gio1saints

I apologise if my response came across as condescending. Thank you in turn for apologising for your ott response. I hope that you have access to the following website so you can look for yourself and see where the stats I quoted come from. It’s been objectively helpful recently in my understanding of what’s going in with russball. But yeah, Lies damned lies and stats we all know the quote. 😇 https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats#all_stats_squads_possession

Alcaraz was a 50/1 shot and I took e/w. It’s obvs a long shot not a nap. You are right though- never get cocky because betting is a losing game more often than not. So, don’t gamble kids!

FWIW Saints are TOP of the Championship for yellow cards. The number of yellow cards that are extra/over the league average are due, imo, to us not getting our defensive positioning correct early season, especially in transitions/ on the counterattack attack. I was worried earlier this season by this because we are not getting out this league playing with ten men too often. - but less so now. I think we have/or more accurately had, a tendency to over commit going forward in order to create an overload (pass and score around opponents by outnumbering them ) but when we’ve lost possession it’s necessitated a tug back or blatant foul by one of our players to break up the play before it gets too dangerous. Hence yellow cards. RM / the team seem to have noticed this and we seem less vulnerable to the break than before ( less not immune - we still suffer and it’s still a thing especially at home). Perhaps the lesson is that really only one fb should be offensive at any one time- not both as it leaves us too exposed. Bree seems to have got the message. Early season Manning was trying to copy KWP but much less successfully. Good news is that allthree ( and Larios I think) have it in their locker to bomb forward - difference is now that we are being a bit more discriminating about when and how it happens.

I’m sorry if the facts do not suit your narrative. Getting angry with me won’t change the facts. We are 5th bottom at turning shots into goals but third in numbers of shots overall and top for shot creating actions. Your premise was we don’t shoot enough. I said fair- but that an alternate was we actually do - but not enough go in. What is it you fail to understand? Why get offensive to me? I’ve posted some facts about Southampton’s play here, which are easily available online. I’ve offered an alternative point of view to your own, and backed it up. It should not elicit that kind of response if you want to discuss anything Saints here and frankly will put people off posting there opinions if anything As for some of the fellow angry comments. I recognise the names - the usual irrational anti RM mob who have had to keep quiet because, well, eight games unbeaten kind of fucks up that pov. Im a saints fan happy we are doing better then for a long time. Enjoying the moment. Enjoying the style. Many saints fans feel same. Winning Saturday when a draw was fair was karma for drawing v Rotherham when 4-1 would have been fair if you like!

I agree with keeping team as unchanged as possible. Many times we try to be clever “ resting” players it ends badly. Just pick our best fit players to beat Huddersfield and worry about Bristol and Cardiff matches afterwards. I believe our squad is very strong though small and that by end of season when the physicality of this league has really eaten into some of the less high quality squads we will pull away. That, and the fact that we will be running less than our opponents match after match should count for some end of season extra freshness for us.

One counter theory to that is that it’s probably a case of your ( and many fans) perception rather than the objective reality. Let me put some factual context into that statement : Saints are currently far and away the team with the most touches of the ball in the final third in our league (and I mean by miles), so far this season. Then, add that Saints have the third highest shot creating actions (SCA/90 mins) this season in our league and a picture starts to emerge. That’s Better than LCFC and LUFC incidentally but less than Ipswich and Sunderland. That may be all well and good but we don’t shoot enough whatever. Fair- BUT- from the data, it’s not that we don’t get into goal scoring situations final third or are lacking in shots versus the rest of league. What it is- and this is blatantly obvious if you look at the stats - is that we do not score enough from our shots on goal. Indeed we are currently 4th or 5th bottom of the Championship on converting shots into goals. And THAT is the nub of the problem. Third highest shots per match and by far most touches of ball in opposition Final third but those shots are basically bottom of the league standard in terms of actually going in. And that’s why we can summise we have bought the Loch Ness Drogba to address that major weakness turning shots into goals.

Same stage (number of games as them) last season in the championship : https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/league-table/2022-2023/date/20221022

Very astute observation. Ryan has got an older wiser head on his shoulders - and if his job is to lob it over to RS to head in that’s what he will do - but KS has the speed and probably desire to “ make his name” so that altruism is not quite natural to him- yet. IF KS gets that onboard he could be a ridiculously valuable EPL player..and I think that’s how Saints see him too.

