VectisSaint

Apart from your maths not being very good I don't know what you have missed (61/44 is 1.38) other than the point. But then you always say stats are not your thing 😉 If you check my post you will see it adds up to 61 goals against in 44 games. Where you might be struggling is that I did not include games before Downes joined at start of season (though I did mention it). Downes joined on 21 August, by which time we had already played Sheffield Wed, Norwich and Argyle, it seems unfair to me to include games that Downes wasn't available for in calculations, although if I had it would have made the case stronger as we conceded 2 per game on average during those games.

Flynn Downes has played in 31 games this season when we have conceded 34 goals (excludes Huddersfield where we won 5-3 all goals scored after Downes injured), that is an average of 1.1 goals conceded per game (and bear in mind that includes Sunderland and Ipswich at the start of the season just after he joined). We have played 11 games without Downes (after he joined) (including Huddersfield) and conceded 21 goals in those games average 1.9 per game (we also conceded 6 in the first 3 games of the season before Downes signed). Almost double average. There is a reason why we have conceded goals and lost games, and it is not (much) to do with the defence or for that matter the keeper.

or even two of them

Well that's an interesting comment. We haven't had a settled side all season oh apart from 25 games. Oddly when we went 25 unbeaten we didn't have that settled a side. Manning/Bree and the reintroduction of Stephens half way through. The important thing was during that 25 game sequence is that Downes played most. When he got injured in the 25th game we went to pieces and haven't recovered consistently since. Now we have lost Stu and Baz as well we are scuppered because our supposedly strong squad is not as strong as people would like us to believe, we have a strong 1st XI but not a strong squad.

No Downes, no win.

Embarrassing.

The 3 teams that go up this year are far better than the 3 last year. Burnley looked good last year but once they lost their loanees and failed to invest they were shown to be very poor. I'm sure Leicester (if they don't get a points deduction) and Leeds at least will be safe mid table next season. Ipswich might struggle but their team spirit might get them through. We would struggle for the same reason as Burnley. WBA/Norwich would be straight back down, but then that is WBA's modus operandi.

Thought Stu had let his run down because he was retiring from football to pursue a legal career, may have been just a rumour of course.

Moyes perhaps, but wait long enough and another manager will come along. In Moyes case that won't be too long. It will take a great deal to prise Downes from his beloved West Ham.

he missed most of the game v Huddersfield (subbed after 24 minutes, injury), we were 0-0 when he went off, we then went 3-1 down, but did remarkably pull it back and won 5-3. That was the start of our slump after the unbeaten run, I know we won it but conceded 3 goals soon after he went off. Downes is pivotal, and we don't have anyone who can replace him like-for-like, we have players that can play DM but need a different system to be effective. Shea Charles is the closest we have, but he was terrible early season, lost confidence and lost Martin's confidence, hence has hardly played since. He does have the makings of a very good player though, as I have always said (when he was getting abuse on here early season).

Just feel I need to say that all of the reasons that people come up with as to why we lost yesterday and why we keep throwing away leads are missing the point. Stephens shoehorning, Smallbone's shoehorning, Bazunu's inability to make saves, Mannings defensive woes, unable to hang on to a lead, don't score enough, concede too many, Martin can't manage subs etc etc. All have some merit, but in the end what has cost us this season is our inability to win games when Flynn Downes is not available. His injury near the start of the Huddersfield game (which we won but only after being 3-1 down) opened up the defence and made us really easy to score against. Unfortunately and this is not a criticism of Smallbone or Charles, we do not have a player who can match Downes' ability and influence in DM. We've had this before, like when we lost Romeu. It is a luxury to have 2 top class DMs but when one is so outstanding and is lost to injury it is a big problem. Unfortunately Downes is somewhat injury/illness prone as we have found to our cost, Smallbone, Charles, Rothwell are all decent midfielders and have other attributes but they cannot do the Downes job, especially when we play 4-3-3 as yesterday. OK, perhaps some blame on Martin for not recognising this and setting us up differently but to be honest yesterday at least we were so dominant first half and should have scored 4 or 5 by half-time if out forwards had not been so profligate (and a little nod to their keeper) you could see his thinking. Trouble is no team can keep that dominance up for 100 minutes. Don't know where we will go next season when Downes returns to his beloved West Ham.

Think we're going to need a lot more than that. About 9 players I would think.

Given he is supposedly retiring at end of season it would be career-ending.

Not sure if you are joking. Their best player (Ng) out for the season, 12 or more injured or ill, maybe up to 5 from the u21s to fill the squad according to their manager. I think it is safe to say they will no be putting out a full strength team, but probably not as bad as they are making out.

Experience in a difficult situation. That is all. I think Martin made a good decision. Lumley will be OK when he has prepared to play from the start. Will be interesting to see what Martin does tomorrow, McCarthy got a clean sheet (admittedly with very little to actually do) so might feel aggrieved to be dropped, but if he hadn't done that I feel pretty sure that Lumley would be selected to start.