hypochondriac

Yep. It will be every economic sanction we can muster, robust defence and cross our fingers that the Russian people get pissed off enough to depose him. We won't risk war imo. We don't have the appetite for it.

I just think that the vast majority of people have been so comfortable and contented for the vast majority or all of their lives (relatively). For a lot of people their existence doesn't extend much beyond who got kicked out of the x factor this week or who Jordan is dating this month. Many of the British public have very little interest in politics, probably don't even know what NATO is and they certainly don't want to risk their entire way of life being removed to go and defend a country they know barely anything about. Lots of people actually really dislike this country and what it stands for. A small of that is actually justified given how we ceded the moral high ground with things like Iraq. There's been a number of books in recent years about how the West has lost confidence in itself and its ideology and thus I'm not sure that there's a majority who believe that the values that our country stands for is worth fighting for. The tiktok generation and social media idiots will not be baying to go and fight some Russians in Lithuania were Russia to start attacking us I am certain and those people comprise a depressingly large number of the population I am afraid.

Why do you keep asking what I would do? I've already said I'd support meeting Russia with military force should they invade a NATO country. I'm talking about what I think countries will actually do and what course the public in western nations will support.

Yep this basically. How exactly do you think people would react if Russia started bombing parts of the UK or similar? We haven't seen anything close to that in any of our lifetimes bar a very tiny few.

No I don't and I haven't suggested that. It is my belief that most of the public in their cosseted worlds do not want to deal with the consequences of war should someone like Lithuania be invaded. I coukd be wrong of course but I really don't think I will be given what I know about the average member of the general public in the west.

No it isn't its entirely accurate. Almost everyone would support the principle of being more environmentally friendly but its a different story if they're told they have to restrict flights, drastically reduce meat consumption and stop buying consumable goods to a great extent. In the same way, everyone agrees with the principles of NATO but its a bit different once they have to deal with realities of war and cyber attacks on infrastructure for a few months or years. Let's see how long the noble principles last in the minds of more millenials when faced with that reality (particularly since so many profess to despise many of the supposed values of this country) . My guess is not long at all. I'd support war against Russia in this circumstance by the way, I just don't think that will be sentiment of the majority.

To avoid war then probably. That's the choice that everyone will have to make and I don't think the West has the stomach for a full blown war. Probably better as well for Ukraine to allow Russia to invade with little to no bloodshed given that they will probably succeed either way. Both options terrible though admittedly.

Exactly. If Russia shell any part of this country then there would be mass panic and the question will be raised about why we are risking death and destruction over something so small (like an invasion of Lithuania.)

I don't think it will play out as you suggest it will. Like I said, it will be incremental movements over a period of time rather than a rushed invasion across multiple countries. Given that, no one in the west will want to risk ww3 by having actual troops on the ground fighting Russia. Once the consequences are known such as Internet being down, energy prices through the roof, food prices skyrocketing, mobile phone infrastructure being attacked etc along with many dead Britons, the narrative will be "we are going through all of this for the sake of some tiny Eastern European nation that used to be part of Russia anyway. Its not so different from Ukraine, why are we going through all this pain when we can just negotiate with Putin and sort it out more peacefully." Its not about what I want, but I bet that narrative will be more prominent than the alternative. People have principles but they don't want to pay the nevessary price for them. It's why green policies have such popularity up until the point that it's explained what is required to have them.

Well if it happens it will lend your argument more credibility once you've travelled out there.

Oh sure. The public will be baying for Russian blood when the missiles start blowing up British troops in Lithuania. Would you be prepared to go to the front line to defend NATO interests?

The difference is Putin can just disregard them or threaten them with prison.

The fact it hasn't been is telling in itself.

And the vast majority of the public have zero interest in some small Eastern European backwater. They just want to be left alone to eat McDonalds and browse amazon.

They've had quite a while to discuss it all but still can't come to agreement. Not a good sign.

The point is it doesn't seem like we do have a united response over Ukraine which isn't going to make Putin calculate anything other than once again displaying the West's lack of unity and division.

Given what I've posted below, doesn't seem like a good start for unity does it.

What we should do and what we will do are two different things which is my point. I'll believe it when I see it.

You've said yourself you don't think that Russia will stop at Ukraine.

How likely is that? If he ends up dying he will just be replaced by a kgb crony equally ruthless and hard nosed to keep his place at the top.

It's not just America though. Putin doesn't have the problem of having to sell to a domestic audience the loss of pote tially thousands of people over a country that most people don't care about. The west does have that problem and I can envisage significant opposition and calls for compromise to prevent war on that scale. Besides, it's most likely going to be an incremental thing anyway like I said earlier. Russia will just wait for things to die down and a bit and then keep going.

I don't think it's a small thing. I still don't think it's a reasoning that the American public will accept. I don't even think it's one we will accept here, particularly if we get mass cyber attacks or similar that shut off communications.

Not really the same thing is it. The American public won't stand for body bags coming back to America from an Eastern European country and whoever is in charge won't have the backbone to allow it. Why would they?

I am aware thanks.

So here we are then. If true then we can't even muster proper sanctions against Russia let alone start a ground war against them. The optimism from some that we are going to defend some of this Eastern European nations is misplaced in my opinion.