gio1saints

Thanks for posting the research @Barsiem. Very helpful to give that context. MY POV is that I think that what LCFC and Ipswich have done for half a season is amazing. However I think it’s statistically likely that one or both will not perform to that exceptional level in the second half of season. If Saints end up with 92/93 points and don't get automatic I’d be shocked. I can see us collecting 30 points remaining unbeaten at home rest of season (having already played LCFC, Ipswich and Leeds ) and can also see us taking points from those in our away fixtures too. On the road apart from those three we probably start favourites to win also. It’s not over til it’s over.

It was boringly predictable football especially first 40 minutes - BUT we seem to DOMINATE with it. If you don’t like the style don't watch basically. I am getting quite used to Saints being able to do whatever they like wherever on the pitch after years of the opposite. The Northam think so to “ we’re taking the piss” rang out a few times as we watched Blackburn players doing endless doggies chasing our play all over the match. Relevant for me was the results Coventry and Watford had. Put our away draws in which we dominated both in- form teams all over the pitch but failed to win into a little better context. Stu had a superior match, Sam and Bree justified return ms to starting, Mara finally got his goal and Charlie earned a pardon for that penalty fuck up with his goal also. Jack was like a strong new CB who did not miss a beat. Could not have worked out better frankly for getting the squad players interested and involved again! And credit to RM for making those calls. He’ even got a nice song today ( wham last Christmas….🎹 This year, to save us from tears we got our Russell Martin” which showed some good Northam initiative!

Frankly any win will suffice but something like 2-1 most probable result. I’d like to think we would start scoring more of our chances at some point and that this could be the day for a goal fest - but form suggests otherwise. We live in hope however! Having said that I don’t believe AA is shooting over the bar again like the other day twice in one match so AA anytime goalscorer will be my nap match bet! COYS NB he’s 6/5 anytime and 4/1 first,4/1 last goalscorer.. I think 6/5 is about right as he scores in c 50 % of our games but 4/1 first goal scorer does feel more of a flutter for Christmas and might be worth my tenner., 😇

Very very risky letting KWP go in this window. Easily Our best player. A proven goal scorer. Has dominated every left sided player he’s played against this season. Obviously an EPL player and arguably England class. There’s no equivalency in losing KWP and bringing in anyone else because right backs like him are absolutely diamonds. Bringing in Ings as some kind of sweetener is a sick joke. Ings can come - but KWP is untouchable this season. Saints Tifosi will be organising riots if that happens. I’m there if so. Need a massive banner : KWP E INTOCCABILE! nb . The tifosi don’t take this kind of shit well in Italy. Selling the Crown Jewels player is regarded as treachery and there’s delegations at the training ground, stadium wide instruction to silence and back turning and all sorts of banners and graffiti around stadium decrying the matter. SR should be under no illusions that they can do this with impunity. Don’t even think about it SR! By all means make a decision when he is in final year - but not here not now.

On topic of Mannings performance: Left back does seem our least strong area. I think if we start with a left winger versus Blackburn it will be Bree at LB not Manning.If Sam starts for instance I expect Bree to start also. IMO manning is considered (reputationally) to be the better attacking left back of the two, particularly when we have no left winger. Defensively Bree has looked a safer pair of hands. I think we are lucky that we have two decent options at LB ( caveat: for this level ) both would likely start in most bottom 14 championship teams in this league, I think. Interesting that one of last years championship top left backs ( Burnley’s Maatsen ) seems likely to be unloaded by Chelsea it seems. Doubt we could afford him or his wages unfortunately though as he is certainly a talent and a high end left back could make a massive difference - that and/or more goal productive forwards/ wingers.

