Dman

I agree with this. It was actually Twar who was arguing that we were unlucky to concede 6 given their XG was 4. Anyone reasonable and who actually watched the game can tell you that is nonsense.

Fuck me. Head against a brick wall. there are many external factors. Some being; - Time and situation of the game - less pressure at 80 minutes when you’re 6-0 up, than it is 0-0 in a relegation battle. - pace and accuracy of the pass / cross (specifically for these type of chances). - finishing ability of the striker. Regardless of what XG says, there are some strikers who are better than others. Anyway, agree to disagree, I cba to continue to go over the same stuff.

His evidence is based on XG, which I’ve disputed the accuracy of due to a number of external factors, which simply cannot be quantified. You’ve not been able to answer or satisfy those questions. As I’ve always said, there is certainly a place in the game for stats, used correctly, they can be a valuable tool, but also a degree of your own analysis needs to happen along side said stats. anyway, this is a long way off the thread. I maintain, on another day (let’s say Lukaku was fit), the score would very likely have been more than 6.

I guess it must be true if ‘James Tippett’, from ‘football critic’ says so. Amazing that United have spent a fortune bringing in Ronaldo, when they could have just asked Glen Murray out of retirement.

And if you’re striker is better at taking said chances (I.e a better finisher), they’ll score more goals… or are you arguing that is not correct? Or in Brighton’s case, where they have a high XG compared to goals scored (I think), chances don’t win games because their striker(s) / forwards aren’t very good…

Aye? You’re massively overthinking this. I can only assume you’ve watched the moneyball film or a few YouTube videos and think you’re some kind of genius. Clearly, a striker who score 1 of 2 chances he gets in a game, is better than one who scores 0/8. ‘Chances’ don’t win you games, goals do.

I haven’t watched much of Ronaldo, I was using him as an example as being one of the best strikers in the world for many years. But you’re missing the point completely, as per. The quality of the striker impacts the likelihood of the chance going in. XG doesn’t factor that in.

Let me clarify. What XG is good at demonstrating… “we’re playing well, creating a lot of ‘good chances’, but not putting them away. I.E Brighton. or, as an example more relevant to the film… “we need a goal scorer, adams has many qualities, but his record is x compared to his XG of x. He’s not a great finisher” What XG isn’t good at demonstrating… “We were unlucky that was was 6, their XG was only 4”. Stick Ronaldo on the end of a few of those Werner chances and he doesn’t miss. Especially the free header from 10 yards. XG is an average and there are many variables to that average, the main one being the quality of the finishing of striker. Every time someone like Werner or Adams miss from 10 yards, it brings the XG for that chance down. It also doesn’t factor in, as Chez pointed out, external pressures that simply cannot be accounted for in statistics. In short, if you watched that game and genuinely thought we were unlucky to concede 6, then You clearly have very little understanding of football.

Those claiming we shouldn’t sack Ralph are the same ones who were calling for Puel’s head. He faced the same restraints as golden boy Ralph’s arguably even worse given the players we lost that summer, finished 8th got to a cup final and yet was hounded out. his 1 season here was far more successful than any of Ralph’s 3.

It was only a month or 2 ago where people on here were saying we had an outside chance of Europe. Had we not imploded, again (as we did last season), then maybe we’d have a chance. A slim one I agree, but certainly a chance.

We had 1 and half bad seasons under 2 really poor managers. Before that, we finished 8th and we’re a solid mid table side. A clear path to relegation is a bit OTT. Had Puel stayed, we’d probably be in roughly thr same position as we are now. As someone else said, under a worse manager we’d be relegated, under a better one we’d be top 10 maybe, at a push, even Europe. Ralph’s results have been average, imo. After the initial bounce of him coming in and improving us from Hughes / MoPo (not really a huge task), have we improved? I don’t think so. We can be great, or can be appalling, we’re consistently inconsistent.

Agree. Miles behind someone like James, but at a similar age, James was learning his trade with Wigan, not in the premier league and all the pressures that bring. I think at the minute, he’d be fantastic as a wing back in a 343, but in a back 4, he’s not strong enough defensively imo.

Strangely optimistic of a result here. Arsenal are the type of team who we can cause problems if we press well. It cannot be as bad as the last game. 1-1 I’m going for. Broja and Perrud coming in for Tino and Armstrong. Maybe Redmond or Tella for Moi

For all his ridiculous comments on twitter, Le Tiss has done less to embarrass this club than the current manager and playing staff over the last 2 years.

I don’t know if you watched yesterday, but IMO, it was equal to if not worse than both of those performances.

Doesn’t really answer my question. My point, was that the chance (header) that Werner missed from 10 yards would be harder and less likely for a L2 player to score than say, Ronaldo or any other premier league striker… especially those worth £50m.

Genuine questions, given that XG is calculated based on an average of a group of shots from each position, does it factor in quality of the striker? If not, it’s completely fucking pointless.

We already hold that record.. it’s happened twice.

How do you know this? I bet you’d not seen either of them play a minute of football. Regarding Romeu and Bednerak. It’s debatable that Bednerak is a premier league player, he plays because we don’t have any better. Not that he is much better, Ralph just prefers him (probably why we’ve shipped 9’goals twice) Romeu, just because he wasn’t playing doesn’t mean he wasn’t a good player. Hughes & MoPo preferred the big name of Lemina playing next to Hojberg. As I said, he was player of the season under Puel so clearly had hit these sort of levels before. To Ralph’s credit, he’s improved JWP. He’s added a degree of solidity to him, so credit where it’s due there.

Hahaha very good point there sir!

Bednerak, who most can’t wait to see the back of? Romeu, who was play of the season under Puel? Armstrong was chipping in with goals and still looked a real good player under Hughes. Broja / Tino are at the same level as their first game imo. Not much improvement there, they came from Chelsea, so clearly we’re good players before us. Rather biased imo.

What a stupid argument and What the hell are you going on about balances out. Someone scoring a screamer has absolutely no impact on someone missing a sitter in the same game. They’re 2 separate incidents which have no correlation to each other. It couldn’t have been less, because they literally put the ball in the net 6 times. They scored 6 which is a fact and missed 2, possibly more, really good opportunities that it’s not unreasonable to expect a £50m striker to score.

Did you watch the game? Genuine question. If you did and you don’t think it could have been more, then please can you tell me what you were drinking before, as I need some. I assume you were in the toilet when Werner missed a free header from 10 yards and Forster made a fantastic point blank save from Werner (one of which I don’t think either of the keepers who played in the 9-0 would have saved) - so that’s 8, there at least. Then there are the saves Forster made, some very very good + Werner hitting the post and a few just going wide. So yes, on another day it could have been 10.

Yep. Very average defender, which is why shoutgate doesn’t pick him… regardless of how many assists he gets.

I think we’ve had an average season, about par with what you’d realistically expect. Personally, at the start of the season I felt very pessimistic, given we were off the back of a run which saw us win a handful of games in about 30, but upon reflection and review, I’d say (given our squad) mid table is what you’d expect. I think we’ll finish anywhere between 12th - 16th, which you’d say is about par. That being said, it’s very likely we’ll go on another ridiculously bad run, that rot has already started 1 point in 5 games is it now? Amd that performance deserved another 9-0 and was arguably worse. All things considered, we’ve performed over the course of the season about par, embarrassed ourselves in a shambles of a performance, again for the 3rd season running, failed in cups with ridiculous team selections.. again. Ralph continues to make the same mistakes, in his 3 seasons in charge he’s not taken us to the next level, if anything we’re getting worse. He was an upgrade on Hughes and MoPo but we’re stall and need a change, imo.