Jimmy_D

Looks like there’s an awareness that these mobilised troops are going to be sent underprepared and under-equipped, but if they couldn’t do better for their initial invasion forces after preparing for eight years in peacetime conditions, it seems unlikely that they’ll do better during a war under the heaviest sanctions ever imposed on a country in a matter of weeks.

Some unconfirmed reports that some of those arrested have been taken to be conscripted. Meanwhile

Oh wow. I don’t know how that exchange was negotiated, but that feels like a huge diplomatic win for Ukraine. Some Russian reaction in this tweet and the thread that follows it.

I thought that name sounded familiar. He’s one of voices that was coming out in support of the January 6 Trump supporters that stormed the Capitol. He’s also been going on about China for years. China is a concern, but it’s one that certainly isn’t being ignored. The argument that they should be a priority and focus should be shifted away from Russia, while Russia are literally in the process of attempting genocide and threatening nuclear war, is utterly ridiculous.

So, in your scenario, Russia kicks off, and Europe, having been honing warcraft for millennia, are suddenly helpless against them. The USA, having put billions in to stop Russia’s current level of escalation, suddenly go, “nah, we’ve done enough, they’re on their own now.” They break the biggest military treaty they’re in, to abandon people and values they like, and let people they don’t like and values they don’t like prevail. They don’t see any threat to themselves from Russia kicking off either, apparently. All this with the background of this being just about the only issue that’s currently enjoying strong bipartisan support in the USA.

A nuclear deterrent requires constant maintenance. In particular it requires tritium to be replaced every 12 years or so. It’s difficult to produce and Russia hasn’t produced enough to service more than about 200 nukes in that time. On top of that, while western nukes are built with the capability to replace tritium when required, Russian nukes are sealed units where that’s not possible without cracking them open destructively. Russia has a good enough nuclear deterrent to make any attack on Russia itself infeasible to the point of being impossible, but they don’t have the stockpiles of thousands they claim they do, certainly not that many maintained. It’s nowhere near enough to ‘win’ a nuclear war they started, or to stop the NATO response that would follow. While Putin has been blaming NATO aggression and the risk of NATO being close to them on their land grab, the fact they’ve been draining air defence from St Petersburg shows that they’re not actually worried about NATO aggression. For a few months now they’ve actually been compromising the defence of Russia itself to fuel this war. Defence that they would need if they were to use nukes, something that would cause NATO countries to be able to justify attacking Russia itself as defensive. On top of that, Putin’s invasion has already cost Russia all the soft power they had from the perception that their conventional military is strong enough to rival any peer. It’s uncovered a culture of corruption, with corners cut at any turn. Their remaining soft power comes from being nuclear armed, so naturally they’re shouting about it loudly. Does Putin want to risk uncovering similar problems and leaving Russia with no military soft power at all? Bearing in mind that the temptation to cut corners on a nuclear arsenal, literally designed to never actually be used, is magnified to a massive extent, how confident would Putin, and the other military leaders that have to go through with it, be that similar problems seen everywhere else in their military aren’t present in their nuclear arsenal? On top of that there are other lines that Russia would cross first that they haven’t crossed. Options that wouldn’t risk Russia being turned into a crater such as chemical or biological weapons. Shouting about the very top of their escalation ladder points more at trying to scare the West in a desperate attempt to cut off the supply of arms they have no answer to more than anything else. Putin might act as if he’ll be in power forever, but reality is that he won’t be, and there will be a point where Putin being in power becomes a bigger problem than Putin not being in power to enough people with the ability to change that.

Aiming for calling up 300k reserves then. Also all current military contacts have been extended indefinitely. Even if they could get anywhere near that number, it’s unlikely to change much. Force multipliers in modern warfare are just too effective, it’s just sending a load of Russians underprepared and underequipped who will be starting with rock bottom morale into an army that’s already breaking. As for the nuclear risk, it would be like someone getting into a punch up in a bar and responding to it going badly by dropping a dozen grenades, after a whole slew of people have agreed to hand them grenades. Even that vastly underplays how much of an escalation it would be. It is vanishingly unlikely it could possibly get anywhere near going that far.

They also need better logistics than they currently have just to supply that equipment (and supplies) just to the troops they currently have. Mobilised troops would only put more strain on that.