Excellent summary @gecko. I applaud your bravery. I agree that failure to score from our possession and chances created is what’s missing. I disagree with those that say that our boring predictable possession dominance is why we do not score chances and hence not winning and in top two. They are non sequitur. So many arguments on here arise because posters confuse “ “possession-football” with “failure to score from chances created”. If you’re going to be upset with Saints RM whatever at least do it for the more legitimate reason - because the current style of play is creating more than enough chances for us to be in the top two yet we consistently fail to hit the back of the net. Moan about that - not the seemingly working very efficiently possession inspired conveyor belt that is delivering xyz chances to our misfiring forwards every match. It’s NOT the so called boring predictable crab football that is the problem. We simply are not finishing enough of the chances it creates. And yet 13 unbeaten. Go figure how bad must we be…

So so many upset saying Saints are boring predictable and worst of all - being unbeaten! Damn Martin and his boring predictable unbeaten football! My view is I will take boring predictable unbeaten 13 matches in a row 100/100 times thank you very much. I’m not used to seeing saints do this - only in my dreams do we go unbeaten every week. We Draw when we play bad, we win when we play ok and we’ve not even hit top gear and our attackers apart from AA cannot score. God knows if we could actually score and these missed shots went in where we’d be!! Yet it’s not good enough apparently. There’s even an argument if only we could lose and get “galvanised” - didn’t we have enough of being “galvanised” every week last season??? I would rather be Saints this season than the other teams (bar a couple) who have spent most of their matches against us with a deep back line playing anti-football hoping for breakaways and set pieces. A 13 match run in which we have often not played our best yet remain unbeaten is a bloody good sign of things to come. Used to be a sign of a good team. Here, and this bemuses me, it’s a badge of shame - for some.

Eight shots so far in 35 mins. Be fair.

In the net for saints…disallowed. We are being aggressive and attacking . AA just cut in and had shot saved.

Keep scrolling right to the bottom. It’s there alright on NOW.

We can only dream that our passing style is reminiscent of Man City’s - the best team in England last five years and current best in Europe. It took Pep Guardiola, billions of Arabian pounds and six years to get to their current footballing dominance. If Saints are even close to replicating elements of that style without the billions and without Pep and measuring progress after 5 months not 5 years we can count ourselves as doing very well. The unbeaten run IS relevant. It shows that there is some kind of core resilience and aversion to defeat going on that’s starting to become innate. Let’s face it- last season we often played like a team of plucky losers. Not this year. I don’t care for comparison to amazing out -performers Ipswich and Leicester City - good luck to them - but they are not my team. If it seems Saints are becoming incredibly hard to beat week in week out - regardless of opponent - instead of pushovers once first goal goes in- well that’s what I call good progress. If it’s enough to get out of this league we shall see, but being incredibly hard to defeat is definitely a good first step after years of NOT being hard to beat.

I think we can do it. Sure it looks tough and improbable from where we are now but I’m not giving up hope that automatic promotion is possible and hope neither do our supporters and players. Our away support is magnificent and really helping the team on tough trips. If our home support can keep to that level ( and not give up depressed because it’s impossible we’re doomed to fail etc) then SMS can be our fortress ( for , like, the first time ever.) Despite the gloominess I think there are MANY positives about SFC. Years of being EPL whipping boys gradually starting to fade and a tiny little bit of self confidence in ourselves club players and support starting to re-emerge. Long may that continue! COYS😇

Chelsea have spent half a billion and are still rubbish. By that measure how much would Saints have to spend if we went up?🥺 How much do you want your match ticket or ST renewal to be a better question imo. The teams that essentially “spend” the most dominate the league. Occasionally outliers can disrupt that monopoly- but not consistently. I’d prefer Saints not bankrupt itself trying to keep up with Arabian financed clubs. It’s not a level Playing field and never will be - not even with wage caps and draft picks US style. Unlike me to be pessimistic but probably the Best chance Saints will have of being English champions is in ten years time when the European super league has begun and all the best players already play in Saudi…

Fucking nonentity cunt austsaint. Try saying that to my face in person you spineless piece of cyber warrior shit.

