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Epsom Derby Festival 4/5 June


chrisobee
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Trends for The Oaks:

 

Trends Report: The Investec Oaks (G1)

 

 

 

Key: Ran in last 2 months (13/14), winner at 1 mile+ (14/14), top 2 in pattern race (13/14), SP 12/1 or less (13/14), top 2 last time out (12/14), 2-6 career runs (12/14). Leaves a fairly long short-list: Akdarena, Aviate, Gertrude Bell (assuming she contracts into 12/1 or less), Rumoush (forgiven 7th LTO due to track bias) & Timepiece.

 

 

 

Trim the short-list with questionable stayers - or keep the ones who will definitely stay. Timepiece and Rumoush are probably the most doubtful. Aviate looks a very high quality horse but not especially bred to stay and may just get found out. The final short-list is, Akdarena who will force a strong pace, and Gertrude Bell who should benefit from a searching test and enjoy something to aim at.

 

 

 

Another angle for each way players could be Barry Hills' Champagnelifestyle who is stoutly bred for middle-distances and has reportedly made significant progress since her defeat to the very progressive Gertrude Bell (by 1 length) at Chester.

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2.45 Coronation Cup:

 

Micky Channon runs Youmzain with Kieron Fallon on board. Currently at around 8/1 and Mick seems keen on his chances. Surely deserves a Group 1 success but is being sweet on his chances heart over head ?

 

"He’s in great form and I’m very pleased with him. This has always been the plan. We just need the real Youmzain to turn up."

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Youmzain only ever seems to run well in the Arc. Two very disappointing performances recently.

 

Saw Fame and Glory's last run at the Curragh and very impressive, difficult to see past him.

 

Agree with Hatch for the Oaks.

 

After the disappointment of Cape Blanco withdrawing and my ante-post bet tits up, I am going to back Bullet Train (8/1 Corals) in the Derby.

Edited by bungle
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1.40 The Cheka, 2.10 Deadly Secret, 2.45 Sariska, 3.25 Thin Red Line, 4.05 REMEMBER WHEN, ChampaigneLifestyle e/w 4.50 Yaa Wayl, 5.25 Cansili Star.

 

Also think a bit of value in Snow Fairy and Akdarena in the Oaks.......

 

As per bungle, liking Bullet Train in the Derby

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D'oh, Frankie's bets from the regular thread ;)

 

Epsom.

 

1.40 A cracking race to start the day, Godolphins Alexandros has the proven form at this level, but I cant back anything from that stable at the moment as they are very patchy, Penitent looks to be on the upgrade but I am unsure if he will handle this ground and the Epsom undulations, one horse that should do as he is a lovely balanced type is Mabait, he hacked up on his reappearance then ran a corker in the Coronation Cup, this extra furlong should help and he is my selection, for a bigger price fancy watch the Cheka, he has run in some top class races and could run well again.

 

2.10 A pinstickers delight...my pin has fallen on Vitznau, who goes round Epsom ok and Hannon is still in great form, plus a few quid on Extraterresrial, he has run well in top handicaps this year but struggled at Chester last time out, with Dettori on his back and the Fahey team remaining in good form I expect a big run at a big price.

 

2.45 looks between Fame and Glory and Sariska, with preference to the first mentioned horse, won't be playing at these prices but one that may go well at a big price is the unexposed South Easter.

 

3.25 Thin Red Line was extremely impressive on his first start for Dods, and is definitely one to keep on the right side of while in that form, course form is important here and only one horse has that Victoria Sponge, so Thin Red Line and Victoria sponge for me.

 

4.05 A wide open Oaks this year with nothing standing out massively, Cecils Aviate has done nothing wrong winning his three starts to date, but I really like the look of Sajjhaa, he was massively impressive winning his Sandown maiden and is held in very high regard, lets hope he improves again for his first run and takes this race.