Seems there’s starting to be a shift in tone from Putin‘s mouthpieces. Meanwhile the security situation in Russian occupied areas is obviously much better now, as they’ve decided that the referenda to join Russia are back on. None of which Russia currently completely control. Maybe they can get the Ukrainian army to take care of part of it so everyone can vote. Seems the real reason is that it’d mean “Russian territory” was occupied, giving Russia an excuse for full mobilisation, and also making it legal to send conscripts in under Russian law. Between fears in Russia over mobilisation, and the measures propping up the Russian economy against sanctions starting to crumble, the stock market has reacted badly there. It’s certainly a risky strategy. Full mobilisation wouldn’t help much. Russia’s command structure has been severely hit in Ukraine, and with it their ability to effectively train new troops, and on top of that it’d be unbelievably unpopular, with the vast majority of recruits being unwilling conscripts that’d be even less effective. On top of that, by “annexing” currently occupied territory, Putin risks making himself appear increasingly weak, as it’d effectively mean “Russia” itself was occupied, and there would be nothing Russia could do to get it “back.” On top of that, it also removes any sense that Ukraine moving to liberate Crimea would be escalation, since Ukraine would already be on Russian claimed territory.

Lost with a poor performance against a bunch of utterly detestable cheats, but only because of an offside goal.

Did Hasenhuttl piss in Carragher’s cornflakes or something?

Swear these Villa cheats must moonlight at the bowling alley. As pins.

VAR useless yet again.

They’re the literal definition of stupid evil. Targeting civilians has galvanised resistance against them, both within Ukraine and internationally. Europe have gone cold turkey on Russia’s biggest export, and Russia won’t be getting those sales back. Sweden, Finland, and to a certain extent, even Switzerland have abandoned neutral stances. It’s alienated their allies, to the point that even China have been carefully navigating to avoid overtly supporting the invasion. Even militarily, they’ve been using weapons they have limited stocks of, which they can’t produce at the moment, on targets that do nothing to weaken Ukraine’s military. Russia turned up at the start of the war with 45000 body bags and mobile crematoriums. They didn’t have those because they thought the war would take months and they would need them for Russian troops. It’s no wonder that peace talks never had any chance of succeeding, or that Ukraine’s troops have been so motivated. They’re paying a terrible price to stop Russia, but they’re making that sacrifice to stop the genocide of their people.

Safe to say Izyum can be listed as liberated. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62899474 Ukraine really did strike gold when they elected Zelensky, underestimating him will probably turn out to be the biggest mistake Putin ever made.

Ah, sorry, I was specifically referring to public dissent against Putin from other politicians in office. You’re right of course that there’s been protests by the public, even since they’ve been cracking down on it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-council-faces-dissolution-after-call-putins-removal-2022-09-13/ Further indications of dissent spreading. Still within Putin’s ability to control, for now at least, but considering that any public dissent would have been unthinkable before the invasion…

One possible explanation for (some of) the unexplained deaths could be suicide. From what I’ve read, care for mental health issues in Russia is extremely limited. That said, I’d be extremely surprised if it was the explanation for all of them.

The bad guy in American films.

We may be closer to the end than we realise at the moment. Between struggling to find volunteers motivated even from the most desperate sources, and Russian logistics being unable to deal with their current level of troops, it’s unlikely even full mobilisation would make any difference at this point. Withdrawing would be humiliating for Russia, and Putin, especially if they need to give up Crimea for Ukraine to accept it, but it’s the least worst option they have. Unfortunately I don’t see them seeing it that way, they’d rather be able to blame troops running away as rock-bottom morale is likely to see events like Kharkiv repeated.

Reports that Russian troops in Kherson are in the process of surrendering. Hope that goes as smoothly as it can. This past week has been incredible.

Appears to be genuine, based on comments that it’s on their social media. If it is, it appears that political dissent against Putin might be starting to be voiced more.

It’s dehumanising Ukrainians. Repeat it often enough and any and all measures taken against them, including war crimes, will be seen not only as acceptable, but justified, in Russia at least. The Internet and access to non-Russian news sources dilutes that somewhat, among some Russians at least, but it’s still depressingly effective. On lighter note, Ukrainian troops finally ran into some stiffer resistance in Kharkiv.

The tone definitely seems to be changing on Russian state TV.