chiknsmack

@ChristopheVAFC what's happening with Basse and Oyewusi?

Isn't he? The fact that the club are holding so firm on him means they think either other teams will come in for him and drive the price higher as you say, or that if he's still here come January and we're top of the league he'd sign a 3.5 year contract at good PL money and with a release clause. There's been a contract in front of him that he hasn't signed, but that was for a club dropping out of the PL and sacking multiple managers. Maybe under a new regime of Spors and Still he'll be more inclined to stay (and maybe they'll offer a better contract). He was happy to play behind closed doors vs Brighton, and the manager was happy to play him. So the door on him staying here obviously hasn't been closed by either side.

Even with all of those leaving there's plenty in this squad. Consider a first XI and a second XI using a 4-2-1-3. Both have the glaring absence of an AM, but even that second XI doesn't look out of place alongside midtable Championship lineups. So we have plenty of depth. Three at the back gets rid of the need for an AM by focusing on attacks from out wide. And again, that's assuming no reinforcements and everyone listed leaves (like others I don't think THB does). With five loan spots, the best part of £100m in net transfer fees, and being amongst the favourites for promotion and so an attractive path to Premier League football for new recruits? We're in a decent spot. We've already reportedly turned down what we paid for him from Porto. He's also clearly a class above the others at this stage. He's probably not. But with even minimal improvement is he midtable PL with a good head on his shoulders? Probably. With the potential to be the next Mark Guehi, is he worth a decent bit more than £20m? Yes.

He's not fine at the next level up, and we have plenty of CBs who are also (probably) fine at this level and who might be good enough for the next level if given a full season at this level to develop (Edwards, Quarshie, Wood, Kayi Sanda). Every minute of Captain Jack playing is a minute one of the others aren't, and they're the future of the club so shouldn't be getting blocked by someone whose tenure here should be wrapping up when his contract expires at the end of this season (but that's a whole 'nother story, which itself has also been done to death). Dibling played this morning.

I wasn't impressed with Bree and Welington in the last friendly (though I still like them overall), so maybe a chance of Sugawara/Edwards at RB and Manning/Taylor at LB. I also wasn't impressed with the lack of creativity in the first half, though I'm less confident Will Still agrees with me here. So we might see more BBD and Fraser (though I hope not). Armstrong on the right, Robinson on the left, Stewart or Downs up the middle, and NFI who plays behind them. I still hold out hope we might see a 3-4-3, which would get three CBs (one position where we have depth) on the field and eliminate the need to find someone to play as a 10. It'd also be evidence that Still isn't happy with what he's seen thus far. In that case something like Edwards - Stephens/THB - Quarshie Sugawara - Charles - Whoever - Manning Armstrong - Downs - Robinson Still likes to attack with a 2-3-5 or 3-2-5 so, while I don't know how much attacking we'll be doing against Brighton, the above allows two of the midfield four to push forward. You could go with a more defensive option on one of the flanks (eg. Bree or Taylor) with that man always dropping into midfield and the more attacking wideman pushing into attack along with one of the two midfielders, or you can go with two holding midfielders and let the wide players do all the attacking. I personally like Sugawara (with his average ball control but quality crossing meaning he's better out wide) on the overlap forcing Armstrong (whose shooting is much better than his crossing) to play more centrally.

You might be right, but if he goes to Everton I can also see him moving to Liverpool for £80m next summer. He's already PL quality and he's not turning 20 until next year. He's basically Jack Grealish, and I think like Grealish a year in the Championship then a year in the PL sets him up for a big-money move to a top club. Going to Everton now means skipping the Championship season; whether skipping that is enough to turn him from Grealish into Barkley, or whether last season's disasterclass in the PL is an adequate replacement for Grealish's Championship season, I don't know. The solution to the first part is... don't do the second part. You need ~15 mid-table PL-level players to make a good fist of staying up in the PL (from whence you can press on and establish yourselves as a mid-table PL team, then press on further to Europe). To have 15 mid-table PL players after being promoted you need to either drop £500m on 25 brand new £20m players and hope for a 60% success rate (AND hope all these players you've bought in gel together to make a cohesive team), or you need to get promoted with some number of mid-table PL (or better) players. Getting promoted with any players of this quality means hitting the jackpot with some number of cheapies (Edwards, Quarshie, Downs look like live chances), having a couple of academy kids step up (Robinson), spending not far shy of the £20m you need to spend in the PL on players who are considered worth this but for whatever reason are willing to play in the Championship (eg. loan to buys of players the quality of THB and Downes, or £12m+ on players like Charles), and - if you've recently been relegated - hanging onto as many of the mid-table PL-level players you already have as possible. (Even then you need luck; for example if Dibling had four years left on his contract and Fernandes had two instead of the reverse, it'd be MUCH easier to keep Dibling and would have little/no impact on the fee/interest in Fernandes.) Ramsdale and Fernandes meet the required standard. Dibling, THB, Edwards, Charles, and Welington are strong candidates to. Downes, Aribo, and Archer don't, but are close enough to scrape by. (Yes, Archer scoring 6 in minutes equivalent to 37 games is poor, but so were the teams he played for. And he's still only 23.) Quarshie, Sugawara, Robinson, Stewart, and Downs are live longshots that might make it. Other than that we have a couple of super longshots (Kayi Sanda, Wood, Matsuki, maybe Sesay) and so many Championship-level (sometimes "too good for the Championship"-level) players that we shouldn't be looking for new players to get promoted, but rather looking for new players to keep us up next year. The first four names listed were not enough on their own last season, but keeping those four means there are seven fewer £20m players you need to buy next season. It's also easier to go "Fernandes is PL quality; let's keep him" than to project forward the development of outside players or lesser players we already have. (Unfortunately, it's also MUCH easier to say "We should keep this guy who is obviously far too good for the Championship" than to actually keep him.) No, we've been playing Ryan Fraser as an AM. With the fact that our "Number 10" barrel is so empty that we've managed to scrape Weeman off the bottom of it, coupled with Still's past use of a 3-4-3 and known flexibility with respect to formations AND our CB depth which has seen CBs played at other positions just to get them on the park, using a wingback system is a distinct possibility. Yes. Another thing people forget when looking for us to buy more Championship-quality players a month before the window closes; we can borrow players money can't buy who will either do better than those we could buy or bugger off and not clog up the wage bill if they don't. Good concept; play players who might be PL quality over those who aren't. If they get smashed, reassess. If they don't, keep giving them chances to develop. Poor execution; play Sanda (or THB if fit, or Captain Jack for his unrivalled leadership) at CB and Edwards/Charles/Matsuki at 6/8/10.