 

5.25 Kajima, seeking a hattrick and likes this course.

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Really looking forward to todays racing at Epsom

 

1.40 Alexandros - looks an absolute picture, nicely drawn today. Fear Cumani / Fallon.

 

2.10 Oceans Minstrel e/w - is 7lb lower from his Epsom success last year, has been out of form lately but has been trying harder than todays race, a return to form cannot be far off. Relatively well drawn, will really fancy him if they decide to make all on him.

 

2.45 Youmzain e/w - looks a fairly safe each way bet, Mick says he his back to his stubborn self which is a good sign. Runs Epsom well.

 

3.25 Thin Red Line - convincing winner at Chester last time out. Don't normally like Chester form but this fella was impressive. Up 7lb, hoping it's not too much.

 

4.05 Sajjahh - so impressive on debut, looked a pro first time up so hopefully inexperience should not count against her. Such a wide open Oaks. I've also backed Gertrude Bell e/w I think the 20/1 is a bit insulting given her record and connections.

 

4.50 Mon Cadeaux - is capable of winning this, expecting to see big improvement from her.

 

Giddy up!

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Might not be around tomorrow. I advised Bullet Train a few weeks ago on the Random fred, I'm sat happy with my 14/1 on this colt. So far all still seems on track for his chances. Big fear is Jan Vermeer, I've stuck him in a treble for the Championship races.

 

Giddy up!

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As ever at these big meetings it's not easy to select anything with real confidence. However, I'll be having small investments on the following, indeed very small investments on the whole !

 

1.40 Mabait @ 7/2 / Harrison George ew @12/1 : Just the 1st race and already at least 2 I like the look of. Mabait looks a classy horse and likely to progress so would be my main bet. At a longer price I like Harrison George who has won two on the bounce and though needs to step up further that isn't beyond the realms of possibilty.

 

2.10 Tartan Gigha ew @ 13/2/Mull of Killough ew @8/1 : When in doubt go for the horse that won last year if running again which of course Tartan Gigha does. I'm hoping he'll have enough to at least finish in the places but runs off a 12lb higher mark than last year so really is a tentative selection in a race where few can be discounted. Mull of Killough ran well in the Lincoln before having no luck in running last time out so a small ew nibble on this one too.

 

2.45 Fame and Glory: Looks highly likely to win this but with it being nigh on impossible to know just how good Sariska is I'm not prepared to back Fame and Glory at odds on.

 

3.25 Tartan Gunna @5/1 : Having gone for Tartan Gigha I might as well go with Tartan Gunna in this one, has run well in defeat in a couple of strong 1¼m handicaps of late, including at the April meeting here, and he looks a solid option having been eased slightly in the weights .

 

4.05 Aviate ew @ 6/1/ Akdarena ew @8/1 : Could back 10 in this race and still not be confident of picking the winner. Aviate looks an obvious pick, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York last month when bursting through late after being cramped for room. Likely to stay and still unexposed. Akdarena looks a different horse now fitted with blinkers so is going to be my 2nd pick.

 

4.50 Mon Cadeaux @ 9/2- It doesn't get any easier but Mon Cadeaux looks open to improvement and gets my tentative nod over Shakesperean.

 

5.25 Kajima @ 9/2 : If my some miracle I have any money left at this point it'll go on Kajima, Very consistent and won last 2 starts.

 

Very best of luck to everyone :D

 

Chris

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Derby Trends

 

The Investec Derby (G1)

 

 

 

Key: Top 6 in the betting (19/20) - note 11 of those came from the top 2 (11/20, 55%). Highest priced winner since 1999 was 7/1. 1st or 2nd LTO (14/14). 1st LTO (12/14). Newmarket or Irish trainer (14/15). Horses prices 16/1 or more have provided just 1 winner from the last 174 runners. Kieron Fallon & Johnny Murtagh are the most successful jockeys (3 each).

 

 

 

The trends eliminate very few and the winner appears likely to come from a short-list of: Bullet Train, Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch, Rewilding & Workforce.

 

 

 

Jan Vermeer looked mightily impressive when wide-margin G1 juvenile winner at Saint-cloud and again on reappearance at The Curragh when a step up to 12fl looked ideal. However this was not the original plan as they are not completely sure he will stay the 12fl and combined with a wide draw combines to make life tricky. He should handle the ground, and is possibly a class apart, but there is a stamina question mark.

