Luke SkyWalker-Peters

I think the strategy is clear. They are trying to bank the money raised to spend on players when promoted. If we spent £100m on players now, we would just end up with a squad full of Championship players. Top players aren't going to sign for us. If we spend that £100m next summer (along with the extra Premier League promotion cash) we could build a midtable Premier League squad fairly easily. That's why the loans are useful, so that we don't have to hold onto the likes of Downes, Fraser and Holgate who have not proved themselves as established Premier League players and are on high wages. The only players they have looked interested in buying for a fee (Charles and Wood) are young, on cheap wages and have the potential to develop into Premier League players. I'm confident that we would have been interested in signing them had we not been relegated. Martin said that there will be players that are here to help us get promoted, but won't be with us for the journey beyond that. This is clearly a reference to the loan players, but having cost nothing I suspect it could include Manning too and perhaps other low cost signings. Obviously there is an element of risk that we might not get promoted this season. Leicester have gone all-in on this season with a massive wage bill and will be in serious trouble if they don't get promoted, whereas we are in a strong position to push for promotion for the next 3 seasons with our funds and young squad. It depends on what you classify as risk.

In a vacuum, Fraser is smart business. Very good for this level and can play everywhere except GK and CB to a good standard. Seems people are just worried about who is going to make way. I'm hopeful that its Aribo, who has had some offers reported, or Djenepo. Would be a shame to lose Sulemana or Tella - I think we could handle losing one, but both would make promotion a tough task.

It's not flashy but this window was all about the players that we hold onto. That's how teams go straight back up. Even Leeds confirmed this with some research they commissioned - before subsequently letting their whole team leave for nothing lol. We have done a good job of shifting some of the deadwood (Orsic, Diallo, DCC), but it would obviously be good to get rid of more. The squad is still too big and we need more outgoings than incomings. But the priority needs to be holding onto the players that have interest from better leagues (Tella, Adams, Sulemana, KWP etc). If those players go, then we should get upset about missing out on the likes of Piroe or Aarons. We will not get anywhere near as good players to replace them. How good the window was should be judged on who stays rather than who comes in. I'm sure movement will be ramping up, especially after the weekends games. I'm still positive that we will have one of the best squads in the league by the end of the window. Even if we are still carrying a few duds like Onuachu and Lyanco.

I'm assuming these last few days, especially after this weekend's games, are when the flurry of movement will happen. Teams will assess injuries, players will decide if they need to move down a level to the Championship etc. Is this the current state of things based on the last week or so? Please correct me where I'm wrong: Outgoings: McCarthy - Interest from Palace and Everton. Seems to have cooled. Bella-Kotchap - Interest from Bayern Munich and Dortmund. Both look to be loans, possibly with an option or obligation to buy. Aribo - Interest from Hellas Verona. Tella - Bid rejected from Bayer Leverkusen. They will likely make a substantial offer among reports they will make him the biggest transfer of the summer. Burnley no longer interested. Adams - Bid received from Everton. Value seems to be close to being accepted (or has been accepted), but Everton don't actually want to pay any money. Will be offered a new contract if not sold. Onuachu - Potentially going back to Genk on a swap deal for Paintsil. Incomings: Nathan Wood (CB, 21, Swansea) - Reportedly close to making an approx £10m bid. Taylor Harwood-Bellis (CB, 21, Man City) - Interested, as is Leeds and Leicester. £15m reported price. Djed Spence (RB, 23, Spurs) - Rumoured interest. Spurs will loan. Cody Drameh (RB, 21, Leeds) - Rumoured interest from RM either this summer or in January. Johan Hove (CM, 22, FC Groningen) - Rumoured to be interested and close to activating his relegation release clause. James McAtee (CM, 20, Man City) - Rumoured interest, but likely will go back to Sheffield Utd on loan if no transfer can be agreed. Luca Kerber (CM, 21, Saabrucken) - Rumoured interest. Playing at a much lower level, potentially a Sports Republic signing like Lis? Joseph Paintsil (RW, 25, Genk) - Potential swap deal for Onuachu. Lawrence Shankland (CF, 28, Hearts) - Rumoured interest. Joel Piroe (CF, 23, Swansea) - Interested. Leeds are more proactive in trying to sign him. Likely Saints will only do so if Adams leaves. Anything credible that I've missed? I'm sure we will have some late surprises when players suddenly become available. I can see us doing deals right to the end with those 4 loan spots still available.

