Luke SkyWalker-Peters

There was always a randomness with teams Ralph would get wins from, and we are playing a similar style. I could absolutely see this team win away at Arsenal, then lose at home to Bournemouth the next week. 8 points in 6 games under Ruben against 2 teams in the CL mix, 2 midtable and 2 in the relegation scrap. If we keep up this form (1.3 points a game) we will be finishing on 35. Ideally we want to be getting wins against fellow strugglers, but at our current pace we will be right there. For anyone interested, fivethirtyeight.com have us finishing last on 33 points, Bournemouth and Forest both going back to the Championship on 35 and Everton just escaping on 36. They give us a 33% chance at survival.

I literally put the goals per 90 and used the 2 seasons before they played in the PL... because this is likely Tella's season before the PL. They were both the same age or younger than Tella at the time. I don't think there could be a better reference point.

I cannot see any player that signed in January leaving, whether we want them to or not. The good players (like Alcaraz) just signed a contract when we were bottom of the league - they knew what they were getting into. The ones we want to get rid of (like Orsic) have just signed contracts on increased wages that nobody outside the PL would match... and they have so far proven to not be good enough at that level. The could be loaned out though in another Hoedt, Carrillo, Lemina etc situation. I agree with some posters above that SR has cash to spend and that we are way under our FFP limit for years, so there is little incentive for SR to sell players at below market value when they have made it clear they want Saints to be a safe mid-table PL team. Having said all that, my worthless speculation on who will leave: Out of contract: Elyounoussi, Caballero, Walcott 1 year left on contract, will go to a lower-midtable PL level: Che and Salisu. Possibly JWP if he wants to be a starter every week. Players that will go to a higher level: KWP, Lavia, ABK and JWP as mentioned above. Players on loan that could leave: Stephens, Smallbone and Tella. Wallcott and Caballero could stay in player/coach roles. Although not prolific, Adams is a good player that a team will want. S.Armstrong will be 31 next season, has had injury issues and cannot play 90 minutes anymore - no-one will want him. Bednarek just sat on the bench at Villa, so I would be surprised if another PL team wants him, but I do think he would be a good squad player for most sides. I don't think Perraud has looked good enough in the PL to be getting attention to be honest, has a nice cross but I think he has struggled. The players we have loaned out will be interesting. Tella has been excellent in the Championship and scored a lot of goals. Logically the club should try and keep him if we are playing in the Championship. Smallbone and Stephens will both only have 1 year left on their deals. Smallbone would make sense to keep in a midfield that lacks creativity and Stephens' good ability on the ball would be more useful in a league where we would have a lot of it. Obviously this isn't mentioning the players that the club might want to leave. They have been vocal about the squad being too large and we have some good players coming through the academy. Lyanco, Djenepo, Diallo all will only have 1 or 2 years left on their deals. I think all 3 of them could leave for another league in search of regular game time as it looks unlikely that they will get it with us in the Championship. I think our biggest issue won't be getting a good squad (we are battling hard in the Prem with a novice manager - we have a very good squad for Champ level), but will be getting rid of the deadwood.

But what you aren't comprehending is that Adams and Armstrong looked just as good, at the same age, when the difference between the PL and Champ wasn't as vast. Armstrong was basically the same player. 23 years old, one of the fastest players in the Champ, made great runs and created loads of goal scoring opportunities for himself. My point is that in the PL the spaces that Tella is able to exploit won't be there as often. It is just fundamentally much harder to score in the PL with much better organised and athletic defences. Just as Armstrong has struggled in the PL, I don't think it is guaranteed that Tella will do well due to his goals at Burnley.

