CanadaSaint

Hate to say it because I normally prefer to be positive, but if I was running Saints anyone who offered us five million would be missing an armpit. I’m with Ervin. His body shape is now more suited to being a prop or a hooker than a striker, and I can’t understand why the club would let him bulk up like that. He has limited talent and now he may become more injury prone.

The mood appears to have lightened somewhat since the reverse orgasm of the 2021 predictions thread. Haven’t seen much of SKD.

I don't think it is at all, for the reasons MLG outlined. As I posted a couple of days ago, most of last year his confidence was undermined by things going on around him - losing Romeu, always having to defer to Stephens (who would carry the ball for 20 yards before giving it away and putting us back under pressure), covering Vest’s slow turns and brain farts, losing KWP and being asked to mark Saint-Maximin, the debacle at Old Trafford, and so on. He looks much more assured with Poland. I don't ever see a Top 5 club bidding for him but this is a season in which Bednarek can become a decent CB.

And it's not just that we don't seem to produce any good keepers. It's also that we don't do well at correcting the glaringly obvious faults in the senior keepers. Forster's slow feet, vulnerability to low shots, and reluctance to dominate the box aerially, and McCarthy's piss poor communication and distribution. This weakness in goalkeeping coaching is either going to cost us a lot of goals or a lot of money. Right now we're settling for the goals.

I didn't see the third goal, but the first was also a communication failure. The ball was going out but there was no call so we headed it out for the needless corner from which they scored.

We seem to really lack leadership and communication at the back. It should come from both the keeper and a CD, but with us it comes from neither, especially when the quiet McCarthy is in goal. I'd trade youth for aging legs and leadership in a heartbeat because I think it will make those around him better than we've seen so far. The Vestergaard replacement is pivotal for our season. My pet peeve with the club is the multi-year inability of the academy to develop a keeper who can challenge the Top 2. Spending big money on a keeper is something clubs like us just can't afford to do, given all the other priorities, which makes the academy failure all the more galling.

15th? Bedwetter.

The thing that made me think it isn't beyond the realms of possibility was when the club described Villa's $25 million offer as "derisory". That's what a club says when it's willing to sell but at a much higher price. If they're not willing to sell they just reject the bid. I think the club has a clear idea of JWP's value, and a plan to replace him if he goes. The excellent Ings fee should lessen the likelihood of JWP going as well, but I don't think that's certain. If Villa "meet our valuation" - and some, JWP could still go. There was a lot of bleating from Villa fans about their lousy set piece delivery in their friendly. If Villa come back with circa $42 million I think he could still go.

I’d be interested to hear from those closer to the action if, as I suspect, communication at the back is an issue. I don’t see a defensive leader back there who could keep awareness and concentration levels up, and that’s a recipe for problems. It’s magnified if the keeper isn’t a strong communicator - and I’m certain that McCarthy isn't. Stephens needs someone like that but I haven’t seen it coming from - and don’t really see it coming from - KWP, Bednarek or Salisu.

If we upgrade on Vestergaard that is not a bottom eight line up. Depth is a work in progress, but Diallo has started to look like more than a fringe player, and Livramento clearly has real quality. And I’m pondering on your idea of solving the Forster/McCarthy dilemma by not playing either of them. 😂

It seems that Chelsea/Tuchel think we’ll have a much better season than some of our fans. They wouldn’t be throwing talented youngsters like this into a confidence killing shitshow.

For me it’s a season in which Bednarek can become a decent CB, but the key is confidence. Most of last year it was undermined by things going on around him - losing Romeu, always having to defer to Stephens (who would carry the ball for 20 yards before giving it away), covering Vest’s brain farts, losing KWP and being asked to mark Saint-Maximin, the debacle at Old Trafford, and so on. He looks much more assured with Poland. I think there’s a much better player in there, and we have to find a way to bring him out.

What's Phil Boyer doing these days?

So do you seriously think they should have turned down the $30 million for Ings (around $10 million more than anyone was expecting) because we hadn't already agreed a deal for his replacement? How do you know that they (knowing things that we don't know) aren't confident that they can replace him AND upgrade the squad with the Ings (and probably Vestergaard) money? While you are willing to "decide on whether or not the Ings deal was good firstly on 1st September, and then with hindsight at the end of next May", there's a big group on here who have already made their decision. That's what I find frustrating.

