gio1saints

I enjoy walking through tactical / strategic situations like this so please don’t get offended if you feel it’s overthinking. I agree with you generally here - it was well noted saints would replace Tella. But Saints did not. They bought a CF instead. They rented RF instead ( though it was quoted that RF was NOT the Tella replacement). The unspoken logic ( and this is my interpretation - just an opinion) was that between Sam, KS, Amo, now RF and even Charlie AA and Stu we might be able to sort it out. Clearly it’s got to the stage where it’s not been sorted out because we have to play KWP up front on the right - to the detriment of our right sided defence some might say. KWP’s future IS relevant though. If he is sold for £25m now or summer we appear pretty weak on the rh side. Which would not be quite the case if we had brought in a decent #7 type on loan with perhaps right to buy this window and they worked out well. IF we get a high level #7 it gives saints a little wiggle room if a big offer comes in for KWP. At present he’s virtually untouchable ( or as untouchable as anyone in our squad with these owners can be I should say- they all have a price).

KWP at present would be the one to be replaced by a new right wing. Presumably kwp would revert to RB or LB depending on Brees fitness, I guess This apparently strong desire to buy / rent a #7 may or may not have something to do with KWP’s future either now or in the summer. Just a thought. Also consider that Stu aged 31 is also out of contract in summer. He’s a right footed attacking mf. Maybe we just thinking ahead.

I did not deny we are unlikely to go into 2nd half of the season without replacing Che - if he leaves. I agree it’s very likely. Indeed if he goes I think we WILL get a replacement. Probably low fee as you say. I just speculate that if a #7 can do both - and this is potentially where the finance dept step in - that this too is a possibility. I then noted AA has essentially proved that kind of role can work and the existence of RS and SM seem to give a bit more credence to that accountants argument. It is in the realm of possibility. Just like getting a separate #9 and a separate #7 is. So why do you and Dman need jump in to insult me for simply suggesting it? It’s a forum to speculate on Saints possible transfers.

Why not stick to refuting my comment- the abuse is uncalled for. If Che leaves you state we will get a replacement? I don't disagree. It’s very possible. It’s been mentioned by RM. But do you really think it’s “utter shite” to think Saints might not want to splurge big money on another CF when we already got one new one crocked and Sekou awaiting his chance? And if so, a new #7 who can do both might be a cost effective solution? It’s just a possibility. The possibility of a right sided forward / winger also playing as nine is not a computer game, mate. It’s what Saints been doing for quite some time with Adam Armstrong and it’s proven successful. It’s clear what style of football you prefer and it’s not that. Saints bought a 6ft 2” cf to play the more traditional striker role that I expect you are more in favour of - but he’s crocked. How many big men we need? If a #7 can do both why is that utter shite?

What on earth are YOU rambling on about?😂 We are being associated with plenty right sided forward attacking players. Ie #7 types. I do not sense we are being associated with another #9 at present - unless Che leaves. And if so more likely a loan or a cheap purchase rather than big money Striker. RM has stated if Che leaves he’ll be replaced - but not by whom and not specifically by what style of player. IF Che leaves it’s entirely possible the accountants win and he is not replaced - it’s not unfeasible that the new #7 we appear to be keen to get plays as a false #9 at times as per our current system in which case. Hope that’s unrambled it for you. 😂😂😂😂