Stu was not physically fit to start/ complete 90. RM has eased him into 90 minutes very carefully. Sulemana was not able to understand his role in and out of possession plus was also coming back from injury. Edozie just “ got it” quicker so got the LW starts. Charlie has also taken time to understand his role in the team- again especially out of possession. And his discipline as well. Quality not an issue but defensive discipline a little bit.

I thought WBA were massive! And they are a play off team for sure I’d say. WBA def up there as one of best teams we played in the league, if not quite the best. I thought our second half performance was pants - but they got the job done. Last season we would simply lose that game quite easily. This season- we win and avoid losing even when not playing well. Good sign. But we really do need to sort out this second half drop off thing and put matches to bed quicker. We are good enough to do so. Hopefully they will come. Note that Watford did what we should have done to Rotherham!!!

Three out of three. ✅✅✅ And three weeks of winning Saints tips. ✅✅✅ This is officially 100% a winning tip spree. NB and I correctly anticipated the Charlie booking also. Wonder what the odds might have been all four? 😇

First pint of CLA hammer juicy pale ale 5% vol in entrance h concourse. Danci g man brewery concession. Recommended . ✅

4 points Saints to win 17/20. 2points AA to score anytime. 13/8 2pts special bet: AA to score anytime, over 2gls and saints win, is available at 9/2. Reason: 1. We are better than these. 2. I been watching the times players should have passed to AA instead of shooting ( and not scoring) and then seeing him unselfishly cut the ball back to Ryan Fraser for that late goal v Millwall. Suspect RM will have showed them those opportunities too.And pointed out AA us doing it right not them. Expect them to pass to him in this match a bit more in those positions accordingly. plus- having RS on the bench is a good incentive for our lead Striker to show why he’s not the one to be replaced. 3. Same might be said of Charlie and KS with Ryan breathing down his neck but I’m unsure if he starts so I’m going with AA for this one. Expect a card for Charlie though.

From the way RM said it my money is on Holgate for Jan (the enforced change he alludes to) and Bree for Manning. RS may make an appearance depending on the state of the game. Scenes if he comes on and scores a 95th minute winner! 😂

Thanks for the great summary again Alex. 👍. Always excited at prospect of seeing a CF make his debut - I wonder what that means for our bench? Presumably someone has to make way for RS to be there so if it’s as per what we’ve seen so far this season I think Sekou misses out? I don’t think it would be Che unless he’s still an injury doubt?

So true, and I might add, even a victory will elicit the agonising analysis of why we are still terrible for some!

Great link Saint86! I’ve bookmarked it and will certainly be checking it out over course of the season. Even the most cursory of checks can now categorically inform and educate many of the debates on here about the way we play football. It’s the classic perception versus reality that we all suffer from. Two people watching same match can come away saying that player A was crap on the ball but also Player A was good, or that we don’t get many touches in final third or vice versa. Straight away some of the mythology about us not getting the ball forward and attacking enough compared to rest of the league put straight to bed. Just one ( of many) that grabbed my eye was how low vs the rest of league our tackles were. LCFC for example have way more tackles in final third and central areas- they are obviously set up to be more robust in those zones - and it reinforces the perception/ reality that our mf and defenders are a bit tackle / physical confrontation-shy. certainly I don’t think I ever saw Ryan Manning tackle anyone. 😂. Wether that’s deliberate or not or if it’s a good or bad thing over the course of a whole season remains to be seen - but they are top and we are not and this stat is one of the ( relatively few actually) in which (points aside) there is clear blue sky between then and us performance stats-wise. Dont need to be a football manager to come up with the idea that maybe if we got a bit physically closer to the opposition and actually tackled them more that we may not concede as many as we did - but again , it’s v.important to emphasise that it remains to be seen over the course of a season whether there are benefits to this apparently “tackle-shy” thing we have - perhaps there’s a correlation to numbers of forward passes or forward carries due to being in more space at breakdowns for example- or shots - that we cannot see right now. All interesting ( to me anyway!) 😇