I’m not travelling to Watford but am just about to collect my wife from LHR after trip to Serbia using M3 so will report if it’s a travel mess. Good luck and safe driving all Saints fans! Score prediction: 1-3 Saints COYS!😇

At age 60 I think I just got called got called a nerd! 😂😂😂😅 I’m still surprised when posters start attacking the man rather than the argument. In logic talk it’s called an ad hominem attack. Stats have a place in the game, I’m not a massive fan of them and the way tech has overwhelmed footie - you only have to read what I wrote to see that ( but I forgot most cant be bothered with that) but it is what it is. Ergo: I must be a spreadsheet loving nerd. 😳 Ion : Trying to have a somewhat intelligent conversation on here sometimes is like stabbing oneself in the eye. It’s really not a good idea. But I know there are some - a quiet minority or majority who knows- that appreciate a more informed and nuanced discussion than just the usual “ Manning is shit” or “ legohead is a prick” kind of conversation taken as not out of the norm only a few weeks back. Ah well.

Im not sure what you mean by “unreliable” -most of the data is readily accessible on the internet and comprises simple (as much as possible) objective measurements. Such as : How many forward passes did Saints attempt, how many were successful. That kind of thing. It’s not really a question of reliability unless the tracker and the analyst is bias or asleep during the match. How people - especially coaches, managers and players and now TV USE this mine of new hitherto unknown information is a different subject altogether. I think thats probably where most people’s antipathy probably lies ( dare I say VAR?) rather than in the tech itself. Incidentally if you ( like me) fondly recall days of yore before Expected goals and so on became the norm, measurements have always been involved- Even MLT had to step on a weighing scale you know. 😂

I think I know where you are coming from as this does sound rather like some modern football trends are not to your liking. A lot of people would agree with that including myself. Much of modern football makes me sick. I really really hate it. I am surprised though that you found the facts that contextualise what the OP said on our goalscoring ability bothersome. It was just ( I had hoped) helpful info to the original point Football analytics have always been around. And I do not and would not ever claim they are the be all and end all of a game either. Players are not computer programmes basically, thank goodness! However the kind of stats that you find bothersome CAN be helpful - and are just one way, of many, to assess a match or performance. You certainly must be aware Saints measure the heart rates of their players or km covered, top speed, position taken up on the pitch etc as a guide to their fitness/recovery/ability? They wear sophisticated GPS type trackers constantly And what’s more the date generated significantly informs the starting 11 every week as much - if not more than sometimes - RM saying “ I fancy James Bree this week at LB”. If we want football to stop measuring stuff I think it’s too late.

It is a concern but in a nutshell its why we bought RS. One can only surmise what the figure might have been if he had actually played any matches to date but the intention was clear - he was recruited to rectify the problem. Despite AA over performing to an extent this season I think that ( aside from learning russball) the relative absence of goals from our other more forward type players ( CA, KS and Charlie in particular) has been a key factor. A good number of chances are being created but not enough are going in, as you point out. Hopefully that will change. Or AA will have to start scoring two or three every match!😇

According to OPTA we are 4th for SCA ( Shot Creating Actions) per 90 minutes with c 27.5, that’s after 19 matches. Top are Ipswich with c 30 then Sunderland and Leeds. We are ahead of LCFC on this metric. I personally think we are good enough to be top of this metric in this league but, and this is just a guess, we’ve taken time to “ learn” the russball system and this is reflected in our current placing. Earlier in season our build up play was collectively much slower and less SCA helpful as was our midfield passing. These obviously all contribute to the SCA scoring. We have been able to go through the gears a bit faster of late though so I suspect for the last half of the season we will be ( much, hopefully!) higher than 4th for instance.

A lot of people pouring cold water on any thoughts that AA may be able to bring this current form, playing in this current team style, into the EPL if we are promoted next season. I could list the logical fallacies at play here but only one suffices for now: 1. You were rubbish in EPL before so you will forever be rubbish at EPL. This is plainly absurd. Everybody knows how bad we were last year but that does not necessarily mean if we get promoted this season he and we will be that bad again. One has to look at the overall context - so writing him off as just a championship striker using that argument is tenuous to put it mildly. Saints are playing in a completely new way and he has got an integral role in that new style. Wether that style and his ability/role will be good enough in the EPL is a subject for debate- not him being written off already as some appear to be doing.