Well, lets compare Che and A.Armstrong's last seasons in the Championship to Tella's current one. Tella, age 23 at the start of the 22/23 season, is playing for the best team in the league. He has 17 goals and 3 assists - 0.70 goals and 0.12 assists per 90. He is overperforming his XG of 0.41 per 90, which you could either read that he has been lucky in some of his goals, or that he is a good finisher. Che, age 22 at the start of the 18/19 season, was in a poor Birmingham City team that finished 17th in the table. He got 22 goals and 4 assists - 0.53 goals and 0.10 assists per 90. He also overperformed his XG of 0.39 per 90 and underperformed his XA of 0.15 per 90, which suggests he was playing alongside poor finishers. Armstrong, age 23 at the start of the 20/21 season, was in a poor Blackburn Rovers team that finished 15th in the table. He got 28 goals and 5 assists - 0.73 goals and 0.13 assists per 90. He essentially met his XG of 0.76 and XA of 0.12 per 90. So, Tella is having similar seasons to Che and Armstrong before they finished in the Championship, at the same age, but in a much better team. What this shows is that the difference in level between the Championship and Premier League is huge. Adams and Armstrong have both improved since they made the step up, but both still struggle to score goals in the Premier League. Adams, especially, is a much better player now but still isn't prolific like he was in the Champ. I'm not trying to put down Tella, who I think is a good player and that we should keep him in the summer, but just as A.Armstrong scored lots of goals in the Champ and very few in the PL its not a massive surprise that although Tella scored only 1 goal in the PL that he is scoring lots in the Champ. My point is, that I could understand why a manager might think that some of our attacking players will be just as good, if not better. The fact is that our coaches haven't all been rubbish for the last few years, or the players don't care etc. It's just now very hard to score goals in the PL and very few players successfully make that jump - whether from the Champ or a different league. Also, Tella will be 24 in the summer and at about his peak. I could see a coach choosing to back Sulamana and Edozie instead, who are both 4 and 5 years younger. I'm just saying there are legitimate reasons that a manager might prefer some of our current players.

I'm sure most of our players won't want to play in the Championship, but they have signed their contracts so its tough luck. It's not like its a big 6 club that's going to want to sign him. Tella won't have had anything to do with whether he came back in January. Burnley could have said no, as is their right when paying to loan a player, but it was all hands to the pump in January, so I can't see Saints not bringing him back because he didn't want to. Same reason we got Bednarek and not Stephens - Villa didn't want Bednarek whereas Bournemouth wanted Stephens. Yes, exactly, Burnley aren't going to pay the kind of money that will make it worthwhile for us to sell him. I just cannot see SR doing it when there will be a handful of players that we will have to sell before their contracts run out - like Salisu and Adams - and others that will be sold to "big 6" teams - like KWP, Lavia, ABK and possibly JWP. Financially there will be no need for SR to sell Tella, especially as we are going to get 3 years of parachute payments. We are way under our FFP limits for spending for the next few years, so it all boils down to how much money SR are willing to spend short term to get us back up. Given everything they have said about the multi-club model relying on us being in the premier league to then sell our players to elite clubs, I think that they would rather keep a slightly disgruntled Tella for a year in the championship and get promoted than sell him. People here haven't clocked onto how much the PL finances have changed football over the last 5 years. If Norwich, Fulham and Watford can hold onto proven PL goal scorers like Pukki, Mitrovich and Sarr when they go into the Championship, then I'm certain that we can hold onto Tella after one good season in the Championship. The only reason I can see Tella not being here next year is if SR and the Saints scouts don't think he will be getting a starting role. If they think 2 of the Armstrong twins, Djenepo, Edozie, Sulemana and Orsic are better than Tella, then he won't be here next year.

Seems like you've just made up Brighton, Fulham and Brentford being deemed winnable. Losing to those teams wasn't why Jones had to go, although the ease by which Brighton and Brentford carved through us certainly didn't help. If he had beaten the worst away team in the league, while they were playing away, and a relegation candidate with 10 men (also at home) then perhaps people would look at Jones as a poor manager instead of the completely inept clusterfuck that his time will be remembered for. To answer your question, only Bournemouth, Palace, West Ham and Forest are games that we should be disappointed if we lose. Luckily Selles has proven capable of grinding out results against better teams. What you are omitting is that Villa and Wolves at home were very winnable games for Jones and he massively fucked them both.

While a few teams around us got some points, there are a number just ahead that are continuing to sink down the table. Palace and below are all in the relegation fight with a 6 points difference. Leicester are in a freefall, as are Forest. Palace haven't won a game in 2023. Bournemouth look really poor and their win today seems more of an anomoly. These next 3 games are our toughest stretch for the rest of the season, so I'm not going to put too much value into it. Historically 10 wins is usually enough, but we haven't had many draws, so lets say 5 more wins should do it - which gets us to the magic 36 points. If we could get a win or 2 draws in these next 3 games then I'll be pretty confident of our chances of getting that. We have tough games, but are finding a bit of form and Selles seems to have settled on a shape and a group of players he likes. I don't think we are the certain drop that I did at the end of the Jones tenure.