Assuming that Saints should walk this league, should beat WBA, anyone, by looking at names on a team sheet, amount spent or the result of any one match or series of matches is one dimensional. Very easy. But not the full story. Which those using it as a stick to beat RM and the club ( and the mug supporters who think it’s going ok) know full well. The obvious trolling of supporters and the club that’s still taking place to do so despite the start point of utter chaos post and pre relegation with an exit only sign for players but then, recruitment and, slowly, obvious signs of improvement, obvious development, obvious rectifying of mistakes, obvious club and team unity growth and understanding and now some decent results in a row is not unnoticed. But it’s really hard to understand. Saints fans deserve hope after many seasons of depressing outcomes. We seem at last to have that via RM and this team which is reactive to mistakes and makes adjustments along the way - just as we’d hope. Just as we’d expect - even demand. So enjoy these days whilst we can. Enjoy supporting Saints on this oath. Lets try not get spooked or imprisoned by ghosts of our past ( hard for long term fans I know) and concentrate on the here and now. 😇

Watching Liverpool get that injury time goal away to Luton just brought back all those ( many) times that was us conceding late late goals despite our brave performance against so called “ better” teams. Now it’s Saints who are the so-called “better team” more often than not in this league and it’s Saints getting those late late equalisers or winners. Deservedly or not. Played well or not. It is a good sign. It is a sign of resilience and belief - resilience and belief that has been absent for far too long and which was so evident by its absence so often in seasons past. Seven matches unbeaten does not mean we are past it - it’s still apparent at times out there especially the wobbly moments - but it’s certainly good evidence that at last Saints are building something that is sustainable - a belief that, after years of being basically uncompetitive, that our football is good enough to be competitive at championship level and with this style in particular, hopefully EPL next season. And I mean competitive- not cannon fodder and a team to be pitied as being plucky losers or “ hard workers” week after week as we get dicked by the top 15 and just hoping to avoid bottom three. I think this team , it’s mentality and it’s intelligence, technical skill and patience under RM are showing SOME good signs of that all season and MORE of it is evident each game . It’s a learning process and it seems to be happening. Yes there’s still some nonsense play to iron out for sure . We are still learning and football is still able to produce random ball bounces, injuries, suspensions, muddy pitches, rebounds and lucky or unlucky breaks for and against anyone - but the signs are promising and consistently so. Increasingly we are the masters of our own results. Let’s be clear though - it’s not a linear process - so it is to be EXPECTED when we lose to another team or it goes horribly wrong in a match or series of matches. Defeats and fuck ups are all part of the learning process. And you often learn more from the fuck ups than the easy wins. We are NOT Man City. It’s now game seven of our 30 match unbeaten run 😉😇COYS!

At this rate Opponent Teams will start wetting themselves when it gets to injury time if the game is still competitive. Will become a self perpetuating thing. The opponents expect us to score. We expect us to score. We score. And repeat.

0-1. We win net Plus two points on that. Two net winning saints bets in a row. Thank you Mr. Wee Man! 😇. This clearly now qualifies as a tip win spree lol.

That’s why he’s 28/1 1st goalscorer. Same last goalscorer. I just think he will get one headed or penalty area tap in from a corner chance. Let’s see.

Following my successful debut last week ( tipped Charlie anytime goalscorer @ 11/4) I return with my suggestions for Millwall. 1 points= whatever stake you are comfortable with. 10p, £1, £10 your choice. 1. Saints win. 4 pts 2. Saints win correct score 1-2 ( 8/1) 1pt 3. THB and FD anytime goalscorers 11/1 and 9/1 respectively. If you are feeling bold go first goalscorer Flynn and last THB - both around 25/1. A 2pt double gets you 1300pts! Reasons. 1-2 is our usual away win score. For Flynn is he will get stick from Millwall and be especially keen to score. Reason for THB is he is on a run ( lol) and will surely be encouraged to get up there again, especially late on if we need a goal Saints will not want to drop points in “ the hunt” so Massive effort to win envisaged. COYS and good luck everyone!

Thank you Alex again for your summary.

I was there too. No true Saints fan can feel anything but happiness at karma catching up with Everton. That was OUR cup that year, the fuckers.