The9

Yeah, I know. Especially when they're all playing each other. That's why our odds of survival actually improved despite losing to Spurs, the sides around us also mostly dropped points from playing relegation rivals, reducing the overall total Saints' rivals could reach, in matches they were expected to get more points from. For every team on a streak escaping the pack there was one being left behind below us. Couldn't be illustrated any better than the final day of the season with Wigan v Villa, if we can get above Villa following their unexpected hot streak of beating crappy sides, of course.

Trouble with it is it IS a bit old, all that false 9 and 4-6-0 stuff makes it tricky to even judge a central striker in a 4-5-1 (or derivative) on purely goals, as it's goals for the team overall is what matters (an adage I frequently adhered to as a player by deciding the best option for the team was usually for me to try and score - which to be fair used to be true at some levels ). Comes back to the "does building a system around a player inhibit the team's ability when that player isn't there / the system isn't working against the opposing system / what if there's a better system with different squad personnel" argument.

Yet you've provided an example in which there are eight examples of teams making up 6 points or more difference on other teams. Again, fundamentally you're talking sense, you're just not using good examples.

I'm unable to reply to this as any comment that Maloney plays a different role and is often away from attacking positions will only get misinterpreted by the usuals.

Fair point, but I'm sure he has plenty of influence in whether the Liebherr family continues to want to be involved. Best case scenario for us is if the club is viewed as Markus' legacy of altruism, maybe then the policies will improve from a fan perspective.

That's super, if we want to be in the bottom half, right ?

I was going to say "exactly", but actually the stats suggest his passing was significantly worse than usual.

Though strangely almost everyone on this thread is agreeing with my appraisal of him all season long, which hasn't changed. I tend to use actual facts, and rational questioning to present a coherent argument based on my interpretation of the evidence before me : as opposed to just calling someone "clueless" and dismissing all arguments they might ever have on a subject. It's quite a sad indictment of your lack of capacity to present a coherent argument yourself that you just throw around insults instead. I may as well have just spent the past 2 months actually slagging him off rather than constantly posting neutral opinions of how it could be the system or tactical failings elsewhere rather than mentioning his abilities, seeing as some people have already decided I hate him (I don't), I've always thought he was rubbish (I don't even think he's rubbish now) and that because he does some good stuff sometimes, everything he ever does in a Saints shirt is going to be wonderful (it isn't). I'm actually going to completely stop posting about him now, because the couple of months of just talking around the subject hasn't even been noticed, and I still get the same old crap from the same polar opposite views irrespective of what I actually say.

Yes.

Given the relative percentages, that still makes us more neurotic.

Stoke would only have to lose a couple by 3 and Wigan win a couple by 3, a 13 goal swing isn't impossible given that the results required necessitate a minimum 4 goal swing to start with. We are of course talking about Wigan beating Arsenal here to begin with. But either way they'll know by the time they play us what they need to do, and odds are they'll be comfortable by then. In realistic terms there's a bloody great cliff and then it's down to the 38s of Sunderland, Newcastle, Norwich... and then Wigan.

Don't worry, you can also be wrong about 10 of the other 18 results you needed for our worst case scenario, leaving us comfortably safe, etc.

Interesting piece of maths. I refrained from using those kind of comparisons because unlike the probability they're utterly misleading. Except on the threads with people using REALLY stupid examples. But everyone wants to be a drama queen...

McManaman and Maloney look decent.

Wigan win, Saints move to 97.4% safe. Draw, Saints move to 99.0% safe Swansea win, Saints move to 99.6% safe. Let's all go mental over being 2% more massively safe.

Based on the time it took to leave the car park and drive back towards the station at the DW earlier in the season, I can see their point.

Possibly for an injury, but there have been subs sent off without even getting on the pitch before, and one I vaguely recall who got sent off whilst running on for something he said to the ref.

You haven't been paying attention, Man City had a match over the 100 minute mark earlier in the season. Even Watford's game on the weekend in the Championship had 16 minutes of first half injury time. Link : http://edition.cnn.com/2012/10/27/sport/football/manchester-city-tevez-arsenal-football

Well let's be honest, only one side is playing to win, it's going to be 9 mins of them attacking til the end. They're struggling for a side for the cup final now !

Just The9 minutes.

Swansea win record With Vorm in goal W6 D 10 L 10 With Tremmel W10 D5 L3.

He's played half the season (the half when they were in the top half winning regularly), Vorm's been injured plenty already this year.

The late Wigan rally to win 4-3 is as inevitable as it is statistically insignificant.

He's crap, been watching him for years for Swansea and Wales, prone to awful clangers and only highly rated this season because he's got more defensive blocks and he tries to pass. Just for context, Claus Lundekvam led the Premier League in blocked shots one season, and I rate Yoshida more highly (and his passing is fairly suspect at times too).

6% chance of Saints coming 9th with 2 wins.