Yeah, obviously. But I've seen people here claiming that he's bad at all the other facets, when he isn't. He is in fact very good at everything else, was a horrific shot-stopper last season, but so far this season has been average (i.e. not let in a saveable shot). Preseason had me worried, but in terms of shot-stopping he looks like an average Championship keeper to me. It has only been two games though, so that opinion might change quickly. In my opinion his only poor bit of goalkeeping was on the disallowed goal (parrying it to a player). He looks nervous to me, and the currently unjustified negativity from this season won't help. I'm hoping he will just save the ones he should save and gain consistency this season. If he is just around average, then that should be good enough considering how few shots we should be conceding. We won't get a replacement, he is too good with the ball at his feet compared to other keepers. Martin has conceded a lot of goals from passing it round the back, but it is hard to see that being a common occurrence with Bazunu looking so comfortable with the ball. He will also help us score some goals by drawing opposition players out. Goalkeepers rarely like competition. It causes doubt, drains confidence and effects their performance. I doubt the club will bring in a real challenger as the no.2 GK.

Well, the eye-test and the data suggests they were pretty close to unstoppable: Post-shot XG is seen as the best way to judge a GK's shot stopping. Essentially, if a shot is smashed into the top corner from 1 yard out, it would be calculated as high probability to score (close to 1), if it is hit at the centre of the goal from 40 yards out it will be calculated as low probability to score (close to 0). So goalkeepers who are conceding less goals than the PSXG are performing well. https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/keepersadv/Championship-Stats#all_stats_keeper_adv A post-shot XG of 4.6 to the 5 goals he has let in, which suggest that, yes, there has just been some exceptional finishing against us on the goals that went in (as I'm sure we can agree that his 2 saves were fairly routine). I think this supports most people's eye tests. It's only been 2 games, its not a shock that we have been 'unlucky'. Goal Wednesday - volley from 10 yards out into the bottom corner. (PSXG won't factor that he initially had to cover the header on the other side of goal, so was forced even worse out of position). https://youtu.be/DC2Z8q7YRJE?t=69 1st goal Norwich - Header in the top corner at the far post from a yard out. Impossible cross to collect. (PSXG won't factor that he had to cover the front post for another attacker). https://youtu.be/S4esIDoqadw?t=47 2nd goal Norwich - Screamer from the edge of the area into the top corner from a completely unimpeded player. (Probably his easiest to save, PSXG won't factor that he was unsighted by Bednarek though). https://youtu.be/S4esIDoqadw?t=308 3rd goal Norwich - Perfect looping header, just inside the post from an unmarked defender 7 yards out. 4th goal Norwich - Volley from the penalty spot into the bottom corner. (PSXG doesn't take into account that Bazunu was preparing for a possible pass-back before Manning shit the bed) https://youtu.be/S4esIDoqadw?t=549 I don't think there are many keepers in the world that would have stopped these goals. I very much doubt there will be one that we could have in the Championship. In terms of saving shots, he is so far statistically performing like an average Championship keeper. His save % is currently not a reflection of the quality of the shots he has conceded. Bazunu was horrific last season by the eye-test, and was the worst performing keeper in Europe's top 5 leagues in post-shot XG. He couldn't save shots straight at him. https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/2022-2023/keepersadv/2022-2023-Premier-League-Stats This is not what has been happening so far this season and he is being unfairly criticised here in my opinion. It's only been 2 games, if this trend of apparently conceding a large number of great shots continues after a larger dataset has been acquired, then there is a cause for concern. Currently, to me, from the eye test and the data he seems to be doing OK. Personally, I think that shot-stopping is his only weakness and that his distribution, cross-collecting and speed off his line to sweep or close down on a 1v1 is very good.

I honestly think Norwich are going to be one of the best sides we play this season. Having seen them against Hull (and how they themselves dismantled Wednesday today) I'm fairly certain they are going to be in the playoffs at least. To get a draw when the squad is new to the system and we've had a number of players departing (with little incomings) was a good result in my opinion. Stu and Alcaraz in midfield together leaves far too much space defensively. We looked much more cohesive without the ball when Charles replaced Stu. We know Stu and his injury issues means he can't play 90 minutes. I'd suggest against the better teams we should be starting with Downes at DM (assuming that's happening) with Alcaraz and Smallbone as the 8s. Based on the game state; we can bring on Stu if we need a goal or Charles if we need to defend. I'm still more worried about Martin than the squad. I'm certain by the end of the window we will have one of the best squads in the league (possibly the best). His system will need time for the players to feel comfortable. Hopefully he has the ability to make adjustments to make us good enough defensively to get promotion.