Guilty as charged. A intelligent answer on this forum can be like hens teeth so I’m super grateful! You are absolutely correct by spotlighting the classic fatal flaw in my comment. 45minutes football and even 25 matches of football preceding it is a weak measure of probability of what’s going to happen or is more likely to happen I should say, in the next 45 minutes. There may be a few mitigating ( but not winning - yours is superior overall) arguments available however which might be of succour to the degenerate gambler ( not me I hope😂) : 1. Unlike Roulette football is a game of ( mostly) skill, not chance. This should, in theory, enhance result predictability. 2. Time is of relevance. Results by different players in Saints teams of yore v Norwich (in this example) are of very little relevance to Jan 2024 result probability today. Results from a match up of the same teams and (almost) the same players four months ago is much more relevant, and adds weighting accordingly. 2. The data group used as reference included matches against every possible opponent in the league at least once including the current opponents. This rounds up / down the gross league statistical probability within a relevant time frame. 3. Semantics time, “tempted to“ is not same as “ will bet”. There is necessarily an evaluation of the odds offered before I might decide to bet on such a situation. 🤓. It goes without saying that my personal evaluation of probability with that suggested by the bookies is a critical factor. For instance if the bookies gave 2/1 on Saints scoring second half I might have considered taking that - but if they offered 2/5 I would decline. I managed to throw some “ insurance” money away on the match though because as soon as we went 0-1 up the odds on Norwich winning 2-1 ( my insta- evaluation of their most likely win in the last 25 minutes or so) went to 28/1. I consequently spent the equivalent of a seat plus travel costs getting there to insure they did not. And got what I deserved / wanted- lost the money but saints did not lose! That’s a degenerate approach lol.

He will probably start v Walsall but in what position is anyone’s guess. indefence of the shoehorning in argument you need only look at how many matches weve lost in this period.. It’s entirely possible that Saints were getting predictable and the JS thing - and it’s corollary - which is KWP playing right wing -has kept opposing managers who thought they could anticipate how we will play, guessing. if so credit for being able to mix up the players and system even within the same tactical framework - but the logic is too deep and advanced for me I’m afraid as I still prefer KWP at RB as do most in the forum it seems - but two goals conceded in 5 frames speaks for itself..

They got a point they scarcely deserved. We huffed and puffed but didn’t happen this time. Given Ipswich could not beat ten man stoke away and they are the team above us this point is not a bad result though as many already saying so no need for gloominess! I was worried we would not have the energy the latter part of this match so frankly I’m taking a point gratefully. And 18 league matches unbeaten! That’s unreal. Something I’ve never experienced as a saints fan. Amazing ! Well done team!

Manning has been told to do that. I would have thought that was obvious by now as it happens every week. I don’t really understand or necessarily agree with the logic of it frankly - ie it’s to keep ourselves defensively compact - but I don’t think singling out manning week after week for a slating - as happens here every match - for doing what he’s told is entirely fair on the bloke. “Blame” RM if you want to blame someone for this apparent vulnerability in our play but Manning is just doing what he’s told.

Close! Here are the facts which basically show his shooting stats rate this season. He has scored six goals so far - 6 goals from 23 shots of which 14 on target. In general, as you’d expect from our main striker, his figures are better than the average in our team. Not saying that’s great - it actually more highlights that putting ball in the net more still our issue ( who knew!!) Shots Data Total Per 90 Minutes Percentile Shots Taken 23 2.01 94 Shots On Target 14/ 23 1.22 97 Shots Off Target 9/ 23 0.79 84 Hit The Woodwork 1 times 0.09 89 Shot Conversion Rate 26.09% 86 Shot Accuracy 60.87% 81 Shots Per Goal Scored 3.83 Che Adams has taken 23 shots in 21 matches so far in the Championship 2023/2024 season. Of the 23 shots, 14 shots were on target and the other 9 shots were off target. That means that Adams's shooting accuracy is 60.87%. He scores a goal for every 3.83 shots he takes and takes 2.01 shots per 90 minutes on the pitch.

Looks like a team picked to weather an early storm and then come good late. I’m thinking it’s going to be a 433 like when we played them earlier this season. Albeit different personnel. Thus time we have plus Flynn and plus THB and plus Aribo on form plus keeping Che if we need a 97 minute goal! Objectively we are stronger in personnel than last time and stronger in playing PB football than last time. Whether that counts…let’s see COYS!

I think Che’s numbers are available….what would your guess be?

