gio1saints

Now now T, when you are wrong yiu are wrong. Here, you are wrong. Put it this way, if it makes it clearer for you to understand, I wrote that 96 is SURELY enough for automatic. If your response to that is NO then your refutation ( though not inference regarding my state of mind) is valid. But if your response is YES or even probably or possibly yes then my post is entirely logical. And your retorts missing the point rather badly. surely yes to 96 means points from the 4 tough aways are essentially freebies. surely no to 96 means points from the 4 tough aways are not essentially freebies. IF 96 points is enough to get automatic it is irrelevant who we get them from. Please don’t get upset that you overlooked that simple logic. I know you take great care over the accuracy of your posts - especially the pictures which are often very pretty 😍

Bit sloppy for you T. Out of context you are 100% correct in saying the 4 matches away are essentially free hits. Of course they cannot be. What you sloppily missed, or deliberately ignored, is that I had prepared that comment with a specific context. That specific context was on the basis that we would achieve 96 points from the other matches, and that surely 96 points equals automatic. I’n which case the four away matches could be essentially free hits if we have 96. Perhaps you thought getting 96 from those other matches was crazy too? Ambitious but not crazy I’d say. Hope that’s cleared it up for you. Wouldn’t want you to be under the misapprehension that crazy logic was being used because I know how carefully you ( usually. ) construct your posts. 😁😇

Made me feel all emotional. Lovely fella. Great attitude. Proud he’s at Southampton. If he carries on playing scoring and assisting until end of season , ( helped by if Che & Stu stay til the end, ) I can see the Scotland Manager not having to do much thinking to realise Ryans experience, goals and assists make his inclusion in the euro squad an easy decision.

TBH I’m still a little perplexed at the implications of this signing. On first impression it’s a solid squad signing. But I’m still not convinced that’s all it means. I’m probably wrong but my radar is tingling.. It’s been in the works several weeks, apparently, according to Joe. The position he plays we already, arguably, have plenty strength in depth. He does not appear to have outstanding characteristics not already evident in current squad. That being the case, why is he here unless, I guess, there is an outgoing planned? And that outgoing is in the position Joe plays? Of the candidates: Joe Aribo is at Afcon and on a big wage ( like Stu). He’s been hinted at elsewhere on forum as a possible leaver but it’s hard to see that happening unless and until he gets back to UK - in which case it’s very last minute. He’d be my favourite to be the one going atm though ( IF anyone is outgoing that is) . Stu is prob leaving in six months - but would he be sold in this window if a good offer came in? The total absence of rumour is suspicious in itself given his status is exactly same as Che - for whom there’s loads of gossip. Second favourite for me to leave. Cant be Flynn. or Shea. Might be Will - but I very doubt Will would leave us having just got his mojo in the first team. Could be Charlie. Could be Charlie. Love Charlie but it could be him. I hopes not. please not. Anyhow, if nobody leaves it just means strength in depth for the last 19 plus cup games run in..hoping that’s what it is!

Which was the gist of my post. Nothing has changed. Real Madrid cannot go broke because they are backed by the Spanish government. Man City are 81% owned by the UAE. Paris SG etc etc etc. What has changed is that no new upstarts can join the club - which is I think your -and my - point. Give you example: In Italy there’s been a bunch of bribery scandals over the years. Juve got double demoted for it years back. Players get banned, key Directors disallowed and owners get sanctioned. But guess who are the top four clubs in Italy , still, despite “ crackdowns” on bribery? Now guess who the top four clubs in all the top European leagues are x years after FFP came into practice? All FFP has done, arguably, is fund holiday homes for lawyers and crystallise decades of corruptly funded inequality in football club ownership.

It’s just my rather cynical view on the corruption that is modern football ownership and the facilitating role the governing bodies have played. You only have to look at how Worlds Cups were ( and are) awarded. Fish rot from the head down. FFP was one of those “ look we are not as corrupt as all that” ideas that helped mask the reality - when in fact it’s been manipulated endlessly and has not achieved anything.

Exactly right, all of it. One KWP team re-jig implication of your post is that it might also open the door a little bit more for our mini KWP - Meg. He‘s being groomed for that and in the case of KWP going - and perhaps injury to either JB or RM, that may be accelerated. Silver linings etc I’ve never liked trying to convert tricky wingers into FB’s - only Ashley Young has done it to a high level as far as I’m aware but a wild thought 1% chance may be Sam Edozie. Despite his defensive naivety latterly he’s shown more nous ( one tracking back sliding challenge late on I recall was potentially goal saving) so wild as it may be, his trialling as a wing-back may also be enabled. He certainly has the attacking ability. Overall the most likely scenario were KWP sold aside from Plan A you describe above with JB ( and apart from the obvious borrowing a Chelsea / EPL FB on 6mth loan)is the use of JS or at a push MH at RB and a greater responsibility / reliance on Charlie, Stu, Aribo, Jo , Amo and KS for offensive take-on actions. The latter two most likely. NB and if the new RW comes in it would help if they know how to play/ defend in a PB system. With that context it makes Benson multiple boxes ticked so one can clearly understand our strong interest.

You may be right. But it’s a guess isn’t it so I don’t really know what’s your point on a thread dedicated to future next match possibilities?

Why ?