Feels different to last season when he was letting in shots that he should have saved. I doubt many keepers would have saved the ones he has let in so far this season. Especially in the Championship.

Please do read what I post as I only have 3 posts per day. 1 win from first 5 games, 15th in the table. 5 wins from first 13 games, they were in the playoff picture. Then (early October) they won 21 out of their next 27 games to secure promotion with 6 games remaining. They only hit their high levels of form in early October. I expect us to be similar. The only variable is how good of a coach Martin is, as we have a much better squad. Although, admittedly, the other contenders for promotion are far better this season.

Not true, because the exact same thing happened with Burnley last season and they walked the league. 15th after 5 games. In the promotion hunt after that, but only really found form by early October. I think we will be better quicker than Burnley, because we have better players, but due to having such a tough September I could see us having a similar trajectory.

Some serious bedwetting in here after one player, that the club expected to leave since the window opened, has left. Only the second player to go that fans wanted to keep, and some are acting like its a fire sale. There is no indication that SR are selling all our players and hoping for midtable. Everyone at the club has said the target this year is promotion. We have held firm in our evaluation of good players to get the maximum fees. We have rejected bids for multiple players who have had interest from the Premier League: Stephens (Bournemouth), Smallbone (Sheff Utd), Alcaraz (Brighton) and Tella (Burnley). Lavia, Bella-Kotchap, Walker-Peters and Adams are the only players that now seem very likely to go and not all of them are a certainty. SR have been clear for their model of selling players like Lavia for five times their cost to work, we have to be in the Premier League. The squad is far too big, and once more of the players who aren't up to standard (many played on Tuesday) are moved then we will see incomings. Some of you are delusional about the state of the Championship. The gulf between the Championship and the Premier League has grown exponentially since we were last here. We have an extremely talented team for this level, that was poorly managed last season. It will take a couple of months for the players to get the system and the results to follow. Our squad, currently, is far better than Burnley's that won the league last season. This year will be tougher, but the Championship has never seen squads of the quality that us and Leicester have before. It would be insane for SR to not try and go up, when the chances of bouncing straight back are always far better in the first year. There is three weeks of the window left. I don't feel like we have missed out on anyone, except possibly Aarons (who we don't want or need if the club feel they can keep KWP). Lets try and wait until we have sold some more dross and Wilcox has had a chance to bring players in before judging him.

Ridiculous. Firstly, you obviously have no idea what we currently have in the academy if you think we have a DM capable of playing anything near Championship football. The only lad we have with that possibility of that in his future just turned 15. Secondly, you're judging him based on a preseason having to play out of position and tonight, his first game at DM, surrounded by a poor supporting cast and then yet again having to fill-in at CB.

I feel sorry for the fans that went, but I'm not surprised we got battered given the team. Stu, Alcaraz, Che and Amo-Ameyaw the only ones that we have seen look like 1st team quality recently. A bunch of players that aren't good, don't fit the system, have just come back from injury or are kids making one of their first senior appearances. Its not a surprise that they are performing far worse than the 1st XI were against a much better side at the weekend. Obviously Martin had to rotate the side as the league is the only important competition this season. This was never important and just an opportunity for depth players to get experience in the system. Its a shame as staying in the competition would have been valuable for the youngsters. Hopefully we put out a better team for the FA Cup.

Shows the gulf between our team on Saturday compared to this lot. Because Wednesday are far, far better than Gillingham.

First game of the season, at Hillsborough, against a newly promoted team, full of big, experienced players, that sit deep, barely press and try to squeak out a win... We all thought this would be a tough game, so well done to the team for getting through it and getting the 3 points. Wednesday aren't a good team at the moment, but I'm certain they will cause some big upsets there this season. The corner is a shame. Personally why I want Charles to be in the team sooner rather than later (essentially an extra CB). Otherwise, completely dominant. The movement in and around the opposition penalty box needs to be worked on. Far too often we didn't have enough numbers forward and no passing options. The patterns that were obvious against Reading have seemingly disappeared. If we got a left-footed goalscorer to play on the RW (Piroe, Amad Diallo?), so that Tella could play LW cutting-in, then I think that is basically a complete team. I understand the clamour for replacements of Armstrong and Che, but I doubt we will get a better striker in. Really good start. I was worried about that game. We will get better in the months ahead. I'm sure the matches will be a better watch overall when teams start trying to take the game to us a bit more, rather than hoping for a set-piece. Delighted with the way the players saw out the win once ahead. That is a big advantage with this style that we just didn't have under Ralph. I doubt we will be leading the league in most points dropped from winning positions this season.

