buctootim

The infections to deaths rate is the best measure but we’ll never know the true rate for the first round last year because there wasn’t the random sample testing and mass testing. Best proxy is covid hospitalisations to deaths which, from memory,is better this round - ie admissions have been higher whilst deaths are about the same, That indicates better treatment .

Post by post you solidify your reputation. His point was that the pandemic was man made by our actions.

As always you miss the point. Truck movements are down 5-18% but volumes are down much more. The Hauliers Association estimating up to 68% of EU trucks are returning empty because UK exports have disappeared.

Southsea and special brew

Ha, unlucky. I go there too This place is awesome for a few nights. They make their own AOC wine, olive oil and wild boar sausages. https://www.locandadipraticino.com/

Love that corner of France but still prefer the warm but greener Dordogne. Cant beat dinner in the square at Sarlat.

PCR tests just detect the presence of the targets agent's DNA in the body. It can't differentiate between active infections and dead bacteria viruses still circulating. A while ago I tested positive using PCR despite having had antibiotics six months earlier which resolved the infection

Religion changes over time too

Exactly. Ask what existed before or why it happened they get very hazy all of a sudden.

Big bang theory is just the latest in an ever changing array of theories about where the universe came from. Might hold up over time, might not. Einstein thought his Static Universe theory was correct.

There are only two answers and neither are particularly plausible. What do you want? an in-person question and answer session with God? Option 1. We and everything in the world were made by a man in the sky. Option 2. The universe used to be the size of a pinhead then it exploded and shattered into billions of pieces. Bacteria which came from nowhere grew on one of the pieces of rock flying at 20,000mph through space. Fish evolved from the bacteria and we evolved from the fish. Make your choices. What you can't say is that believing in one over the other is illogical. Well obvs you can and do but it doesnt make you right and everyone else wrong.

Awoman to that

Who knows - maybe the vaccination centres were as a result of feedback or maybe they were planned all along. Either way they werent announced until after the GPs were approached to do the job and that's where the concerns over delivery capacity came from.

Your post made it appear as though you were saying the UK signed a raft of agreements with various companies all in one go and the EU didnt do the same until three months later. What happened is that deals were in a different sequence. Yes the UK signed the AZ deal three months ahead but the EU signed other deals ahead of the UK.

I agree in principle. Acting in concert for 27 members is a great way to maintain unity, get bulk purchasing power, have heft in negotiations etc. But its not great for situations like this which benefit from being nimble / fast.

Not quite. Some months ago my partner's GP practice along with a few hundreds of others had been asked to create vaccination centres. She made the point that they would never be able to deliver the volume needed. Obviously the feedback from GPs was taken onboard because whilst some GP practices are being used most of the heavy lifting is being done by temporary centres set up for the purpose and DGHs

Probably, although you could also argue that the approach might have been different if Britain had been contributing to the discussions. Essentially its two different philosophies - the EU / WHO approach of trying to make sure every member or country gets an equitable share based on need. Or the nationalistic grab led by the US and Britain. As Kraken says on another post, you can be happy to benefit from that system because as Brits we've done well out of it. It doesn't neccessarily mean its the right one though.

I've just had a quick read of that. Seems like a decent synopsis. As I said elsewhere there has been a large degree of luck about which of the horses backed has come home. The other two issues for the EU is that 1. politically it would be untenable for some member countries, say Germany, to be fully vaccinated and others like the Baltics or Cyprus to be left behind and 2. It's harder to secure supplies for 450 million people than it is for 65 million

Well done. Yet another point whooshed over your head. The NHS set up dedicated vaccination centres exactly because the GP surgeries couldn't deliver the volume needed, proving my point not disproving it. I guess a job in sales didn't equip you for healthcare planning.

That's untrue. The negotiations and contract signings were sequential. Britain agreed with Oxford first because it was domestic just as the EU agreed with Pasteur and BioNTech first.

They haven't fucked up to be fair. There has been a huge slice of luck in who has come out smelling of roses and who has come out smelling of the fertiliser. Britain, the US and the EU all acted promptly to get orders in. The EU have been unlucky in that their portfolio of suppliers have had more problems whether by the vaccine not working or production problems. Britain planned well but its also been lucky. If the Oxford vaccine had failed but the Pasteur Institute one had worked the situation would be totally reversed and we'd be the ones wailing.

Not necessarily. Some might give absolute protection to particular groups but not generate any immune in others. This one plus also the Oxford / AZ vaccine which are both based in attenuated viruses seem to work best in reducing severity of infection

Yep at first sight 68% isn’t all that but the impressive part is that no-one at all in the trials died or needed hospital treatment. So sure 32% get Covid but it’s the severity of a cold. I’d be happy with that,

On a slightly different tack, why do we need 367m shots? Even accepting most need two doses that's still enough for almost three times our population. Vaccines are also not the kind of thing you hoard to use in three years time either, because viruses evolve and change.