' is greater regular attandances - the image this conveys, the media interest, the attraction to players when combined with anticipated and real success etc... Dont discount the 'size of my stadium' ego factor in this either - this will not drive a decision obvously, but it will drive the desire to find a workable and pragmatic solution/business plan to make is feasible.

1. I am not sure the 50 fan ownership has any impact on the viabilty or not of the financial model they sue, it may be a driver behind it 2. I dont see why you say the WHOLE of football has to change. The only way it would ever change is if some clubs make a decsion to do so, refusing to accet that the pricing as its heading is in the best interests of the game, the fans and the clubs longer term. I am not saying this IS the way to go, I am not saying its the ONLY solution, I am not saying NC is going to do it, but this whole question always comes back to a simple fact - there is simply no point in having a bigger ground unless you can fill it and by doing so INCREASE net revenues. I am simply proposing that that the ONLY solution I can think of that would achieve both these aims is a different financial model, proven to work elsewhere - and if thsi is NOT in NCs thinking, what is?

You may well be totally 100% right.... but question for you. Do you think that IF NC is SERIOUS about expansion, he would or would not have looked at other financial models such as those in Germany (where they are sold out each eek and doing pretty well) in order to understand how they fill it each week... given that he knows we CURRENTLY do not sell out every week at the current prices...?

Such an enlightening contibution - so far no other clubs have been mentioned.... you are safe though, no one is going to bully you.

FFS Turks, no I have not done a detailed financial model, not sure that is required, but simple maths on adding 10000 at £15 + adding £5 to the cost of another 10000 + a £10-£15 beer and food spend would see a revenue of increase of around £400-£500k a match - £9 mill a season. Factor in additional cost of sales and paying an element to cover the investment cost (say 2mil a season), and we would still see a net Postive contribution to the bottom line each season... its not that difficult. Whether there would ever be teh WILL at the club to invest 30mil or so for an extra 4-5 mil a sesason IS another matter, but I dont know of another way we would get 42K let alone 48K a week without a substantial revamp of the pricing structure... you tell me how if NC is serious on this?

Exactly, so If NC IS serious about expansion, I want to know the strategy for filling it - as I believe we have enough interest in football in the city and surounding area, If its affordable, but not at current prices. I do NOT believe that anyone serious in football business would not at Least look at the way the Bundesliga clubs crawled their way out of financial problems, and now have the highest attendance and some of the most successful clubs in Europe for what was for such a long time an unfashionble league - One in which MOST fan and supporter groups would WELCOME in this country... but lets all stick our collective heads up our backsides, moan about pricing, but refuse to entertain any model that is different that could address this. We are not Spurs or Arsenal, we dont ahve the waiting lists of mugs wanting to pay £1000 a season - but we do have many thousand who would increase the frequency of attending - possibly even get an ST if it was more affordable..

Fail 1. Its not £20 for the 'posh seats - its £5 more than current pricing with the rest left as is or there abouts - a model PROVEN to work as mentioned previously. 2. The 'properly marketed' refers to the spend by fans AT the ground - ensuring beer/food and environment is good enough to ensure fans spend money 3. Read the bit again about how the investmnet cost 'COULD' be covered in 4 years, but as stated with these things the investmnet is usually spread over 10-15 years meaning a NET positive contribution each season - or did you not bother reading anything? (as is pretty typical of you Mr Angry feckwit appraoch to responding) 4. The classic 'Englander' rsponse to these things seems to be, It costs £20+ for L2, why should it be cheaper in the Prem' - well would you say £20 in L2 represents value and is priced to encourage greater attendance? 5. Take your head out your backside for 5 minutes and a) recognise we are talking hyperthetically, so getting all precious about it seems pathetically juvenile, b) Why when it comes to prcing are fans desperate to complain about the cost of football pricing out the 'traditional' demographic, yet the moment anyone 'hyperthetically' suggests a model, that is PROVEN to work in other countries and COULD 'hyperthetically' work in this country if there was a WILL, and would allow a club like saints to generate an increase in NET income, allow more fans the opportunity - you are so fricken negative towards it? Football in this country will NOT change if no clubs or fans are supportive of change. An expansion could enable us to generate increased revenue whilst at teh same time encouraging greater demand through a different pricing model. NC may not agree or even look at, feck knows, but someone has yet to tell me how if he does have expansion plans, how he expects to fill it at £35-£45+ a ticket - that is certainly guarranteed.

Fear not pap, I have heard from an insider that I can not name for fear of reprisals (think cheese wire, testicles etc)that teh planned meeting between Cortese and MLT is actually as they have now decside it will be a stature of each of them high fiving - but there are potential problems as NC wants to be depicted as taller than MLT so this may boil on yet.

Makes financial sense as soon as teh overall match day revenue is greater than we have now. The number crunching on price bands for diffrent parts of the ground, offsetting cheaper sections to greater extent to what we currently do - with 42k full we would probably see an extra £300k per match + associated beer/food spend and thats if with 10k seats priced at £15 for an adult with a only a £5 increase say in best centre sections... if properly marketed - that's possibly upto £450k- £500k a match or 9mil a season against against a build cost of approx 30 mil would pay for itself in 4 years - spread over 15 years, and you have increased cash revenue of 6-7 mil a season - maybe not 'huge', but a decent players wages, and you have a better atmosphere, is good for attrcating players etc and you ahve as a club included a broader section of the potential fan base - its posisble to make it work financially. I am not saying it would ever happen, just that as a business model its NOT as ridiculous as some are trying to make out.

