benjii

Long post, but hopefully worthwhile. * * * * * I was speaking with a couple of people in the intelligence community this morning. Obviously I won't say who! Anyway, here is their assessment of what happens next. Further background below. SCENARIOS - Best case scenario: IDF pursues ground campaign in Gaza with no further intervention from Iranian proxies. Will take months and result in tens of thousands of civilian deaths. See, e.g. Mosul or Falujah. Will radicalise swathes of young Arabs across the region and cause lots of terrorism in the future. That's the best case. Estimated as relatively unlikely. - Similarly likely next scenario: IDF pursues Gaza campaign. See above.... plus Iranian proxies react but in a fairly restrained way. A few token rockets but no sustained attack on critical infrastructure. Hezbollah is the big worry. It is Hamas multiplied massively in terms of capability. It has precision weapons and more of them. It could target power stations, water plants, population centres etc. IDF ends up embroiled in a second front in Lebanon as well. See above, plus more radicalisation and economic and social unrest spreading directly inside and outside Israel. - More likely scenario: scenario 2 above but a bigger response from Hezbollah - attacking infrastructure deeper inside Israel, for example - and from the Iranian-backed Shia militia in Iraq as well as Yemeni Houthis. Risk of further escalation. Potential hotspots in Kuwait and Bahrain. Potential for US plus allies to have to get directly involved. The ongoing current US deployment in the region is the reason why the Gaza invasion is being delayed. - Extreme scenario: situation escalates beyond Iranian proxy involvement and into direct Iranian military involvement. Potential direct attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Triggers GCC defence pact, meaning Saudi and UAE (plus others) enter into war with Iran. Who knows how far that goes.... Considered least likely. Whatever happens, big wave of terrorism very likely in UK, France, Germany, Turkey etc. in short to medium term. So, pretty bleak, seeing as the best case is horrible. To the extent there are positives.... they don't consider Russia has any material resources to spare and is quite fucked militarily in Ukraine. They don't consider China has any appetite to get involved in a war in the middle east. It is sending warships over but that is to protect Chinese energy assets but nothing else. WHY DID THIS HAPPEN NOW? Saudi Arabia wants the region to settle down and to focus on economic growth. Economic growth and stability means Saudi will be regional superpower. Iran does not want Saudi to be regional superpower. Of the Sunni Gulf states, Saudi is the only one with a big population and the hugest natural resources. Iran and Saudi did a deal in Beijing in March. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/what-you-need-know-about-chinas-saudi-iran-deal One of the main concerns of Saudis is the Syrian captogen empire. Bashir Assad and his family are making TENS OF BILLIONS of dollars manufacturing and distributing captogen and a lot of it ends up in Saudi. The Hamas attackers were apparently off their nut on Captogen. That Syrian regime has been relying on Russia and Iran over recent years in the Syrian civil war. Saudi wanted Iran to help sort this out but it hasn't. Saudi obviously also wanted to ensure the Israel / Palestine situation didn't flare up and to have better relations with Israel, following the accords signed by Bahrain and UAE. It's become clear that the Saudi / Iran deal was, for Iran, just a way for Iran to buy some time whilst deceiving the Saudis and Iran is simply too paranoid/resentful to allow Saudis to pursue harmonious development plans. Obviously this ties in with a lot of public speculation, so there is nothing massively sensitive here, but thought it would be interesting to share. Of course, this also doesn't address the question of what a "post-Gaza Israel" ends up being, but if, at least, the local power of Hamas is removed then perhaps the Palestinian Authority and Israel can do some sort of deal. However, it looks like this could all go quite bad.

Hull channel is the same. Cycling through and all the iFollow seem fine apart from ours.

Went up the night before for a night on the town in Wigan. #ITK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67173344

If we don't go up this season then a big chunk of the first XI will leave. Then next season it'll be, "there are lots of new faces, it'll take time for them to understand what we're asking them to do..." rinse and repeat. A long term strategy within the club is a good idea and it should contribute, over time, to a higher chance of having a good team. At a first team level, the only thing that matters is winning the next game. If you have a good player then unless you are one of the big few clubs you have about two years to extract maximum return from them.

Jews lived in Palestine before the UN partition plan. There weren't many there, but they were fine. How's that theory working out for the West Bank Palestinians?