AA in his current form is possibly the most tenacious small stature saints forward we've had since the days of Steve Moran and Kevin Keegan. I’ve read the entire thread and it’s clear there’s a view that because he was mostly anonymous for his time in the EPL that he has that hanging over him until and unless he does actually replicate this kind of current form versus the big boys. His form does behove very well however and if the league 2nd highest goalscorer is not good enough for the EPL then by that yardstick none of the others behind him are. I personally think he is absolutely making the most of his capabilities - we have other players with more promise more potential, perhaps, but they do not follow through with goals and consistent performances. AA, no disrespect to him, may have more limited technical and physical skills but he maxes them out every single week for saints currently. I’d add that the responsibility of being Captain has added vim into his legs and as far as “ heart” is concerned he’s got it in abundance. He is prepared to sacrifice himself all night long for the team Great guy to have as our leader. And fair play to RM too for seeing that quality in him as I for sure did not think that this Adam Armstrong existed at start of season. Top man.

Not much controversy in saying his performances have not been as good as even he would probably own up to - up until recently. His defensive work as a full back judged vocally by supporters from the stands as inadequate - too often too far away from his player to stop crosses, shots, important passes. He was part of the group involved in being dispossessed in our own goal area and conceding needless goals early doors. The defensive group that every time a set piece came into our area it was chaos and we looked likely to concede. And his offensive work was largely ineffective. The tale that he was Russell’s favourite and that’s why he was picked became established and his name elicited groans not cheers when he was recalled to starting line up recently. Fast forward to last week and the return of Ryan as starting left back. I think, one obvious misplaced pass hiccup aside, that he has has had two decent matches in a row, indeed his last match was excellent. So what’s changed? Here’s my opinion. Yours will differ no doubt. 1. Team have got more capable in the possession based system. Movements on and off the ball enabling that to be done successfully hitherto having to be “remembered” from training ground are starting to become instinctive in players, and crucially, milliseconds faster. 2. Ryan Manning was often supported in his defensive duties LH side by Sam Edozie and latterly Kameldeen Sulemana. Those two are our most mercurial talents (and Amo) but without disrespecting them, they have also not quite “got” the out-of-possession side of their jobs - yet. We may never know in that period wether RM told him to “sit in” defensively a bit more as James Bree was told and has done successfully. He may have ignored that instead persisting (unsuccessfully) in trying to show why he was one of the best fb’s in the league last year. My view is he (and Russell) are showing one of their attributes better now - football intelligence. Ryan is not KWP fast or skilful dribbling-wise - and he also realises he does not have AA running back at 100mph to support him either. And he has adapted intelligently. Or listened to gaffer instructions (or both😃). 3. Playing against better teams. LCFC and ITFC for example and teams seemed focused on our LH side. They saw a potential weakness in transition situations and exploited it. Which made him look most culpable more often. Works other way as well - playing against weaker teams like Bristol and Cardiff he was enabled to show what he’s got a bit more - and he did so. 4. Playing without an obvious Left winger has benefited Ryan enormously. So obvious that he now has space ahead and the better protection in our midfield should he venture forward. I could go on with a much more detailed assessment but most of you won’t have read this far anyway! My last thoughts are that I am genuinely pleased that we are (finally) seeing the player I thought we were getting. Early doors yet though. His ability on assists crosses and general offensive play is very high at this level. He is a different player to KWP but I think he has got the potential to be as influential as him and get stronger and stronger in his current role - as long as we keep this formation/shape and he retains his football intelligence and discipline.

I’ve never seen him play two or three games in a row. Several of our players have obviously benefited from that - Bree is a good example- so I cannot tell if SM is going to be great, or if it’s just a natty hairstyle and hype.😁 What I am sure of is he is certainly not shite otherwise RM would not be putting him on the pitch this season. And he would not be a France u21 player. So, with RS injured and still question marks over Che’s future id say it’s unlikely Mara will be loaned or sold because that will leave us short/ vulnerable- unless we in turn buy or loan in another ready cooked striker.

I agree but perhaps more importantly it gives a major clue as to how we are likely to integrate RS into the team. The experiment with che Aa and Charlie seemed to work well against these. Replace Che with RS and it in theory should be producing more goals from the chances created. I must admit the idea of putting RS wide as he has been tried in his brief appearance was not one I wanted to see.m repeated too often He needs to be near the goals cos he’s there to score so this formation suits him better.