 

 

 

Jan Vermeer was miles ahead of Midas Touch when they met, as a winner of the Derrinstown he should stay, although on all other counts he seems unlikely to reverse the form. Frankie has chosen Rewilding, supplemented after Goodwood, who catches the eye. You can look at the form 2 ways - he may have gone much further clear the further he went (Tom Segal thinks 10 lengths clear in another furlong), or the proximity of Prizefighting knocks the form, even if the latter has improved, with good yardstick Simenon 7.5l back in 4th - the same distance he finished behind Chabal.

 

 

 

On a line through Togiak (or for that matter Midas Touch) that puts Rewilding on a par with Bullet Train, or a little behind Midas Touch - or perhaps some way ahead over the long trip. Bullet Train himself is blighted by the proximity of Hot Prospect in the Lingfield Derby trial who was himself a further 3 lengths behind Coordinated Cut when they met 3 weeks before, himself well beaten in the Dante by Workforce.

 

 

 

And with that in mind, the Dante has looked the best British trial and the horse with an excuse in that race was Workforce, who was highly-regarded going into the race but spoiled his chance by slipping the bit after carrying his head awkwardly. Cross noseband applied for today. By all accounts he found the unusually firm ground at York too lively. He’s sharpened up and is expected to go well by connection, but even so this may come too soon.

 

Eye-catchers

 

Eye-catchers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks

 

 

 

Gallant Eagle (IRE), 1.40 Epsom Downs

 

A Barr 23/5/10 - several lengths better than bare result at Goodwood in race not run to suit. Needs a strong pace to aim at or a stiffer test of stamina and of interest when things look more likely to drop his way.

 

 

 

Penny’s Gift (GB), 2.40 Epsom Downs

 

H Taylor 12/5/10 - Raced away from the rail at Lingfield (major disadvantage on the day) and shaped as if needing the run. Travelled nicely into the race and should improve, worth consideration in similar company (up to G3)

 

 

 

Captain Dunne (IRE), 3:15 Epsom Downs

 

H Taylor 5/10 - impressive reappearance, flew home into 2nd after repeatedly hampered/no run. Went well latest at Thirsk. Remains well handicapped on his best form and in good heart.

 

 

 

Jan Vermeer (IRE), 4.00 Epsom Downs

 

A Barr 23/5/10 - most taking G1 winner in France last autumn, good-looking straight forward son of Montjeu, giving 7lbs and a very cosy beating to lesser opposition on reappearance and leaving the impression 12fl will suit really well. Likely to set a very high standard at Epsom.

 

 

 

Workforce (GB), 4:00 Epsom Downs

 

K Pitterson 19/5/10 - attempted an ambitious target at York after 1 prior outing and looked a classy fluid mover with some filling out to do and tons of scope. A potential improver for the 2nd half of the season.

 

 

 

Dubai Crest (GB), 4.45 Epsom Downs

 

A Barr 2/6/10 - creditable 4th at Sandown (denied 3rd by interference), dominated by a pair of well-treated types so the form looks good. 2lbs lower than last winning mark and coming to the boil in good form. Some stamina doubts beyond 10fl.

 

Notable last week on the Newmarket gallops:

 

 

 

All noted working well last week: Azmeel (W Buick), Al Zir (F Dettori), Bullet Train (T Queally) & Bourne

 

 

 

----------------------------------------

 

 

 

A O’Brien, Jan Vermeer "He is a very classy colt and he got 10fl well. We’ve never been certain about him getting 12fl and that is why we considered the Prix Du Jockey Club. But such doubts are always there...the way he travels should give him every chance of getting the distance. He came out of it really well."

 

 

 

A O’Brien, Midas Touch "The way he won the Derrinstown it looked as if he wouldn’t mind stepping up. It was a truly run race and he came through well to win. He’s in good form."