Biden's visit is a little worrying. Geriatric mumblings about Hamas making ISIS look more reasonable are idiotic and inflammatory. Let's hope he doesn't say or do anything too stupid whilst he's there. Fuck me, look at the people the US and UK have had in charge recently Trump, Biden, Johnson, Truss, Sunak.... it's utterly mental.

- We're not aware of any deaths. We'll investigate. - Some people were killed, but by Palestinians. Rocket went off by mistake. - OK, we did kill them but they were terrorists. - Yes, OK, some of them were civilians but they were being used as human shields by the terrorists. - OK, there were no terrorists in the area. We made a mistake. But we only kill civilians by accident and they do it on purpose. - Yes, OK, we have killed way more civilians than they have but look at other countries - they do bad stuff too! - Why are you so interested in Israel anyway? Are you some sort of anti-semite? Edit: this post wasn't about the hospital blast. Looks to me like that was not an Israeli air strike.

I think they are in Qatar, not UAE.

Yeah, dropping bombs/shelling trucks full of people on the main highway south does, on the face of it, look like the work of a complete cunt.

The people of Gaza weren't being bombed because Netanyahu has tried to cosy up to Hamas to cause a split in alliance between the Gaza leadership and the West Bank. Certain Israelis think this is why such a huge defence failure occurred at the weekend - Netanyahu didn't think it would happen. Putting Gaza aside, the reason there can never now be a clear two state solution is because of the Israeli government's support and encouragement of Jewish settlement in the West Bank and ensuring that Palestinian settlements are contained in ever shrinking enclaves without any hope of effective collective governance or statehood. Whether the above is justified or not is a matter of opinion but it is a policy clearly designed to eliminate the prospect of having to concede a proper Palestinian state on the land. It's a complete mess now with little chance of permanent solution in the absence of a pretty comprehensive genocide, but that would likely cause further escalation. I would also point out that post 7/7 the UK government didn't bomb Leeds, Leicester and Bradford. Edit: Bernie Sanders has summed it up pretty well

I watched the first episode of the BBC drama. I didn't like the way it jumped between present and past all the time. Now/then, now/then. Not for me, thanks.

Clear foul on Downes before their goal, so I presume we get a PGMOL apology later. More pertinently, that triple sub was stupid. I can understand putting Alcaraz on for ArmA or Adams, but why take Sulemana and Stu off at that point? P.s. why can't Amo Ameyaw get in the squad? Much better than Fraser or Aribo.

Clearly offside though.

No more than goes on at virtually every corner. Couldn't have complained if it was given but it's not some great injustice that it wasn't.

Or even Amo Ameyaw.

Why is Manning so narrow when we're defending?!

Keep it.

Let's say his dad is really ill and might die soon. What impact does that have? He's with the team and he's been dragged up to Boro to sit on the bench. If he's in such a terrible mental state that he can't possibly come off the bench then send him on compassionate leave. Otherwise, I'm sure he'd rather be on the pitch than sat there aimlessly. I'm sure we've all worked with colleagues with family troubles. You either need time off or you don't. If he doesn't, don't start using his personal situation, which Martin has no business at all disclosing publicly, as an excuse for your own inept management. It's bollocks. Basically, Martin doesn't know what to do with him.

The 9-0 could be under threat here. Such a bad season to get relegated last year. The three promoted sides this season are utter shite.

Someone should get Martin, his coaches, Charles and Downes to watch the video of the North Londom derby and just watch Bissouma's positioning. First class and exactly what we don't do well.

Bazza Bree - THB - Bednarek - KWP ----Charles - - Smallbone-- Stu--------Adams-----Edozie -----------Armstrong------- P.s. And when we want to sub a winger, put Amo Ameyaw on, who deserves not to be shunted below dossers like Sulemana and Aribo.

Looked lucky not to give a pelanty away there too. If matey had gone down, reckon ref would have blown. Better shape but if we have midfield cover we don't need Downes and Smallbone. Provided Charles and Downes are disciplined, we can get Alcaraz in there. Also, not sure why you would pick Holgate over Bree. Bree isn't amazing but he was regarded as a very good Championship full back, and our full backs are actually playing in full back roles today. Important 45 mins coming up!

Doing it up the arse. Sure, there's a novelty value, but a fanny is better.

Should have gone full Saville and fucked his dead mum to get it out of his system. But, yes, I agree with you. It seems to me that any sort of pathological behaviour usually derives from some sort of longing or loss that is deeper than the sensation of the experience itself.