I don't know why people seem to think the club will sell Tella. Him massively improving in the Championship is exactly why we sent him on loan. If we go down then having a cheap player with two years left on his contract and is a proven goal scorer at that level is a no-brainer. He has two years left on his contract and with Walcott and Elyounoussi's contracts expiring, plus the potential selling of underperforming players like Djenepo and Orsic, I cannot understand people's thinking here. Times have changed and we don't need the money from selling players like Tella for £10m - look how Fulham held onto Mitrovic, Watford held onto Sarr, Norwich onto Pukki etc. We have more money than all of those clubs. The only players the club will probably sell are ones who's contract only has a year left and are Prem standard (Salisu, Stu Armstrong, Che) or those that will get offers from big 6(7?) teams (JWP, KWP, ABK, Lavia). Unless teams fuck up their finances (which we haven't, we have been incredibly frugal for years) then there isn't the need to sell like 10 years ago. The PL money is so big, as are the parachute payments, that the club could hold onto every player, sign a few more, and still be OK under FFP. How many players are sold depends on how much of a financial hit SR want to take next year in the hopes of us bouncing straight back up and how much of a factor moral of the dressing room will be (e.g. Lavia wouldn't enjoy being in the Champ when he has played like one of the best CMs in the PL this season). Again, this is due to us basically spending nothing under Gao. Secondly, I have no idea why people think he would have saved our season. Our team is filled with attacking players that dominated the Championship and they can't score goals in the Premier League. I don't think Tella after a few months in the Championship would be any different. For his development, it was absolutely the right decision to keep him at Burnley getting regular minutes. Orsic being a bad buy doesn't mean bringing back Tella would have been a good idea. Would he be playing ahead of Sulemana? I doubt it.

On potato quality, I just think that is due to them zooming in on the player when editing, they are usually filming a wide shot, plus the compression when uploading to Youtube. On Alejandro, I've done a bit of digging and it seems that at some point in the last few years his family has moved to the UK from Venezuala. Often players that were in academies will have to start from the bottom again to get noticed - for instance, Fabio Carvalho, who was at the Benfica academy, after moving from Portugal played for Balham for a while before getting noticed by Fulham. So, he might have been in a decent academy, its hard to tell. Perhaps lost in the shuffle, perhaps more focused on athletics or perhaps just a late bloomer. Interestingly, he isn't the only striker around that age that we have signed from Sunday league. We have also signed Jack Topley from Hedge End United Youth U14's in Southampton. It looks like we signed him in November 2021 - but hard to guess his age as it is likely he was playing in a higher age group if we were interested. Based on the highlight clips, Jack also looks tall for his age (although currently very lanky), but also seemingly has exceptional pace. This was his last game for them: https://fulltime.thefa.com/displayFixture.html?id=21874215 So, what is interesting to me is that we have a pattern of acquiring Sunday League players at around 13/14 who are physically superior to their peers. I'm assuming with the hopes that they will keep that physical advantage whilst developing the technical and mental side of their game with us. In my opinion it seems like a great idea. A true no.9 is such a rare commodity and while we look to currently be one of the best in the country at developing attacking players from the academy, with Ballard, Doyle, Morgan (even though he's left), Dibling, Robinson and now Gomes all playing games for England from each of the age groups from U18s to the U15s. But, with the exception of Gomes, they all lack elite size or pace and we have seen, quite frankly, with Lukaku that being a freakish athlete can make up for significant technical deficiencies. It looks like our solution to eternally searching for a striker is to mould them ourselves. Again, I think its great, every manager wants a big, powerful no.9 (even Pep), but there are seemingly none in existence at the required level. I would hope that we also apply this to CB. If we are sticking with our high line, high press style - then we need fast CBs. Obviously that is why we signed Salisu, Lyanco and ABK (as they all have pace for a CB), but to play the same style in the academy we need the same type of players.

Obviously highlights of a 14 year old are useless in predicting ability in the men's game, but if anyone is interested in what the hype is about right now:

When we sacked Ralph, we weren't in that bad of a position and a half decent manager would have kept us up, but it is looking more like we are going to be in the Chamionship next season. With that in mind, I'd like us to try and build upon Ralph's work in the Champ with a similar manager. I honestly think the club should seriously consider Danny Rohl. Obviously a risk getting someone who hasn't managed before, but there are plenty of recent success stories - Arteta being the biggest one. He knows the club, knows Ralph's style of play and helped keep us up before. But, importantly, he had massive success at Bayern Munich helping Flick win the CL, so is used to working with a style of play that can dominate a league (which would be necessary in the Championship). Like Kompany at Burnley, he would have the players to dominate in the Championship playing a style he knows well. He will then use his experience from coaching with us and Leipzig to get us to play aggressive football with our young players, which gets us results punching above our weight.

