Derby Trends
The Investec Derby (G1)
Key: Top 6 in the betting (19/20) - note 11 of those came from the top 2 (11/20, 55%). Highest priced winner since 1999 was 7/1. 1st or 2nd LTO (14/14). 1st LTO (12/14). Newmarket or Irish trainer (14/15). Horses prices 16/1 or more have provided just 1 winner from the last 174 runners. Kieron Fallon & Johnny Murtagh are the most successful jockeys (3 each).
The trends eliminate very few and the winner appears likely to come from a short-list of: Bullet Train, Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch, Rewilding & Workforce.
Jan Vermeer looked mightily impressive when wide-margin G1 juvenile winner at Saint-cloud and again on reappearance at The Curragh when a step up to 12fl looked ideal. However this was not the original plan as they are not completely sure he will stay the 12fl and combined with a wide draw combines to make life tricky. He should handle the ground, and is possibly a class apart, but there is a stamina question mark.
Jan Vermeer was miles ahead of Midas Touch when they met, as a winner of the Derrinstown he should stay, although on all other counts he seems unlikely to reverse the form. Frankie has chosen Rewilding, supplemented after Goodwood, who catches the eye. You can look at the form 2 ways - he may have gone much further clear the further he went (Tom Segal thinks 10 lengths clear in another furlong), or the proximity of Prizefighting knocks the form, even if the latter has improved, with good yardstick Simenon 7.5l back in 4th - the same distance he finished behind Chabal.
On a line through Togiak (or for that matter Midas Touch) that puts Rewilding on a par with Bullet Train, or a little behind Midas Touch - or perhaps some way ahead over the long trip. Bullet Train himself is blighted by the proximity of Hot Prospect in the Lingfield Derby trial who was himself a further 3 lengths behind Coordinated Cut when they met 3 weeks before, himself well beaten in the Dante by Workforce.
And with that in mind, the Dante has looked the best British trial and the horse with an excuse in that race was Workforce, who was highly-regarded going into the race but spoiled his chance by slipping the bit after carrying his head awkwardly. Cross noseband applied for today. By all accounts he found the unusually firm ground at York too lively. He’s sharpened up and is expected to go well by connection, but even so this may come too soon.
Eye-catchers
Eye-catchers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks
Gallant Eagle (IRE), 1.40 Epsom Downs
A Barr 23/5/10 - several lengths better than bare result at Goodwood in race not run to suit. Needs a strong pace to aim at or a stiffer test of stamina and of interest when things look more likely to drop his way.
Penny’s Gift (GB), 2.40 Epsom Downs
H Taylor 12/5/10 - Raced away from the rail at Lingfield (major disadvantage on the day) and shaped as if needing the run. Travelled nicely into the race and should improve, worth consideration in similar company (up to G3)
Captain Dunne (IRE), 3:15 Epsom Downs
H Taylor 5/10 - impressive reappearance, flew home into 2nd after repeatedly hampered/no run. Went well latest at Thirsk. Remains well handicapped on his best form and in good heart.
Jan Vermeer (IRE), 4.00 Epsom Downs
A Barr 23/5/10 - most taking G1 winner in France last autumn, good-looking straight forward son of Montjeu, giving 7lbs and a very cosy beating to lesser opposition on reappearance and leaving the impression 12fl will suit really well. Likely to set a very high standard at Epsom.
Workforce (GB), 4:00 Epsom Downs
K Pitterson 19/5/10 - attempted an ambitious target at York after 1 prior outing and looked a classy fluid mover with some filling out to do and tons of scope. A potential improver for the 2nd half of the season.
Dubai Crest (GB), 4.45 Epsom Downs
A Barr 2/6/10 - creditable 4th at Sandown (denied 3rd by interference), dominated by a pair of well-treated types so the form looks good. 2lbs lower than last winning mark and coming to the boil in good form. Some stamina doubts beyond 10fl.
Notable last week on the Newmarket gallops:
All noted working well last week: Azmeel (W Buick), Al Zir (F Dettori), Bullet Train (T Queally) & Bourne
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A O’Brien, Jan Vermeer "He is a very classy colt and he got 10fl well. We’ve never been certain about him getting 12fl and that is why we considered the Prix Du Jockey Club. But such doubts are always there...the way he travels should give him every chance of getting the distance. He came out of it really well."
A O’Brien, Midas Touch "The way he won the Derrinstown it looked as if he wouldn’t mind stepping up. It was a truly run race and he came through well to win. He’s in good form."
Henry Cecil, Bullet Train "Bullet Train is in very good form and I couldn’t be happier with him. I’m sure he’ll run really well. I can’t say he’s going to win, he’ll get the trip and he’s an improving horse. He’s very tough and will act on the course, I think the race is reasonably open and he deserves to take his chance."
Sir M Stout, Workforce "He has plenty of talent and has come forward since the Dante. He is really well in himself and that experience will have pulled him together quite a bit. Temperament-wise he is going to be solid. We think there is still a great deal of improvement and he is going to be exciting."
M Al Zarooni, Rewilding "He looks a nice horse at home, but the way he won at Goodwood surprised me. I am hoping he can improve on the run. I don’t think the atmosphere will be a problem, he is quiet and very professional."
John Gosden, Azmeel "He needed his first run. He learned a lot from that and mentally it has brought him on a great deal. I think he will stay and he has come up to the race right. He stacks up with a lot of the other horses"
Michael Bell, Coordinated Cut "Everything has gone silky-smooth since the Dante. I think I have got him right fitness-wise. I think I was a bit easy on him before the Dante in hindsight. There is a chance he can reverse the form with the Stout horse."
Jim Goldie, Hawkeyethenoo "He has got a good draw (14), is in good form, has a good jockey, and a good chance. I’m very hopeful."
S Bin Suroor, Antara "has been working well but will improve on whatever she does here."
Alain de Royer-Dupre, Reggane "She’s coming back to form and I wasn’t disappointed with her at Lingfield. The ground should suit her well, but the question is how she’ll go at Epsom."
Gerard Butler, Patchattack "I’m very pleased with her. She’s been training very nicely since York and I’m pleased we’ve got Ryan Moore back on her. I expect a big run."
