Chez

Leeds goal difference is 6 more than Ipswich at the moment.

Did Downes look rusty on Saturday? Getting and keeping him right is extremely important. not sure if that means he gets some time on the pitch or not.

I guess its good to reward ST holders for their loyalty, but they already get cheaper match day tickets and are first in the queue for these play off tickets and away tickets etc, so I am not sure why the Southampton football business is giving them the chance to get two tickets for mates at the possible expense of fans that have bought tickets this season. I don't think ST holder expect this or will take into account when making a decision on purchasing a future ST.

Not sure I understand why season ticket holder's (two) mates get priority over other supporters that have paid to go to games but don't want to feel mugged off by buying a `membership'.

where has this £70k wage for Aribo come from? I often say players are on far more than we imagine, but in his case, we signed him for buttons from Rangers, who pay fuck all. I cant see why we'd have to pay him that much and not have a cut in his contract should we go down. Doesn't stack up. That said, even with wage cuts, players are on far more than the championship can cover.

We do have the second parachute payment, but I agree, we will need to raise some funds, assuming we don't win the play off (I'm still very hopeful). My fag packet maths has us needing to make a significant profit in the next set of accounts to avoid breaching FFP rules. I would say that if players are currently on lots of money, they will be hard to shift. McCarthy has been a prime example, so too Bednarek. No Prem side was interested in buying Bednarek when we were touting him to all and sundry two summers ago, and likewise last summer. What has changed? AArmstrong has once more proved he can score goals in the Championship, but other than perhaps a promoted Ipswich, which Prem side is coming in for him? Aribo has done quite well in the second half of the season, but not enough for a Prem side to buy him. KWP is only here this season because he was shite the season before and we will have wanted a bloody serious fee for him. That fee will be lower this summer as he edges towards a free, so his departure is more likely, but not certain. We will certainly need to do some trading if we are to acquire Downes (which I think could happen) and maybe a couple of others that can give us what has been missing this season.

the Anfield League cup game (and one or two others) push it close, but me too. Unbelievable tension, atmosphere and overall experience. The wild celebrations after the Vifara and Rasiak goals would probably kill me now.

more `big chances' than any other striker in fact. I'd argue that when he was played out wide last season (with less pressure to score goals), he was more of a handful - the newcastle cup game at home a prime example (why the fuck he was subbed that night is beyond me) and a better fit to his skills/attributes. He now plays out there all the time, so he may be more effective if we go up, although he's never going to score as many goals as he has this season, obviously.

we could then have four in midfield too, which would protect the fullbacks. Would we still be able to get players into space, play out from the back and dominate possession? I wouldn't have thought it impossible, but maybe it leaves us short in the middle, which at the top level is suicide.

Do we really have quality defenders? No one rates the keeper and the midfield in front of them is pretty poor defensively. Individually, Manning is pretty average as a defender. I honestly don't know if the centre backs are all that. They have struggled in the top flight, but on relegation they suddenly become the `best defenders in the championship'? THB is a little overrated in my opinion. Decent footballer, no doubt about it, but he's not quick and not the best in the air. And then there is KWP, who is obviously a fantastic footballer, but is he actually a great defender? He's been fucking terrible the last few weeks. I doubt i am going to convince anyone on here that our ills are not down to RM, but I think it should be acknowledged that player limitations do factor in. That said, players that defend well and are not great on the ball are unlikely to be high on his wish list this summer. So even with time to shuffle his pack, I'd be surprised if we got tighter next season.

I think that was the first time I have ever referenced the stats provided about Championship games, so not sure I'm terribly `fascinated' by them - I'm not sure the xG illuminates anything to me, but maybe i don't understand it correctly. On this occasion I just wanted to see if we genuinely created a lot of proper chances (if we do then RM must be doing something right) and equally if we allowed too many proper chances or we have just been done by quite a few sucker punches. I've watched every game, so I probably know the answer, but over a whole season you memory can play tricks on you.

number of `big chances' our defence have allowed would seem to be a good stat to have.

Saints were top in terms of xG expected goals scored (1.86 goals per game) but as you say, 3rd in terms of goals scored (1.89 goals per game). Not sure how we have scored more than expected, unless opposing keepers have been shit against us, but I'm sure someone will enlighten me. What is telling is that we have the second most `big chances (70) missed, highest was Leicester 78. AArmstrong has missed 28 `big chances'. Next highest was Rutter with 17. We have had the most shots per match, most corners too. Whatever the gripes about RM, the style of football is creating opportunities, if perhaps they are not being taken. In defence, our xGA (expected goals conceded) is 1.14, equal third lowest (best), but actual number of goals conceded per game was 1.38, which as you say is 14th (same in terms of rankings for clean sheets). Is that disparity simply down to the keeper not saving things he should? I wonder how many big chances we allow (can't find that stat). We have made the 3rd least number of tackles, 3rd least number of saves, 2nd least number of interceptions...I am not sure they are all that telling (all the good sides are similar) because we have the ball a lot, but it's obvious that we don't have a clue how to keep it tight and shut up shop.

Hope Mara has a good game. Great to see Downes on the bench. Good sign that he will be fit for the play offs. What am I saying? Two 5-0 wins and we could be up. Central midfield looks weak.

It would be an over-simplification to say our `pass it out from the back' and possession-based game is the only cause though. A case in point is when we are hit on the break from our own corners, which has happened a lot over the last few years. This has nothing to do with style or football and everything to do with player positions, our shape, awareness of potential danger, players being responsible and having the desire and pace to get back. Our style of football has helped us score goals too.