 

 

 

Henry Cecil, Bullet Train "Bullet Train is in very good form and I couldn’t be happier with him. I’m sure he’ll run really well. I can’t say he’s going to win, he’ll get the trip and he’s an improving horse. He’s very tough and will act on the course, I think the race is reasonably open and he deserves to take his chance."

 

 

 

Sir M Stout, Workforce "He has plenty of talent and has come forward since the Dante. He is really well in himself and that experience will have pulled him together quite a bit. Temperament-wise he is going to be solid. We think there is still a great deal of improvement and he is going to be exciting."

 

 

 

M Al Zarooni, Rewilding "He looks a nice horse at home, but the way he won at Goodwood surprised me. I am hoping he can improve on the run. I don’t think the atmosphere will be a problem, he is quiet and very professional."

 

 

 

John Gosden, Azmeel "He needed his first run. He learned a lot from that and mentally it has brought him on a great deal. I think he will stay and he has come up to the race right. He stacks up with a lot of the other horses"

 

 

 

Michael Bell, Coordinated Cut "Everything has gone silky-smooth since the Dante. I think I have got him right fitness-wise. I think I was a bit easy on him before the Dante in hindsight. There is a chance he can reverse the form with the Stout horse."

 

 

 

Jim Goldie, Hawkeyethenoo "He has got a good draw (14), is in good form, has a good jockey, and a good chance. I’m very hopeful."

 

 

 

S Bin Suroor, Antara "has been working well but will improve on whatever she does here."

 

 

 

Alain de Royer-Dupre, Reggane "She’s coming back to form and I wasn’t disappointed with her at Lingfield. The ground should suit her well, but the question is how she’ll go at Epsom."

 

 

 

Gerard Butler, Patchattack "I’m very pleased with her. She’s been training very nicely since York and I’m pleased we’ve got Ryan Moore back on her. I expect a big run."

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Well done Old man. I'm off to Epsom today after making around £800 profit this week, the irish placepots have served me well.

 

I will be following the money as I haven't got any fancys except Hawkeyethenoo who is a course and dstance winner which is ery important at epsom and I like the name.

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1.40 Verdant@5/2 : Sir Michael Stoute has made this race his own over the last few years, taking it with the likes of subsequent Breeders’ Cup Turf and King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes hero Conduit. Although Verdant ran a shade flat on his latest start at Newbury he is far better than that, as he showed when working with plenty of zest with the yard’s Derby hope Workforce at Lingfield.

2.10 - For me a race I'm going to swerve completely as I have absolutely no idea where to begin to unravel this race! If I had my arm twisted I'm plump rather arbitrarily for Premier Clarets at a decent price.

2.40 Reggane @9/4 Mainly good efforts in Group company since winning debut over 1m in May 2009, including second in Coronation Stakes. Didn't impress over 7f on return, but I think has every chance if back on song here.

3.15 - Epsom - Indian Trail - e/w. @ 9/1./ City Dancer ew @16/1: Indian Trail won this last year and should make a bold bid to follow up given reasonable luck in running. City Dancer looks appealing at 16/1, has generally run well without winning but a switch to the Dandy Nichols yard may well be a big positive. Fathom Five is another which looks to have a decent chance.

4.00- Rewilding @ 6/1/Bullet Train @ 15/2. Rewilding is definitely my main pick in this race, superbly-bred colt, runner-up in Group 2 in April for Andre Fabre. Impressed in Goodwood listed race on debut for new yard recently, travelling strongly, and will relish this stiffer test. Though Jan Vermeer is an obvious danger I think Bullet Train could pose the main threat. He won on his only start as a juvenile and has progressed as anticipated this term, notably when dominating Lingfield Derby Trial a month ago, finding plenty. Clearly this is a much tougher race tougher but Bullet Train still remains pretty unexposed.

4.45- Coin of The Realm @ 7/2 : In his element over this C&D, capturing this prize last year and posting career-best effort when pulverising rivals on reappearance. Needs to shoulder a 12 lb penalty which makes life hard but still the one for me.