Genius - hope you get the design commision Pap

Indeed - 5 to 8000 - would still cost us about 30mil though.

Most know the current stadoum is limited to 46-48 max - so not many 'taken in' really...

You do understand the German model though dont you.... that its a section that is available cheap... not all tickets? Seriously I dont believ he would suddenly move in this direction - but I am intriged as anyone as to what he belives will drive demand to teh extent of filling a 48k staium - because I do not believe success alone will do that at current prices... so what is it Mr C?

Exactly at even £35 we aint going to fill 48k let alone 58k - unless he is afctoring a mass defection form the blue section.... so If we assume w aint going to fill 48k at thes epprices.... how do we change that?

Behave, come back when you have your sensible head on - if you really are struggling with what is a simple question, well tough.

Ok - first up I am not saying will, second if you go back to my original question it was asking what IS Cortese thinking in terms of how he would fill a 48k stadium IF and that a big IF he is really thinking about stadium expansion. But I actualy find this an interesting Di emma and a nice distraction form th work I should be doing so happy to keep going First up lets make some assumptions because this gets way to complaced if we have to factor in commercial rate loans and debt repayment - so lets assume NC has acces sto say 50mil in a trust left by Markus that can only be used for infrastructure development. (I know its pure speculation, but remember I am trying to figure out what might be driving this from from NCs perspective) 1. Assumes he wants to push on and see Saints achieve a 'BIgger club' To do this we need to first be successful on the pitch - that means prem survival, consolidation and progression to the top 6 - lets assume that happens It means regular European football to become a household footballing name outside of the SO post code It means improving our status within the game and a large empty stadium will not do that - for that w eneed to fill it. So the first question is, would we ever fill a 48 seater regularly based on footballing success alone? I dont think we would because currently I believe our attendance is 'capped' by how many can afford to go given the current prices of tickets irrespective of any future success - Future success that may see a rise in corporate revenue, but will not fill larger terraces. So what COULD be done? I believe that if he is even thinking about expansion he will look at examples elsewhere in Europe for how clubs of a similar size have navigated through stadium expansion and driven growth in attendance - good examples are Bayer Leverkusen who for years were stuck in a 22k staudium and often not sold out and redeveloped to the new Bayarena at 30k and sold out most games - for a small club mixing it with Europe elite now and again - but also the pricing model - where cheaper seats and offset against more expensive and corporate, ensuring no group is disenfranchised from attending. But he will be aware that this may seem like stupidity/nonsense, given the pricing culture in the UK - so what other methods are avaialble to a club to increase demand if success on the pitch is simply never going to do it if we are stuck with this pricing model? I cant think of any.... But a question for you, There is nothing to STOP saints adopting any pricing model they chose, indeed would not a unilateral shift by saints towards a German pricing model not be welcomed by fans and supporters groups, or should we we worried about ridicule from the masses? Several posters have stated that the only rational time to expand is when we have 1000s on a waiting list. My argument is that if we wait for that we will never expand - it wont happen, prices would just go up and the demographic would be even more skewed towards the affluent middle classes - thats the nature of the beast. BUt just imagine IF saints did put fans at the centre of their plans - recognising that with success on the pitch there would be the desire to come, provided it was affordable? I know many think NC is a complete ***t, but I doubt he will be ignoring the fact that there are a great many fans out their that currently can not attend...

And you believe Saints would build something we do not need? No due diligence, no strategic planning, contingency plannig etc? We have always only bene talking hyperthetically and that is what you dont see (or refuse to show to keep the thread going...and going...) You think there would not be a thorough and far more indepth analysis than anything we can think of done in advance of any such major investment? OK hyperthetical question: how do you think the club/saints would be perceived by the rest of football if say we build 48k capacity AND did go against the pricing policy in this country and adopted a German type model - would we be applauded by fan groups or laughed at as naive and stupid (assuming teh cost of this is covered by Markus;'s cash so no commercial loans to worry about)? How many do you think we could get if a 16yo could get in for £12-15 and our average adult price was £25 or less - would you expect more attending? or less attending because we had undermined the 'brand value'....

I think you are confusing the situation and mixing two seperate points again Turks - NORMAL business practice would as you say suggest waiting... and waiting .. to see if you can grow demand purel on success and have 1000s on ST waiting lists will to pay £700-£800 for an ST... I agree that this logic, albeit oversimplied apears rational and in line with traditianl business thinking. BUT ask any entrepeur and they will tell you that to be successful you have to think differently and for some businesses - not all (so please dont qote your Apple Ipad example again - that is about brand value and a different Kettle of fish) you have the opportunity to DRIVE demand, not through brand appeal, or advertsing, but through expanding accessibilty - If you are looking for a business example, unlike Apple who happily maintain high price to maintain brand value, knowing its also at a price point that is obtainable but not cheap - think Henry Ford - turning pipe dream aspiration into affordable product for the masses by applying new manafacturing techniques to achieve a price point that most could afford. The FSF, the Government and half the fans on here have been lamenting the fact that football is no longer affordable to the working class masses. A good business man wil lok at that and think: and think ... and think about HOW he could tap back into that market segment - a segment that is loyal, spends a fair few quid on beer, foot etc... how many are there, how many kids OAPs that would all spend money if only it were affordable... So you look at all models in all markets and see what you can learn - now it may be that it woudl not work because you are fighting against a culture that would need to shift.... but simply dismissing it out of hand is possibly why you do what you do, and NC is possibly slightly better remunerated... dont you think?