Great answer! Though statistically compared to rest of this league not as many loads as one might think 🤣

I’m unsure whether this is common knowledge here but at present the stats are as follows : 1. Saints need to shoot 9 times in order to score a goal. (percentage is 0.11 of our shots go in). A match with 27 shots we should be scoring with three, on average, basically. Does not mean 27shots =3 goals, but it does mean, on average, this season, 27 shots should mean 3 goals. 2. Saints score just under one in three of every shot on target (percentage 0.3) meaning 3/10 shots on target go in. Does not mean about one in every three shots we hit the target will go in. It means that, on average, this season, 1 in about 3 go in. Apologies if that explanation sounds pedantic but it’s pretty important - someone is sure to come on here at some point and say “ but we had 5 shots on target but no goals so you and all this data shite are hillocks” 😂 ( source FBref database) NB, If, like me, you like a flutter and you see that Saints have had a sack full of shots and ditto shots on target in a match ( as an example say we had 10 shots first half today v Norwich and 5 on target but no goals) then it’s the kind of in match situation where I might be tempted to bet on saints actually scoring at some point second half. But that’s only if the odds are decent - in the situation above I’d say it was evens or better we’d score second half so the odds must be at least evens or frankly better or 7/4 or better for me to place the bet.

You nay be right but we are not being associated with another #9 - but rather attacking right forward type players . And the clearest favourite ( aside from AN) to leave this window is Che imo . IF Carvalho was brought in essentially we’d be getting more of the false 9 type approach that, so far, has proven effect five in this league. I do t see us getting a Carvalho plus another #9 unless it’s very special circumstances. If one was available at a great price or if AA got injured essentially . That Ben guy- his goals look for all the world like exact goals KWP scores - which does worry me a tad!

All these tricky right sided midfield forward type players being put in the beauty parade for Saints does suggest there’s no smoke without fire. Im my view the “fire” is more likely to be active preparation by JW and others in case we get ridiculous must accept bids for certain of our players rather than massively progressive we gonna get one more attacking player irrespective planning. Just my view though. Given all current candidates ( and I include Carvalho, Ben and Diallo) are unlikely to come sit on a bench or will have must play clauses from parent clubs of some sort it makes me wonder who they are replacing if they do get picked up and / or we do not sell anyone? Our best ( starting) tricky right sided forward types are : KWP: our best player. Surely not sold now. Please 🙏 not. AA: our captain in absence of JS and a revelation this season. Top scorer and assists in league. Integral to everything good we do. Surely not? SA: Having a good season. Still not 90 minutes fit but very effective both left right and centre. KS : He’s the prototype but he’s injured. Surely nobody would buy an injured player with all that promise ? 😉 Che : is not really an exact fit but he also seems most likely to leave - and his replacement is crocked in any case. So he is obvs the fave to leave and the one to be replaced with this new player imo. Hard to put my finger on it but gut tells me we will be reactive not proactive here. IF Che goes then we will enter market for loan of one of these ( or other unnamed ), but if Che stays then I think it’s unlikely.

Che must leave if Carvalho is to come. Only way that can work I reckon. Che costs us his foregone January fee - say £6m if he stays and leaves end of season. But what is his absence going to cost to the team in the back end of the season? Would Carvalho score the 6/7/8 goals that I think we reasonably might expect from Che between now and end of season? Would Carvalho better Che’s assists? Would Carvalho learn our PB based style quickly enough not to be a liability early doors? How would rest of squad ( especially younger attacking players ) feel about his getting a starting berth so quickly? Ah the joys of football management!

Probably, Because we can’t afford a finished article top class goalkeeper with that profile. And even if we did find a goalie of that calibre would they be prepared to come to SFC? And even if somehow they fancied it and we were able to afford him they would likely be in their prime or post prime and losing value each year- unlike a young keeper like Baz who ( assuming continues his trajectory of improvement ) gets more valuable each year and especially when and if back in EPL. Buy and play young talent mix with some experience then sell them after a few years development has pretty much been our model since we been in the EPL. Prefer it was not so I agree with your feeling- but don’t think there’s much we can do about it..