I had a skim through of their last preseason friendly against Luton: Play a 442/4411. Proper lower-league, direct football. They do pass it out the back a fair bit initially though, before launching it to the big target man, so we might have some turnover opportunities with our press. Bannan playing off the target man looks good. Oldest squad in the league, and they look it. Look really solid and experienced. Also look fairly slow and seemed to stop any sort of pressing after 20 minutes. If this was played in a few months on a Saturday at 3pm I'd expect us to thump them. Feels like anything could happen on the first night of the season with a full crowd at a newly promoted Hillsborough. Has a cup game feel to it. Would be a big disappointment to lose this as they have had a chaotic preseason and look a bit disorganised at times. I think our quality will be too much for them. We will have a far better team playing than we did in the League Cup game, which I didn't expect to be the case. Should be comfortable, but I don't feel very comfortable...

One of the best U21 CBs in the world, was in the German World Cup squad and Germany are hosting the Euros next summer. I would say his chances of staying are 0%. I'm sure we will make double our investment on him and he will go to a club in Europe playing Champions League. Good luck to him. Clearly a very good player still early in his career, just think he needs to fully recover from those shoulder and knee issues to stop them becoming a recurring problem.

No, he has been spot on this summer. Clearly got a contact in the club. Actually, the opposite of BS to be fair to him. For instance, he knows Tino isn't in the travelling squad, but hasn't speculated as to why. Just says what he knows. Could be getting sold, could be injured... but he's not speculating like others would to get better interactions. He has broken a number of our stories this summer. Usually just observations that certain players are/aren't in the building or travelling with the team. Seems to me that his contact is fairly low-level within Saints. Very different from the briefings that Blackmore, Alfie House and (to be fair to him) Crook get from the higher-ups. I would consider him our best insider this summer outside of the COT, obviously.