So, when clubs are in PL2 Division 1 I believe all the games have to be livestreamed in some capacity. We used to do ours on youtube and the B team has played away games where the opposition have done that this season (Everton in the PL Cup springs to mind). Some teams will stream U18s games as well, I'll occasionally do a search on youtube and see if any youth team opponents streamed the games. Other games are scattered around. For instance, I paid £2 for a month of Villa TV to watch the FA Youth Cup match. England youth games are sometimes livestreamed depending on the tournaments. Obviously you can watch all the highlights on the Saints website. I'd like to go to a B team game at Totton, out of curiosity to see how they compare to other levels, but I am not local enough to justify doing that. Oddly, instagram is quite useful for seeing what some of these players are about. They mostly seem to be managed by some sort of agent and all have a personal highlight reel for each season and internationals. So you can see their "best bits" that might not be available anywhere else (e.g. an England friendly) - not the best way to judge players, admittedly, but you get a sense of what they are about.

Yes, Kami looks very good. I know it became a large wall of text, but I did mention him in the penultimate paragraph. My only concern for Doyle is the position he will play in men's football. He seems incredibly suited as one of Ralph's 10s as he isn't the fastest or the biggest. Physically and with his two-footedness, in my opinion, he is comparable to Elyounoussi stylistically. I know that isn't a comparison that would get many on here excited, but I'm sure the club would be delighted if some of these youth players turned into useful first team players after so long without any (the belated effects of relegation I assume).

Better than Ballard, more consistent than Dibling but with a lower ceiling. In more detail: Ballard is obviously a year older, but JJM is bigger, faster, has better ability in build-up play (dribbling, movement passing etc) and better finishing. JJM is one of the best players in his age group in the country. He is incredibly consistent as a goalscorer and has played as a CF in a strike partnership for our academy, but also successfully as a lone striker for England. Ballard is a very good youth player, but doesn't have the physical attributes to create something with his speed or power, so he is at a disadvantage. Morgan has a bit more speed and the frame to bulk up a bit. So, I think (and I'm no authority) Ballard would likely become a starter in the Championship or League One (so a good squad player for us). JJM is a level above, but he isn't on the generational talent level that is usually required to be a starter at a club like Chelsea - but I could have seen him starting for a PL side like Southampton. Dibling, unlike Ballard and JJM who play as strikers, is a left-footed RW. He, frankly, does stuff that you rarely see youth players do. He has a bit of Bale about him when you see him strike the ball with his left - it can be an absolute rocket. He's big for a winger (must be 6ft+), has excellent ability with the ball. He looks like he could be playing for a CL club in the future. However, he clearly hasn't been consistent enough as he is still with the U18s this season. But, when he is playing well, like he did against Aston Villa U18s in the FA Youth Cup, he looks like a generational talent - with the Villa commentator that day comparing him to Grealish after 20 minutes (he went on to score two goals after that). I saw an England U16 game where he was pretty invisible, but if he can get consistency to his game then he will be the best of the lot. So, with Dibling, its hard to tell - the potential is higher than Morgan, but he doesn't have the consistency. Should mention that I think Kami Doyle, same year as Ballard, in the B team looks very good. He is a genuinly two-footed player that takes corners and free-kicks with both feet. I'm not sure what position is best for him as he doesn't have electric pace you would like from an attacker or the physicality you'd like from a CM. I guess CM, but will require some development. Meghoma and Boot are two other players in the U18s worth keeping an eye on. Same age group as Morgan and Dibling, they were pinched from Spurs and Bournemouth respectfully. Meghoma looks far better defensively (whilst being very good going forward) than Thierry Small at LB, who is a couple of years older than him, and Boot looks like a class CB - but that is a difficult position to evaluate at youth level.

More so his age and performances. By all accounts he was one of the best, if not the best, GKs in League One last season. He was in the PFA League One team of the year. He has also been very good for Ireland. The jump in shooting quality from League One to Premier League is obviously large. Personally, I think the rest of his game has been good (distribution, cross collection etc). He just doesn't look accustomed to this quality yet and his positioning and footwork have been poor at times. He also doesn't have the anticipation yet and sometimes goes to ground when he shouldn't. I have been an advocate for him to be benched since October, but it really isn't his fault. He should have been eased into the first XI better, behind an experienced keeper. We shouldn't be relying on a 20 year old keeper to save us from relegation - that's not fair to him. I assume that McCarthy's injury has scuppered the club's plans as he surely would have taken over if available.

