Guided Missile

Finally...

Or....

Citi’s UK Economic Surprise Index has surged to a three-year high following a week of unexpectedly decent UK economic data. The index, which tracks how data compare with economists’ forecasts, surged from less than 50 to a high of 72.2 last week, the strongest level since 2013, writes Joel Lewin. A slew of eagerly data last week, offering some of the first clues as to how the UK economy has fared following the Brexit vote, proved surprisingly robust. On Thursday, it transpired that retail sales for July grew 1.5 per cent, topping forecasts of 0.3 per cent growth. On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics said unemployment held steady at an 11-year low of 4.9 per cent, offering no sign yet of the post-Brexit rise to 5.5 per cent envisaged by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. The unexpectedly decent data helped bounce the pound 1.6 per cent higher against the dollar during the course of the week.

Today's Telegraph reports the latest forecast from Moody's here. I wonder what the old women on here have to say about that.....

Not in a democracy. You're thinking of North Korea.

The "medicine" is that rather than buying our RM's from China in dollars next year, we will be manufacturing in the UK at a plant in the North of England. China has an artificial cost advantage in dollar terms as they have no real advantage in cost of goods. Their currency is worth what the Chinese government says it is. Labour is not an issue in chemical manufacturing so the only clear advantage China has over the UK is lower environmental and safety standards. In 2017, we will be paying less in sterling terms for the raw material than this year and will be exporting the raw material in greater volumes to the EU due to the more realistic sterling/euro rate. Sterling has been overvalued for a while. This approach is, I hope, what defines the British, rather than the London centric europhiles, who are terrified about the price of their lattés going up when the cheap, exploited labour returns to Eastern Europe. Whatever will they do with Tarquin now his underpaid nanny goes back as well? Very frightening....

I buy in dollars and sell in pounds. This year the lower pound will cost me £200k in reduced profits. Worth every penny....

The European Convention on Human Rights has nothing at all to do with the EU, but everything to do with the Council of Europe. We signed up to it as founder members of the Council of Europe at the Treaty of London in 1949. The Council of Europe was originally an idea of Winston Churchill after the war. So, to be clear, f*** all to do with the EU....

The Jan. 18, 1999, cover of TIME

Interest rates were at their lowest since the 1690's in 2010. QE started in 2008. What's your point?

Last week Deutsche Bank, the biggest bank in Germany, said that its second-quarter earnings had dropped 98 per cent compared with last year, while revenues were down by 20 per cent. John Cryan, its co-chief executive, warned that it may have to extend its restructuring programme.

Get the popcorn out at about 9:00PM tonight. Read all about it here... Nothing to worry about, though. Blame Brexit....

Fair play.... Johnny Bognor was probably thinking of the exposure of Deutsche Bank to the value of their derivatives, which I think are, at $75 trillion. As these derivatives are netted off, they don't really "owe" $75 trillion, they obviously have a surplus assets to cover these vast sums. However, whenever something sounds complicated and regulators give up trying to understand this type of financial instrument, is the time to get worried. If you "owe" $75 trillion and have assets worth $75.5 trillion and tell some faceless bank regulator that a minor change in the value of your assets won't be a problem, then you can bet it will be a problem. Wait until the end of today and the stress test results. Deutsche Bank will be told to re-capitalise. Then we'll find out how much sh!t they are in.....

Turkey, with a GDP by some estimates, about the same as London, but a better place to invest and build transits than the UK.... I guess there are less problems with unions there. If there's a strike, the government will shoot them, if the company asks nicely.

No, I never posted that Deutsche Bank owed 50 times the GDP of Germany anywhere at anytime. It's a bank in the sh!t though and you and your cat will find out how much, sooner than you can smoke another joint.....

You are on drugs...

What, like Turkey?

You realise that I didn't write a word of the post. It was a cut and paste job from an article by the BBC I linked. I travel to China often and this year will be buying over $5M worth of raw materials. Not from the Golden Donkey, though, pal....

UK explores multi-billion pound free trade deal with China Chancellor Philip Hammond has begun discussions with China on an ambitious free trade deal which could see greater access for major Chinese banks and businesses to the UK economy. The Chancellor told the BBC it was time to explore "new opportunities" across the world, including with China, one of the UK's biggest inward investors. That is despite a short term economic shock from leaving the European Union. He added that the EU is not in "punishment mode" over the Brexit vote. "What we now need to do is get on with it in a way that minimises the economic impact on the UK economy in the short term and maximises the benefit in the long term," Mr Hammond said, admitting that there had been "global disappointment" about the Brexit vote. Chinese state media reported earlier in the month that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce wants to do a UK free trade deal. At the G20 many countries are now moving into practical mode - the Chancellor campaigned against leaving the EU and China argued against it, but Mr Hammond has clearly signalled that is now a matter for the history books. The British public have spoken. The present challenge is seeing how the fifth largest economy in the world can take advantage of that decision, rebuilding a "close" trading relationship with the EU and new economic relationships with countries, like China, which, it should be remembered, has never had a free trade agreement with any EU country.

Frau Merkel speaks:

Another referendum on Scottish independence will never happen. The myth that Scotland voted to remain in the EU is total b0ll0x. They voted in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. So, constitutionally they need to: Vote to leave the UK Vote for Scotland to join the EU As I said, that will never happen and is only a fantasy for Wee Jimmy Krankie. Joining the EU would be a financial disaster for an independent Scotland and Jocks are too fond of holding on to their money. Mind you, without free movement of labour, what a laugh it would be putting border posts back up in Scotland....

On the basis of e.g. shale oil production or food output, land mass is more important than population as a measure of the value of imported goods. If you're interested in cheap goods based on exploited local labour, then population size is more important. Personally, lower-cost energy and food supplies for the UK, seem more attractive than a cheap pair of trainers...

Total b0ll0x as usual. Have another Werthers Original and go and have a lie down, won't you. Of course we can negotiate deals before we leave the EU. As the article you didn't bother to read says: None as blind as those that won't see...

For all the cry baby Remainers on this thread, please dry your eyes just long enough to read this article in today's Times. Read the frightened posts on this thread and laugh at the Remainers that swallowed the b0ll0x that was published by the establishment.