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Must win games for the rest of the season


SaintDonkey
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A few people have said that Cardiff is a 'must win' game. With them riding high in the table and third placed on current form I don't think that's a realistic expectation. However it's got me thinking - what are the 'must win' games?

 

For me they are the home games against Charlton, Palace and Burnley plus the away games at Watford and Forest and one of Derby or QPR at home. I think they're all 'realistic' although I though Derby and QPR will both be tough.

 

Problem that would only get us to 49 points, not enough to avoid relegation last year, although it was enough for Hull the year before and QPR the year before (they actually had 50 but were 4 points clear). 51 was needed the year before or rather 50 with a decent goal difference and 51 with a decent goal difference the year before.

 

So I make the survival target 52 which will need another win or avoiding defeat against QPR/Derby at home, plus Wolves and Sheffield Wednesday away. Or of course Cardiff at home :)

 

Bugger me it's really scary looking at it like that, hopefully other teams will slip up and give us a hand!

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agreed starting with cardiff unfortunately we can't afford anything less than a win

 

What we can afford depends on the results of the other relegation strugglers. If they all lose the majority of their games,then draws will look good for us .

We need more points than everybody else, how many is subjective.

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The way I look at it, we need to get around 12-20 points from our next 12, which is do-able.

 

Ipswich Draw

Birmingham Lose

Derby Win

QPR Draw

Blackpool Draw

Charlton Win

Watford Win

Wolves Lose

Palace Draw

Sheffield Wed Draw

Burnley Lose

Nott Forest Win

 

I think that's pretty do-able, Birmingham and Wolves will be tough teams to beat because they've both got very strong sides. We'll probably lose to one of the lower down in form teams like Derby, Blackpool or Sheffield Wednesay though. Those 17 points that i've put up there would probably be enough to get us to safety if the teams around us don't start seriously chalking up points too..

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Well we just don't know do we?

 

Statistically, but also very improbably, we might only need 3 more points and a string of very lucky losses by Charlton, Forest and Norwich. But I wouldn't bet on that so its basically every point we can get. I guess Blackpool, Charlton, Watford and Forest are the real big ones.

 

Cardiff are a better team than Preston and another Saints win would be a huge psychological boost - but it is possible... I think

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A few people have said that Cardiff is a 'must win' game. With them riding high in the table and third placed on current form I don't think that's a realistic expectation. However it's got me thinking - what are the 'must win' games?

 

For me they are the home games against Charlton, Palace and Burnley plus the away games at Watford and Forest and one of Derby or QPR at home. I think they're all 'realistic' although I though Derby and QPR will both be tough.

 

Problem that would only get us to 49 points, not enough to avoid relegation last year, although it was enough for Hull the year before and QPR the year before (they actually had 50 but were 4 points clear). 51 was needed the year before or rather 50 with a decent goal difference and 51 with a decent goal difference the year before.

 

So I make the survival target 52 which will need another win or avoiding defeat against QPR/Derby at home, plus Wolves and Sheffield Wednesday away. Or of course Cardiff at home :)

 

Bugger me it's really scary looking at it like that, hopefully other teams will slip up and give us a hand!

 

Firstly i think the survival target will be about 49pts. In years when 1 or 2 teams are relegated very early on poor points total, the points to survive the 3rd relegation spot is high as last year. However in years when the battle is closer the points total drops accordingly. Remember there was quite a bit of analysis done on this in the past and unlike last year at least two relegation spots will be undecided going into the last game so again I think another 5 wins and 3 draws should be enough.

 

5 wins are achievable from: Blackpool (a), Charlton (h), Watford (a), Palace (h), Sheff Wed (a), Forest (a)

 

3 draws or even the odd unexpected win from: Ipswich (a), Derby (h), QPR (h), Burnley (h).

 

Very difficult games most likely to come away with nothing but draws not impossible: Cardiff (h), Birmingham (a), Wolves (a)

 

The most important thing is that in defeat the team show the same determination as they have recently and the fans show some patience as the biggest chances for those 5 wins come in our last 7 games. The players and manager can't afford to give in and we can't afford to give up. 18 pts from a possible 39 plus Birmingham are wobbling and we could nick a point at St Andrews and we could easily earn victories against Ipswich, Derby or QPR so not inconceiveable we could win 22 - 24pts and finish on 55.

 

Approach every game as a must win and play with that mind set but the best opportunities won't come until after Birmingham. I'm sure that is what Pedant Saint mean't with his everygame is a must win, comment.

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