The lack of balance in all this criticism of the club is ridiculous. I don’t think Villa were particularly gung-ho for Ings – that’s why it took everyone by surprise. They needed some appeasement for their fans because they were about to sell Grealish, so they chose a very good player and were willing to pay far more than anyone was expecting. In return for the extra cash we completed the transfer even though we were still jostling with a bunch of other clubs for Ings’ replacement. I think the club did the right thing, even though it has put us under a lot of pressure. Vestergaard is very different. We’re in the timeline driver’s seat on that one – whether it’s Leicester or Spurs after him. Sure, the club deserves some criticism, but I think they’re doing their best to stretch scarce resources across a number of problem areas.

Assuming that we get a decent striker in, this - for me - is the key buy of the window. The lack of cover for Romeu was a major factor behind our failure to arrest the New Year slide. The lack of his bite in front of the CDs really exposed their weaknesses. Vestergaard has to be adequately replaced or else it's scary reliance on Stephens and Bednarek, along with the promising Salisu. It's an unconventional profile and Ralph mentioned it some time back, so I'd be surprised if they don't have some "under the radar" names in mind. If they get this right it could be a major upgrade.

We have four decent-ish CDs and cover at RWB that we didn't have last year. We have a LWB who already seems to be about four times as engaged as Bertrand was last year - that's not a "like for like" to me. The strength at Wing Back is key - it makes us better going forward, and it makes us better defensively and gives us various options at the back. I think our CDs will be less exposed when we're under pressure. Having strong wing backs on both sides, not just one, changes a lot of things for the better. The caveats remain, but so does the potential for nice young surprises - like Livramento. Twelfth might be pushing it but I certainly don't see us below fourteenth.

I think we'll finish above all the promoted teams, as well as Brighton, Wolves, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace. And I'm not convinced that Leeds and West Ham will be anywhere near as good as they were last year. We’ve improved because we have multiple defensive permutations that we didn’t have last year, and wing backs on both sides who will be pivotal to an effective attacking style. The caveats? Ballsing up the Ings replacement, losing and not replacing Vestergaard, and another injury to Romeu. But there could also be some nice, young surprises. A bit rose-tinted? Sure, but there's not much point following footy with a negative mindset.

Based on the entirely reasonable assumption that Semmens and Crocker have a better idea of what's best for the club than the people on this forum, and the fact that we've added some depth were we suicidally lacked it last year (with more to come), I'll go with a fairly comfortable 12th.

Perhaps the most damning indictment of our academy - and especially the goalkeeper coaches - is the fact that we've been unable to develop a youngster to challenge Forster and McCarthy. This is basic position-specific coaching, not rocket science.

Perrault needed a call to let the cross go out, and it should have come from McCarthy, but communication is not his strong suit.

I think you’re right but I’d be okay with it if it happened. We’ll see, but I get the impression that there’s a broader plan at work - not the lose a key player/panic buy approach of recent years. I’m sure the Ings replacement is incoming (probably Armstrong). And if JWP goes, his will be too - as well as some more depth.

I’m okay with this. It’s not just that Ings only had a year left on his contract. It’s that his durability isn’t good enough for the heavy demands that Ralph’s style places on his strikers. I think we’ll end up actually looking better up front, all things considered, and I have more confidence that we’ll use the money wisely this time. If JWP goes as well we lose a reliable workhorse who scores deadball goals but doesn’t contribute much creatively. He’s certainly replaceable, too. This could be a quick and effective rebuild.

That's my concern. Granted, there are some top strikers in-play this window, and there's some waiting going on, but the fact that we've (supposedly) had no enquiries for Ings makes me wonder if we're over-valuing him (for a club of our size) with the contract offer. And a year or two hence this forum will be talking about him in the same terms as others we've over-committed to contract-wise. But in his case it's less about talent level or the risk of lost form, and more about durability. We can't afford any more contract clangers that haunt us for seasons. I really think our best bet may be to get Armstrong, give him half a season to settle without the pressure of being our "#1 Striker", and let Danny go in January after he's spent that half-season scoring goals, proving his value to the big clubs, and helping us to get points in the bank. Sure it's risky, but we're up to our ying-yangs in risk right now.

Not sure about that verlaine. The January window is known to be really bad for value - AKA a seller's market. In the Summer window pretty much everyone is fit, but in the January window, clubs (especially big clubs with lots of fixtures) are trying to cover for injured players. Huge money is at stake for them. It's not entirely beyond the realms of possibility that Ings could go for more in January than he would now if a really big club is desperate. But my main point is that there may be a way of hedging our bets, so that it's not an "all or nothing" situation. We could get half a season from Ings (and hopefully a lot of safety points) and also have time to get his replacement acclimatized in the club and up to speed with our style.