The people who are saying we will finish midtable or lower are hilariously pessimistic. We will be competing for the title this season. The Money Almost always, the team with the best players wins the league. The best players cost the most money. Almost always, the richest clubs win the league. No one likes to admit it, but the teams that have the highest wage bill in any league almost always win. Man City (with some infractions), PSG, Real/Barca, Celtic etc. It takes massive financial ineptitude, only recently seen by Man Utd and Juventus, to fuck that up. Just as the winners of those leagues are easy to predict, so is the Championship. The difference in financial resources within a long-time Premier League team and a Chamionship one is vast and increasing every year. This is not the same league when we got promoted from over a decade ago. We still have our parachute payments and are going to make some large profits on players that don't want to stay. By deadline, through transfers or loans, it would take incredible incompetence rarely seen for us not to have one of the best squads in the league through our spending power alone. TransferMarkt shouldn't be taken as gospel for specific players, but it is a good indicator of team value. Last year, Burnley: Highest value squad (almost double the highest non-relegated team). Walked the league. The year before, Fulham: Highest value squad, won the league. The year before that, Norwich: Highest value squad, won the league. etc. However, the Championship has never had three clubs relegated that dwarf the rest of the league in the manner that Southampton, Leeds and Leicester do. Our squad value is four times that of the highest non-relegated team (Norwich), Leicester three times and Leeds over double. For reference, Man city is under three times the value of Southampton. This quality of teams in the Championship is unprecedented. Yes, some of these players will certainly go (same for all three relegated teams), but Southampton are in a great position under FFP to re-invest most of that into the squad if they so choose. Leicester and Leeds are not. Leeds are in an especially bad situation with their relegation clauses. Even after removing the 10 players most likely to go (and £170m in value), that squad of 19 players (which would obviously be added to) is still double the value of Norwich. Almost always, the richest club win the league. Almost always, the richest club have the highest value team. The Squad We have a far, far better squad than Burnley did last year and they walked the league. We have a lot of good Premier League players who were horrendously mismanaged. Some were bought last summer to transition to a possession based system that we are only starting to see this year (Man City players, Aribo, Caleta-Car etc). We have returning Championship loan players, one of which was named in the league team of the season. We have Stephens back from Bournemouth. We have two quality players, Stu and Livramento, who are hopefully back from injury. We signed the best left-back in the league for nothing. We have two strikers who both scored 20+ goals when they were in the Championship. Yes Adams and Armstrong struggled in the Premier League, but they are now entering their prime years and the Championship is going to seem even slower to them now having been in the Premier League for a number of seasons. Some believe we need a better Goalkeeper to finish top half. I still believe that Bazunu's ability to keep possession will limit the amount of goals we concede (and increase the amount we score), justifying his other weaknesses. Seeing other Championship goalkeepers in preseason, he seems about an average shot-stopper at this level (Swansea's let in a hilariously bad howler vs Oxford Utd - worth a watch). He was exceptional in League One and I think with backing and confidence that he will be good at this level. However, if near the end of the window we need a goalkeeper, we have the funds to get one. "But they're too young?" you cry. Burnley had the 5th youngest team in the league. Currently, we have the 5th youngest team in the league. Ability trumps experience, and by the end of the window we should have a team that is vastly superior in ability to all but a few teams in the league. Underappreciated the quality of our academy players coming through. We must have one of the best groups of U18 and U17 players in the country, with a number likely to breakout this season. Our squad is full of players that other Championship clubs might be able to hold onto for a year or two. I don't think people appreciate the gulf in quality between us with our parachute payments and Premier League players to most of the league. The Prediction Burnley started the season slowly (16th after 5 games) before improving slightly in September, but only finding their truly dominant form in mid-October and never looking back. We will be similar while adjusting to Martin's system. It will be a slow start. We will be low in the table in September with our tough fixtures, but eventually, come October, the vastly superior quality of our team (which it is) will start rolling. We should be pushing to win the league. Anything outside the playoffs will be a sackable offence. I do think that Martin showed enough with a limited squad at Swansea (barely any transfers, tiny squad, players weren't replaced etc) that he is capable. The biggest difficultly with this season is that the quality of all the relegated teams is unprecedented. I'm predicting us to finish 2nd right now, behind Leicester. Partly that is because they are a few moves ahead of us. Leicester and Leeds are both having financial difficulties. If Wilcox and Martin are on the same page, we could very easily finish the window with the best team in the league. I do feel that the quality of the teams that will likely be relegated from the Premier League is going to be poor this season. I am almost certain that if we aren't promoted this season, we will be next. We haven't had our squads pillaged (or become old) like Norwich, Watford etc, we will be fine (and have excellent academy talents coming through). Try and enjoy the season you miserable bunch.

I suspect, given that I read on that forum that she works for the club, that this was done to get lots of #freetella posts to use as part of the announcement video. It's probably been agreed and he just needs to go for his medical etc. A fair bit of effort went into that video and looks like the club knew about it. Her dad wouldn't be sharing it if she had gone rogue.

Hilarious to be lectured on race, by someone from Burnley. I think we are a few steps ahead of you on your journey to enlightenment, but thank you for your concern.

I think Sulemana will end up the better player, but I'd rather keep Tella. His form and experience winning the Champ would be massive for us. Would be gutted if he went.

From what I've seen of Downes, he seems like a slightly worse version of what we have seen of Smallbone this preseason. In terms of experience, he has one extra year of Championship experience. I'd be pushing for Grimes, or a player of similar quality and experience. Smallbone has made Downes redundant in my opinion.

Not really. This is how almost every PL/Champ club does transfers. Wilcox will lead the search with the analysts and scouts then pitch the player to RM. RM will then decide if he is interested. If interested, will have some sort of conversation with the player presenting his vision for the player at the club. After that chat, RM will decide if the player will fit in the dressing room and give Wilcox a final yes/no.

I was content with JWP going and getting £30m+ for him. After seeing how RM used him in the Reading game as a true box-to-box I'm less inclined to let him go. He is one of a few players we have that I trust to score goals when given the opportunity. It appears that RM will be giving him those opportunities in this system. He has averaged 9 goals per year in the PL the last few seasons when playing much deeper in the double pivot. I could see him doubling those goal numbers playing this system in the Championship. I'd be doing whatever we could to keep him. I didn't feel that way a month ago.