@AlexLaw76 I don’t think calling baz a good goalie who could be a great goalie if he continues his current trajectory is horrendously biased. Maybe biased but horrendously so. Nah. 🤣. If you dont think he’s a good goalie that’s fine but to suggest that having that opinion one must be horrendously biased is a bit ott and suggests you have a very different view of his ability but choose not to say it. Fair enough. Im not going to do the research ( unless I really must..) but my gut tells me there are not too many current International goalkeepers of his age. ✅That alone already unbiased and objectively praiseworthy fact. Nor are there many starting goalkeepers in this league or the one above of his tender age. again unbiased objective fact ✅ Let alone keepers asked to play in a style hitherto the domain of outfielders. Ie almost like a sweeper and with plenty more ball touches per match. Again, unbiased objective fact. ✅ Add that he’s been in goal for every minute of the unbeaten run in which he had already made many significant saves ( and scored a last minute equaliser - almost!) and I think suggesting it’s horrendously biased to say he is a good goalie - and could be great - is unwarranted. Im sure plenty teams would want Gav as their goalie so let’s enjoy him while he is here ( ok brain fart silly goals aside!) 🤣

Does anyone know if they have gone over today and where staying for NYE or if they will coach it tomorrow morning?

Most of SMS have a different pov to some of his long standing critics on here. Most of SMS are chanting his name every game during before and after match end. They recognise his ability & courage and recognise playing this way FDuk ups will occur. They know he is a big talent but also he is effing brave to play this way and that confidence is critical - so our support vital. I share that view. overreacting to that mistake would be a worse mistake imo. Most of our PB play was very good indeed. Some not so good and 1% bad. That’s life. We are lucky ( should say grateful actually, to players like Baz for having the courage to persist in the face of all the wailing and abuse at SMS early season) we get so much very good almost every match nowadays it’s a privilege to watch and high value for the ticket price - unlike many previous seasons. Good goalie is Baz, could be great continues this line of progress. 😇

I’m not s massive Che fan but some of the dissent v him isway OTT. I heard a bunch of groans every time the ball was even near Che. He was blamed for other player mishaps also! His off side goal provoked outrage - at how bad his run was - let alone it was an absolutely top class brilliant finish and a marginal if that call…as for his goal - funny how a total crap hate figure player suddenly miraculously becomes a hero by scoring. He’s NOT been great - but he’s not been as shit as some say either is the truth. Manning is another one that is prejudged every match - so even if he plays well he should Fock off never play for saints again etc ( and presumably play a kid at FB - one of our most important positions instead you wallies!?!). The presumption is always he is bad but he noticeable does a lot of good things- if you look without prejudice. Both Che and Ryan appear doomed as Saints players however at least Che contract situation aside because they are not “favoured” by the fans. Good riddance many here will say. Let’s see who replaces them before you get too excited at that prospect though…

Fair point - I do like to give kids a chance but this match after they scored was not it and the argument that we could have put (Amo?) on for Che when we already have Ryan there is a little bit weaker. I think it’s probably more important to RM that our defence remains solid than we blood youngsters. Our improvement on goals conceded means every time we score we’re already unlikely to lose- we are not used to that! Its also worth bearing in mind that Jack Stephens fitness means both Jan and THB know they have real competition to start. And that does wonders for concentration. Keeping JS on the bench - next to Mason- does not have quite the same impact as knowing he is getting on wherever at some point.

Good point. A lot of our players make A LOT of runs every match without getting the ball passed to them. I dont think it’s as much “ ignored” as perhaps not quite got the speed of thought and ball-foot coordination to react quickly enough to deliver the ball. The THB ball to Che whilst a superb pass for instance was relatively straightforward and well within the centre of his line of sight. Passes that are more diagonal or have to go through lines of defenders at an angle take super fast mental calculation to be able to hit the pass with the right pace trajectory etc. We might be spoiled because we can watch World class players do it in the EPL playing for Man City etc but it’s still one of the highest levels of skill ie being able not only to see the incisive pass but to be able to deliver it. Im glad we seem to be more prepared to use that kind of ball - though I imagine it’s opponent based as well as our forward line based. Che’s offside goal in first half was a good example Also.

Might be controversial but I think WBA were best team we played at SMS this season so far - by a margin. I’m not surprised they have players in demand.