SaintBobby Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 As a total stat nerd, I'm looking at Saints' results this season from going 1-0 down. I can't say I've completed a categorical search, but it looks like - on a cursory glance - that we may recover more points from 1-0 down than any English league team in any division since the war. As an aside, I spoke to a few bookies about this. They said that in live betting markets, the first goal is usually decisive. Of course, that's usually because it is scored by the stronger team (e.g. Chelsea 1 Bolton 0) and therefore just tends to reaffirm the pre-match odds. But in a relatively even battle - say Rovers v Saints - they reckoned the first goal nearly wipes out a recovery to win. Their best guess was that at the 30 min mark, the spot price on a Saints win vs Rovers was about 10/1 or 12/1. But we seem to do this a lot (Southend? Oldham? Leyton? Walsall? Hartelpool!) Would welcome other nerdy/statto analysis. I blame the manager. We shouldn't be going behind early this often. PARDEW OUT (note: this para is not serious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintNeil90 Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 I work at Ladbrokes and their is no way they would have had us at 10 or 12/1 on 30 mins after being 1-0 down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arizona Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 Whenever we go behind in a match these days, I always think we will still get something out of it, which shows our progress. Off the top of me 'ead: MK Dons (h) - 1-0 down at ht. Won 3-1 Carlisle (a) - 1-0 in injury time. Last minute equaliser Walsall (h) - 1-0 down very early on. Won 5-1. Rovers (a) - An extraordinary repeat of the above. Orient (h) - 1-0 down after about a minute. Won 2-1 Orient (a) - 2-0 with about 20 mins left. 2-2 draw. Brighton (a) - Went behind twice, drew 2-2 Hartlepool (a) - They took the lead. We won 3-1 That's 18 points gained after going behind. Pretty sure last season was the opposite, throwing points away. That's not including the best rescue opperation of the season. Waigo's last gast equaliser to draw with Norwich in the JPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 14 April, 2010 Author Share Posted 14 April, 2010 I work at Ladbrokes and their is no way they would have had us at 10 or 12/1 on 30 mins after being 1-0 down. Interesting. What would you say the odds would have been at Ladbrokes on a Saints win after 30 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockportsaint Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 A great site for research into just such things is the stats section of Football 365: http://stats.football365.com/dom/index.html - specifically this page: http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/ptsgain.html Shows we've come from behind in 10 games, winning 6 and drawing 4. The games in question: Carlisle (a) - 1-0 down till Jaidi equalised in injury time - DRAW MK Dons (h) - 1-0 at H-T (Puncheon), scored 3 in 2nd half - WIN Leyton Orient (a) - 2-0 down after an hour, brace from Rickie resued a point - DRAW Hartlepool (a) - 1 down after 15 minutes, Lallana leveled before h-t, then Lallana and Ricky made it 3-1 - WIN Walsall (h) - concede after 3 minutes, then scored 5, including Barnard's first (two) - WIN Hartlepool (h) - one down after 10 minutes, level within 3 minutes, went on to win 3-2 - WIN Brighton (a) - twice went behind, but twice drew level (last goal in 89th minute) - DRAW Leyton Orient (h) - went behind after 2 minutes, but 2 goals either side of h-t from Lallana gave us the WIN Brizzle R (a) - made the mistake of scoring in 1st half, which only made us angry enough to score 5 - WIN Just looked back at this, and I can only see three draws in that list, although the F365 stats say we managed it four times. Anyone else spot another draw snatched from defeat this season (League only)? Also, we shouldn't forget 2 of the JPT games: Torquay - came from 2-0 down at H-T to draw, then won on pens Norwich - took the lead, then let in 2, came back to draw, won on pens. Pleasingly, this season we've managed twice something that we didn't do for something like 12 years, namely win an away game when we conceded first. As I recall, between 1994 at Coventry and at Burnley in 2006, if the home team scored first, they were guaranteed at least a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 . That's not including the best rescue opperation of the season. Waigo's last gast equaliser to draw with Norwich in the JPT. Incorrect. The best rescue operation of the season was being bought by Mr Liebherr. :-) It was pretty last gasp stuff too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintNeil90 Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 Interesting. What would you say the odds would have been at Ladbrokes on a Saints win after 30 minutes? No more than 9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edprice1984 Posted 14 April, 2010 Share Posted 14 April, 2010 A bloke standing behind me in the terrace last night had Saints to win 5-1 @ 90/1...he put a tenner on it! NICE! The only saints fan there who was willing us not to score a 6th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 14 April, 2010 Author Share Posted 14 April, 2010 No more than 9/4 Thats nonsense, surely. The starting odds were 11/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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