coalman

We won the last time you predicted 2-0 (albeit only 1-0) so I'm here for this prediction.

That's where we're headed.

For all I loved some of our play last season I would hope Martin's brief went slightly beyond getting us promoted. When he joined we'd just been relegated, our confidence was shot to pieces and we had lots of players that didn't fit in. 2 years on it's likely that we'll just have been relegated, our confidence shot to pieces and even more players we can't move on.

McCarthy will have a point to prove. Bednarek has just been keeping Captain Jack's place warm and isn't able to influence the game as much from a roving left back midfield role as he'd like. Playing in the middle gives him the perfect position to watch the ball as Liverpool bring it forward. We will miss Bednarek's league leading passing stats. It also allows Manning to move back to left back giving Salah no chance to shine down that flank. If we also are without Downes then we've got a ready made replacement in Lallana to anchor the midfield and give us much needed bite in the tackle. Shutting that door as well. The stars are aligning for Russball.

Charity shop window? Saints to start brightly. Then fade. The only disappointment is Klopp won't be there to praise Martin at the end so he'll have to make do with Slot's bemused indifference. Men Vs Boys with the boys of Liverpool to come out on top.

Before anyone asks, the hamster is holding out for the Leicester job.

That horrible moment when Gio thought we were Indiana Jones then realised we're the comic relief.

At the very least the opposing fullback knows he's going to be pressure on the outside and that Edozie isn't just going to just check back and pass backwards so we'd have a chance of stretching play. Edozie was making real progress until he got injured last season then Rothwell and Brooks were brought in and then he got frozen out. Nowadays we play either Manning or Armstrong out left.

You state that this is the only way to fight the fascism if the premier league like we're fighting some noble fight. We are not some plucky freedom fighters bucking the system. We're the problem gambler walking into the casino with their paycheque thinking it's going to be different this time.

We truly are the victim of many crimes this season.

For the crime of being unworthy I sentence you to... Russball

The other four teams could also point to things which went against them. Everton for starters against us.

No chance of that. Martin doesn't see the point in defensive midfielders

It's funny how football fans only remember the times they were unlucky.

Let's examine how lucky we've been over the course of the season. v Newcastle 0-1 (xG 1.95 - 0.43) we had the chances to win this but - we failed to capitalise on them going down to 10 men and gave away a stupid goal v Nottm Forest 0-1 (xG 0.21 - 2.86) we were lucky not to lose by more v Brentford 1-3 (xG 1.65 - 3.86) so about what we deserved from the game v Man Utd 0-3 (xG 1.36 - 3.03) we missed a penalty and then folded but again seems to be what we deserved v Ipswich 1-1 (xG 2.90 - 1.65) we deserved more from the game but failing to mark properly at a corner gave them a goal at the death v Bournemouth 1-3 (xG 0.70 - 1.44) we deserved to lose though Bournemouth didn't create as much as the scoreline suggested v Arsenal 1-3 (xG 1.27 - 3.25) we got what we deserved after a plucky opening v Leicester 2-3 (xG 2.43 - 2.84) we conceded late goals including failing to mark from a corner again but Leicester had the better chances overall v Man City 0-1 (xG 0.37 - 3.16) we were lucky not to lose by more v Everton 1-0 (xG 0.54 - 1.79) we we lucky to win the game, Everton created more and better chances and had a goal disallowed that was marginal (and given the time taken probably not a clear and obvious error) v Wolves 0-2 (xG 0.79 - 0.91) Wolves deserved to win barely - however, we didn't trouble the goalkeeper. Had a goal disallowed that might have stood on another day If you look at the quality of chances created then, other than against the 10 men of Newcastle and Ipswich where we gave away silly goals we come out worst in every single game. Our only win wasn't exactly a display to build confidence from. Throw in the fact we've given away more chances by mistakes passing around the back than any other team, are the worst at defending from crosses and can't turn possession into chances it's hard to look at those results and say we're unlucky to be where we are in the table. In the games where it has been close then our style of football has led to us dropping points - that's not luck - that's tactics. The idea that we've just had bad luck is an example of what is known as Outcome Bias in decision making. It means we fail to learn and adapt because we assume that when something goes against us it's out of our hands and when something goes for us it's because we did something good. It's telling that we have turned some good positions into defeats - but those have all come because of the way we play not because we're unlucky. Watching Martin purring over the praise he got from Pep the other week was telling. It reminded me of one of my favourite quotes from the Basketball coach, Doc Rivers. Average players want to be left alone, good players want to be coached, great players want to be told the truth. In the case of our manager, he gets so prickly when anyone questions his style. He operates on the basis that it's just bad luck that we are where we are. Then we start saying it's because our players aren't good enough to play his system - the players he oversaw the recruitment of during the summer. If the players aren't good enough - play a different system. If the system is good enough then why should we expect to lose almost every single game we play? Gio, I get that you want Saints to do well but simply restating your belief that it's going to turn around and this is the only to challenge the footballing super powers is not grounded in any kind of reality.

Russball knows the first thing you have to do is silence the crowd.

Don't cross the streams

I'm not asking what SR's targets are - I'm asking what you would want to see. For example - you said that you'd be ok to keep Martin if we were relegated but didn't get relegated next season. So where you would be happy with at Christmas to feel confident the plan is working? What would you want to see if we were relegated to feel confident that Martin was the correct manager to keep next season? Let me give you an example - one metric you might use to determine whether we're in a good spot would be to compare the xG and xGA for each match to see if we're making better opportunities than our opponents. So, hypothetically, if we're consistently expected to concede 1 or more goal more than our opponents every game then would you consider that to be a sign that our style / plan isn't working?

I can't believe we're that good against through ball attacks, protecting the lead, aerial duels and finishing scoring chances.

What would sufficient progress against the plan look like? In particular - where should we be right now? Where should we be by the end of December? Where should we be by the end of the season? How will we know the plan is working?

Out of curiosity - what would need to happen or you to see in order to change your opinion of Russell Martin as a manager? What would be the tipping point for you to think that we needed a change? How long should we keep persisting with our current approach both with Martin and also as a club under Sport Republic?

I have it on good authority that the chimpanzee just accepted an offer from Jim Radcliffe to join Man Utds back room staff. It also had an offer from Todd Boehly to join Chelsea but thought there were too many monkeys there already.

You're assuming they're not just using the player stats from Football Manager...