We should dominate the ball, so play the 4222 the club is used to. I think that this is our absolute lowest priority right now and should be used for some debuts and needed minutes for some players. Shame Bednarek is Cup tied and ABK is still out. Bazunu Bree Lyanco Salisu Perraud JWP Diallo Doyle Orsic Adams Morgan Edit: Bree for AMN

My point was that he will be more likely to get a serious injury playing for the 1st team as he isn't physically ready. I shouldn't have said "ruins career" as well, the surgeries are so good these days that it is just missed time on the grass - and to this point I doubt players are moving to Chelsea etc for money, they know they will make far more if they can be regular PL starters and Chelsea have an excellent track record for that. I didn't say he would play zero football for the next year or two, as I doubt that is the plan. I said, and I meant the rest of the season, he would likely play cup games against lower league opposition, with possible late sub appearances. That is more than he will get anywhere else. Next season I could see us easing him in to the squad and could be a rotational 1st team player in 12 months time - like Ferguson at Brighton (although he is way off the physical development of Ferguson). So, during the hectic Christmas schedule next season I could see him starting games at 17 years old and playing 60 or so minutes. I doubt Chelsea would be offering far more than us. We must be offering decent money now as we have been pinching England youth players from Spurs and Bournemouth. It used to just be the likes of Yeovil. I assume that any move made is due to the player, family and agent believing it will be best for their development and future prospects. I doubt the strategy has changed. He is undeniably one of England's best players in his age group (born in 06), along with Dibling. They are two standout players for England and are as prospects probably the two most exciting players in our academy. We will get to see at the U17 Euros this Summer, but it is possible that they are some of the best players in their age group in the world. Southampton must rate him, him and Dibling are the two best talents we have had in a very long time. It is a shame Ralph has gone as he is suited to being a striker partner rather than a lone 9. Would other clubs rate him? I'm sure they would, but they will also have excellent similar talents on their books. Perhaps some a year or two older or younger, but I'm sure that he would not walk into their U21 teams like he does with us. Our model must allow us to compete with the big sides otherwise we wouldn't have been able to sign Livramento, Lavia, Larios, Edozie, ABK, Mara etc. We evidently offer decent wages, but crucially the opportunity to play. Morgan might be frustrated he isn't playing now, but he should be happy that there is only Mara and Adams ahead of him as pure strikers. It is a fantastic opportunity for any young player and should result in him getting far more minutes than anywhere else. But to answer your question, yes, evidently we offer a competitive contract.

He's not a year younger than Edozie, he is 3 years younger. 3 years younger than Tino. 2 years younger than Larios and Lavia. Notably he is 3 and a half years younger than Mara, who hasn't set the world on fire, and has so much more size and strength than (just turned 17) Morgan has now or likely will ever have. I've watched his games for Saints U18s, the B team, England U16 and U17s and he is clearly very good for his age group. However, Mara played 1 game in the B team and scored 4 goals looking like he was playing against my 5 a side team - and we have seen how much he has struggled for most of this season. Morgan has played well for the B team, but he hasn't truly dominated. He is clearly an intelligent and technically gifted player, but so far off PL football physically. He is developing well, there is no need to throw him out there against a PL side and do him harm. His performances, like Ballard and Doyle, have earned him opportunities in cup games against lower league opposition. Perhaps he can have a run around with 5 minutes to go in a few games, but if he seriously thinks that he is ready to contribute meaningfully then he is a bit deluded. Only one player younger than him has got on the pitch for a PL game and that is Ethan Nwaneri - who got 1 minute. Only one other player in Morgan's school year has got on the pitch and that's Ben Doak - and he has just made 2 sub appearances in the PL and 2 in the FA Cup - all 10 minutes. The reality is he can move to a Man City or Arsenal and be more likely to get to start a match against some Lithuanian side, or he could stay here where he is much more likely to be a full-time starter in 2 years time. I just don't know what this kid wants, if he goes out there, tears his ACL and ruins his career, then it would be hard to feel sorry for him when there is such a clear minimum age that every PL team abides by for good reason.