TopGun

Where's the scandal Dune? :confused: Denham and Whitehead are not involved at all as wholly as cleared by the Legg inquiry. Are you getting confused with various moat and duck house MPs?

I think we are all aware that you are an arch right-winger Dune but most of us can like politicians who are in parties that are not of our own natural choices. The problem with you is that you change your alliegances more quickly than most people can turn a switch a light on. Are you capable of professing a like for anyone in Labour?

I think that is OTT TBF. To satisfy you Dune, I will write to him about that. Nevertheless, he is an outstanding MP.

Mmmmm.... 237th of MPs on the expenses list as a Cabinet Minister who might have to spend a fair amount of time in the Smoke eh Dune. http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/john_denham/southampton%2C_itchen#expenses £25 a week on house cleaning. £400 for a new washing machine. Do you want ministers to live under the arches at Waterloo? You really need to get a perspective Dune. Those are cheap London costs. Where's his duck house and moat? Where are his first class rail expenses?

I entirely agree with all these points although Portsmouth as a subject is just a part of a more important wider issue. The PL is as bent, crooked, mercenary as Mugabe's regime. Portsmouth is merely the current focus of a far wider problem.

In Southampton terms you could slice 10% votes off both John Denham and Alan Whitehead and give it to the Tories and they would both still get back to Parliament. They both had close to 50% last time with the remainder split fairly equally between Tories and LDs. Equally importantly, before JB and others lay into me for being a leftie, both Denham and Whitehead have built solid reputations as Southampton MPs as well as Labour MPs. So that counts for a bit also. Also, remember that whilst Denham is a member of Brown's Cabinet, he resigned as one of Blair's ministers over the Iraq war. Irrespective of party, I think both are quite principled, are not lunatics, had no part in MP expenses scandals, and are good MPs for Southampton.

In Southampton terms you could slice 10% votes off Denham and Whitehead and give it to the Tories and they would both still get back to Parliament. They both had close to 50% last time with the remainder split fairly equally between Tories and LDs. Equally importantly, before JB and others lay into me for being a leftie, both Denham and Whitehead have built reputations as Southampton MPs as well as Labour MPs. So that counts for a bit also. Also, remember that whilst Denham is a member of Brown's Cabinet, he resigned as one of Blair's ministers over the Iraq war. Irrespective of party, I think both are quite principled, are not lunatics, had no part in MP expenses scandals, and are good MPs for Southampton.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/30/the-liberal-moment-has-come Can't agree with that editorial rationale myself as there are too many big holes in the LDs manifesto IMO but it was clear that it was coming over the last few days by the paper's stories. Looks like the Mirror will be the only Labour paper this time around as the Independent has got very Cameronesque in the last two weeks also. I think the question now is what is Labour's lowest possible popular vote. I still can't see it going below 28% on polling day which still has everything up in the air.

How does Polish immigration affect the infrastructure of the greater lazy unemployed in Rochdale or elsewhere?

It's an interesting secenario in many ways. You have the Tories offering up the best talent that they have for this election in terms of front bench material and it isn't startlying good. Osborne is very weak and the markets know that. Villiers is prob quite good but not being used properly as is the case with a couple of others. Otherwise the cupboard looks a bit bare. Labour might have better people but they are being overshadowed by Brown and his kingpins like Straw and Harman. Johnson is the natural successor in many ways as a moderate with a clean record but himself maybe viewed as too much associated with Brown. The younger generation of Milibands, Jim Murphy, Andy Burnham etc are reasonable bets longer term but they have to toe the line at the moment. John Denham would play a valuable part in a younger Labour front bench too as he is unimpeachable having resigned over the Iraq war previously on principle.

Good post by CB Fry. It is interesting to read the verbiage posted by candidates for the likes of UKIP on their own sites. Most are far too blinkered to do a proper job.

Gordon Brown would have first dibs at forming a coalition (minority government). That's where the bartering would occur. Somewhere along the line a deal would be struck, if not with Brown, then with Cameron. But the prices asked by the LDs and nationalists would be possibly too high for a coalition to last very long. Thence another election called to clear the air like 1974.

I think a hamstrung minority government such as the one voted in in Feb 1974 (minority Lab) causes voter polarisation so that the ensuing election (Oct 1974 in that case) produces a more clear cut result. It's a natural tendancy.

Convention offers the previous government the opportunity to try and form a coalition first of all.

FPTP doesn't allow for that. Too much core red in the urban areas and core blue in the rural areas. Labour "imploded" in 1983 as did the Tories in 1997. Both were still far larger parties than the Liberals/LDs after each election. Arguably we have been here before with your scenario VFTT as far as Labour are concerned because the SDP came out of that after 1983 and lasted a mere few years before merging with the old Liberal Party to first form the Alliance and then the LDs as we have today. The LDs did not benefit from that in the long term.

TBF Rochdale has been LD territory for years. It was Cyril Smith's seat. It is only boundary changes that make it Labour potential.

That's 11 seats or thereabouts which is potentially a lot of Parliament votes one way or another as a bloc at the moment.

You have a PM Dune. (not prime minister :-) )

As SNP and Plaid are basically on the same page as Labour on most issues, Cameron would have to concede a huge amount of extra self-legislation to Scotland and Wales for that to happen. I don't think that is feasible given that such a minority government would likely have to go to the electorate again in a year or so.

Comres due out at 10pm officially, so most recent of all. Con 36, Lab 29, LD 26. Which is Con 280, Lab 264, LD 77, others 29.

I get those figures as Con 267, Lab 250, LD 104, Others 29.

Where is your poll published Dune? ukpollingreport shows the one I quoted as the most recent.

I think retrospectively Brown's advisors also may have got the apology business wrong. It may have worked better if Brown had said sorry for his comment but added that many immigrants have added a lot to the economy. Could have appealed well to the Asian vote etc. All a bit kneejerk on all sides IMO.

It's on the BBC - breaking news bit in the election section.

Actually I'm quoting the latest poll just released Dune. In tomorrow's Sun.