Looks a fair day's racing and I few I like this afternoon:
Brig 14:10 Joss Stick 3 point win win, 2 point place/ Best One 2 point win 1 point place- I think both these horses look good value so playing on both though at 40/1 on BF at present Joss Stick does look very good value, only 16/1 with Stan James and William Hill
Bev 15:00 Handsome Falcon/Avonrose: Again 2 I really like in this race with preference for Handsome Falcon. The Richard Fahey-trained pick sees out this trip really well, goes on the ground and has two course wins to his name, so he has plenty going for him. He races from the same mark as when a close fourth here last time and he looks just about good enough from a high draw to enjoy his first win of the season. Avonrose trained by Mark Johnston runs off a very low mark so can't dismiss though is rather inclined to be lazy so hopefullyRoyston Ffrench can cajole him into getting involved when it matters.
Bev 15:30 My Arch : Tillietudlem is likely to be all the rage having won five of his last six starts but this is a stronger race than he has been competing in and he turns out for the fifth time in four weeks. At over double his price, topweight My Arch is preferred. He was off the track for 18 months prior to reappearing in October but has returned in very good heart. Having won on his first attempt over fences in his second run back he has done little wrong in three races on the flat since. He won from a mark of 77 in this grade over 14 furlongs at Musselburgh and followed that with two seconds over two miles in better races from marks of 80 and 81. His head defeat by Dayia at haydock last time out looks very good form in the context of this race. He has a career high mark of 85 to contend with but he is unexposed over this sort of trip and there may be more to come. His only previous visit to this track saw him win over ten furlongs back in 2006, He acts on any ground and four of his five victories have come on right-handed tracks. The yard have a 31% strike rate at this track yieldinga l.s.p of £52.
Bev 16:00 Piddies Power : Been well supported this morning and that may well tell it's own story now he runs in handicap company.
Bev 16:30 Kyzer Chief 2 point win, 1 point place : The Name is Frank seems to have got the message and has decided not to run, last seen trudging slowly west along the M3 ! Kyzer Chief has been disappointing in his last three outings but as a result the five pound drop in the weights sees him six pounds below the mark from which he went close on his only previous run over this C/D. He is not badly drawn in stall ten and he has the tactical speed to get a good early pitch. The booking Of Silvestre De Sousa looks a positive move and, although the selection has a poor win record, he could run into a place at least under his optimum conditions. @ around 12/1.
Bev 17:30 Tropical Duke 2 point win, 1 point place : Well I must be mad too since not only am I getting involved here I'm replicating Frankie's selection ! Tropical Duke has run poorly in both his races this season but it's possible they were both needed. He may have been aimed at this race because his two best performances have come under today's jockey, the only times she has been on board. He ran out an easy winner over this C/D from just a two pound lower mark last September and followed that with a decent third from a five pound higher mark at Redcar. If he returns to that kind of form he would have a serious chance against horses who mainly find it easier to place than win on turf.
Good luck, am keeping a check on Harcas who runs in the 8.50 at Musselburgh, has attracted some support but nothing as yet to suggest he will improve on his disappointing run last time out.
Chris