5.20 Parisian Pyramid @ 8/1/ Something @ 12/1. Of course the meeting would end with a nigh on impossible 6 furlong sprint. Parisian Pyramid took advantage of drop in the weights to land 6f Goodwood handicap a fortnight ago. 3 lb rise should still leave him competitive and he ran well at this meeting 12 months ago. Something may have been waiting for this opportunity after having a luckless run in this race last year. Could be there or thereabouts if getting more luck in running.

 

Good luck all, have a good day kipper.

 

Chris

Edited by chrisobee
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As ever at these big meetings it's not easy to select anything with real confidence. However, I'll be having small investments on the following, indeed very small investments on the whole !

 

1.40 Mabait @ 7/2 / Harrison George ew @12/1 : Just the 1st race and already at least 2 I like the look of. Mabait looks a classy horse and likely to progress so would be my main bet. At a longer price I like Harrison George who has won two on the bounce and though needs to step up further that isn't beyond the realms of possibilty.

 

2.10 Tartan Gigha ew @ 13/2/Mull of Killough ew @8/1 : When in doubt go for the horse that won last year if running again which of course Tartan Gigha does. I'm hoping he'll have enough to at least finish in the places but runs off a 12lb higher mark than last year so really is a tentative selection in a race where few can be discounted. Mull of Killough ran well in the Lincoln before having no luck in running last time out so a small ew nibble on this one too.

 

2.45 Fame and Glory: Looks highly likely to win this but with it being nigh on impossible to know just how good Sariska is I'm not prepared to back Fame and Glory at odds on.

 

3.25 Tartan Gunna @5/1 : Having gone for Tartan Gigha I might as well go with Tartan Gunna in this one, has run well in defeat in a couple of strong 1¼m handicaps of late, including at the April meeting here, and he looks a solid option having been eased slightly in the weights .

 

4.05 Aviate ew @ 6/1/ Akdarena ew @8/1 : Could back 10 in this race and still not be confident of picking the winner. Aviate looks an obvious pick, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York last month when bursting through late after being cramped for room. Likely to stay and still unexposed. Akdarena looks a different horse now fitted with blinkers so is going to be my 2nd pick.

 

4.50 Mon Cadeaux @ 9/2- It doesn't get any easier but Mon Cadeaux looks open to improvement and gets my tentative nod over Shakesperean.

 

5.25 Kajima @ 9/2 : If my some miracle I have any money left at this point it'll go on Kajima, Very consistent and won last 2 starts.

 

Very best of luck to everyone :D

 

Chris

 

Thank heaven for Tartan Gigha who won nicely at 6/1. Fame and Glory was an impressive winner as expected. In terms of the usual nightmare results at these big meetings not that bad, Mabait, Mon Cadeaux and Kajima all contrived to finish 3rd, all at 100/30. What were the odds of that !?

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Right on to todays selections.....no write up i'm afraid too hungover to think of reasons :-)

 

1.40 Dandino

 

2.10 High Award

 

2.40 Penny's Gift

 

3.15 Captain Dunne

 

4.00 Workforce

 

4.45 Fortuni

 

5.20 Flipando

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

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Right on to todays selections.....no write up i'm afraid too hungover to think of reasons :-)

 

1.40 Dandino Won - 15/2

 

2.10 High Award Won 7/1

 

2.40 Penny's Gift Last

 

3.15 Captain Dunne Nowhere

 

4.00 Workforce Won 6/1

 

4.45 Fortuni

 

5.20 Flipando

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Off out so not sure how the last two have got on, but all in all, a bloody good day for Frankie today

 

Frankie

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Right on to todays selections.....no write up i'm afraid too hungover to think of reasons :-)

 

1.40 Dandino - Won 15/2

 

2.10 High Award - Won 7/1

 

2.40 Penny's Gift Nowhere

 

3.15 Captain Dunne Nowhere

 

4.00 Workforce - Won 6/1

 

4.45 Fortuni - Won 9/1

 

5.20 Flipando - Won 9/1

 

 

Frankie

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Sorry guys but i'm bloody amazed with that....

 

Frankie

Edited by frankie
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