Ah those happy happy joyful and innocent times when Dell attendees up the Archers could sing “ you’re going home in a Hampshire ambulance “ or as a contrast but in the same vein : “ you’re gonna get your f@ckin heads kicked in” at full blast, gleefully, playfully, menacingly. indeed the Dell song sheets were long and glorious back then. Who could forget “Hullo, Hullo, Southampton Aggro Southampton Aggro hullo” or “ get into them” - a short but sweet ode revered as a comfort and joy bringer to the boot boys on the terraces. Ah halcyon times. Footballs got far too violent these days😂

To amuse myself I did a little breakdown on how many points I think we make this season. We have 10 away fixtures and 9 home fixtures left in this league. Of the 9 home fixtures none are against ITFC, LCFC, WBA or Leeds. The hardest seems to be Coventry, on current form. We’d be favourites to win every single one with the bookies but I might begrudgingly accept a draw or two - max . That’s 23-27 points from home matches that I think we are high probability to achieve. Running total using the median number of points (25) + 55 ( currently) = 80 points achieved from our remaining home fixtures. Of the 10 away fixtures we still need play ITFC, LCFC, WBA and Leeds. Those aside, there are six matches against teams like Swansea that, once again, I expect us to be favoyrites with the bookies to win but would begrudgingly accept a draw or two. Points from those six aways should be at least 14 -18. Running total using median number of points (16) + 80 ( from above) = 96 points. Would 96 be enough to go up automatically? Reasonsble argument to say it is. But I have not accounted for the four tough away matches. One win one draw and two defeats from those matches would see us on 100points. Surely you don’t get third on 100points? The point I’m making is that if Southampton take care of the home form and deal with the weaker teams away from home then those four harder fixtures are essentially free hits. Of course if Leeds or Ipswich go on a ridiculous run of form then it’s possible both they and LCFC get more than, say, 96 points but , of the two, Leeds look more likely. NB. I know we don’t get to play all the home matches in a row - have just made an assumption we retain our home form until end of season that’s all I will do the same prediction assessment for Leeds and Ipswich and add it here see what we get to…😁

I suspect that FFP was brought in to counter the accusation that buying and selling football clubs had become a giant international money laundering scheme. And that FIFA UEFA the EPL etc were not only allowing it but complicit. It’s all corrupt as hell.

Thing is, a team that has already got Reece James at RB hardly needs KWP. And he’s surely not a loan while Reece repairs?

IF a big money offer comes in for any of our players they are going to look at it. If we were offered £30m for KWP I think SR accepts myself. £20m or below I think they pass. Inbetween maybe a swop is included.

Not signing a RW would not be make or break for Saints this season, all things being equal. IMO. Any replacement for Che though cannot just be a “goal scorer”, that’s not enough. They need to be able to be effective in a team that plays PB football. That means possess high technical ability, high stamina, great humility & selflessness, plus high football intelligence in tactical and situational awareness to hit the ground running. That is why I think we may be a little surprised if/when Che goes at the type of replacement brought in. It won’t be a Tall Paul type put it that way!

The stats are from the season to date for Swansea. 27 matches. The new Swans manager is of the same mould as RM ie PB football. So i do not expect them to have big overlapping fb’s for instance and lobbing balls into the mixer. Though they may well do exactly that to catch us off guard. But I’m not paid a bazillion like RM to determine if that will or will not happen. 😁

It’s healthy to change your mind if the evidence suggests it to you. It’s usually a mark of high intelligence but also pretty courageous to do - so kudos. My view on Che is reluctantly on the side of sell - I have same reservations as yourself BUT if we get a l4l replacement that balances out. My analysis of Che ( Ive posted this somewhere) suggests he is statistically speaking, good for around another 6 goals this season if he stays. Any replacement scores less than that ( or with added assists ) then it’s been a mistake- even with £6m banked. Replacement scores and assists more- it was the right call.

https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/everto-wolves-and-crystal-palace-discover-price-they-must-pay-for-southampton-player-this-month/

Yup I agree. I think that the times of one player one club are behind us so it’s especially a good milestone. Players are bought and sold- and managers- like new mobiles. Basically they’re replaced or “upgraded” regularly and their useful lifespan is countable in much shorter timescales than say twenty years ago. Which directly impacts upon the nature of the typical supporter with their club. If it’s a revolving door of new players and new managers owned by new owners what’s to love? And why? Pretty soon 200 matches one team will be regarded as extraordinary rather than ah is that so kind of response. Bit sad hence why I’m trying to resist , futilely, the tide. 😇

Checked out the opta stats on Swansea and they seem to be weak on the flanks at rb and lb in terms of their opponents having possession there. Suggests they defend narrow. Bit like us really. Also Suggests to me that Ryan will be able to get a lot of the ball. He’s 9/1 first goalscorer, 9/1 last and 10/3 anytime if anyone’s interested. I’m on. Certainly looking good for assisting also. Plus he’s on fire. If he’s fit then he is gonna have fun… Can also see Amo getting a chance late on to play down the flanks if we are comfortable ( or even if not).

Thanks. I’ve subscribed to opta analyst on back of that article.

Great point! All the saints fans who are in smaller but noisy support groups around the ground can now potentially coalesce into the Northam. They should probably be offered priority to the newly available Northam seats/stand. One great thing about the Dell was that it was compact and intimidating for away teams. Cannot recreate that intimidating feel at SMS but the next best thing ( imo) is to put the away support in a corner somewhere (😁) and have a red and white monopoly both ends to maximise vocal support for the team. NB. If this happens I’m fairly certain that we will kick off to the Northam second half - unlike at present. Would be nice to give team close and loud second half support to get those goals right in front of us. Especially as we seem to score so many late goals. Hidden in the detail is the idea of a mixed seating/ standing area. This will be an interesting item!

Yes. I am a current Northam season ticket holder. It very much affects me. I have Been to every home match this season. But you are right. If you not a regular at SMS there’s limited - but not zero - value to input.

Registered my interest to attend more focus group stuff on it. Am very much in favour.

Much as I love the happy dancing dogs, to say we will win an away match easily is just a Bonio size too dogtastic for my imagination. We have not won ANY match away from kennels easily for countless years let alone an away match easily during this walkies. I do think it’s a win but it requires some dogged application - so your dancing dogs are a good clue. 🐶 😇.