What price Downs? I think Archer gets first shot at the job but I'm not sure he keeps it. I also rate Stewart and now that he's fully fit and healed and presumably has been doing the rehab/flexibility work to not have any concerns with his posterior chain (you see it so often with players - Stewart included - that they injure one part of the chain and then go on to have issues elsewhere along it) there's no reason he can't be fit and healthy all season. These are the two markets I have available in NZ; a handicap market paying 18/1 on every team and an outright market. Leicester and Watford look the obvious bets in the handicap market. Watford are joint eighth favourites in the outright market at 25/1 but getting +21 in the handicap, the same as Millwall and Bristol City who are 40/1 and 50/1 respectively (though maybe the discrepancy is in the outright market and Watford should be closer to 50/1). If Leicester somehow dodge a points deduction they could be in the race for autos, in which case +13 looks good. But just like in the Twitter thread above with people going "Where's Sargent? He's easy money", there are off-field factors that won't be resolved for a while yet. Maybe it's a good hedge as a Saints fan; if there's a deduction for Leicester it improves the chances of Saints going up, if there's no deduction your handicap bet looks pretty good.

My notes from throughout the game as I saw it. Stephens’ passing is shit. Negativity from Fraser in possession. Welington could have had two yellow cards in the first seven minutes. Long balls down the line to Archer look like the plan. It’s a shit plan when Archer is the target in particular, but a good use of Quarshie and Edwards (and THB) if they play on the outside of a 3 in a 3-4-3. Armstrong is wasted outside of a front 3. His workrate is arguably his best asset so a more fluid role across the front suits him better than having to stay in a zone on the right. Espanyol have their first chance on 14 minutes; Welington leaves a foot in and could’ve conceded a penalty against a more cynical attacker. I like him but that’s three notable bad moments already. Armstrong is also completely lost defensively in wide midfield. Fernandes has been quiet but good when he’s been involved. Charles has been getting forward more of the two and looking good doing it. He’s not Wanyama to Fernandes’ Schneiderlin; they’re both Schneiderlins. There hasn’t been enough in attack; mostly long balls down the line and misplaced passes in behind in the final third. Probably a symptom of not having a creative CAM. Some accidental one-touch football through the middle – courtesy of not-the-first poor pass from Ramsdale – sets Fraser free to run into the final third. Unfortunately a shot from 24yds is the only option he can find. BBDs workrate has actually looked good, but a few times in possession we’ve seen the problem with a right-footed player playing wide left. Archer leads a 3v3, BBD makes the wrong run (outside to in, as he wants to be on his right foot) to lead Archer into a 1v2. Armstrong makes no run at all. Saints having some luck from turnovers from an improved press. Armstrong has also dropped deep a couple of times to play some tappy shit and let Fernandes move up, where he looks potent (as he should, being by far the best player on the pitch for Saints). Quarshie has dealt with everything defensively quite well. He’s also been vocal and directing those around him. Wood has had a good preseason, Bednarek and THB are still here, Edwards is coming off a good season at this level, but Quarshie doesn’t look like a 5th choice CB. Half time, 0-0. Quarshie off, Bree on, Edwards from RB to LCB. BBD off, Robinson on, straight swap. Bree and Stephens immediately combine to let a man run in behind them from the kickoff and win a corner. Bree has since gone on a completely pointless overlap when the underlap was on, hammered a pass directly to an opponent while under no pressure (in his defence he was trying to bypass the entire midfield and play in Archer), and given up what should’ve probably been a stonewall pen. There’s a bit of venom in this second half. Just before the non-penalty Armstrong picked up a yellow for barging straight through a guy for no reason. Just afterwards an RCD player was lucky to avoid the same for going into the back of Fraser. Robinson looks good, controlling the ball well and looking to be positive with it. Bulk changes for RCD on 58 minutes. Bree and Stephens decide to play backwards and short from a wide-midfield free kick. It leads to them giving Fernandes the ball in a 1v3 situation not far from where the free kick was. After the turnover RCD cycle the ball across the backline from left to right and left again, then a long ball down the line sees Bree let his man get in behind him again and put in a cross. When the cross is cleared back in his direction, Bree then mishits a kung-fu clearance. I’ve been a proponent of the 4-2-1-3 becoming a 2-3-5 in attack, with one attacking fullback getting forward (Welington or Sugawara) and one defensive fullback sitting in in midfield (Bree or Taylor). On the evidence of the past 20 minutes it’s hard to want Bree anywhere near the team. Bulk changes for Saints on 62 minutes. Wood for Edwards, Manning for Welington, Downs for Archer, Fernandes for Sesay. All straight swaps. A mistake between Wood and Charles sees RCD away in a 3v2 which becomes a 4v2. Miscontrol from the attacker spares blushes. Another five changes for RCD on 68 minutes. GOAL RCD, 69 minutes, 1-0. A decent little move from the back, LFB to DM to striker straight up the middle who lays off for AM, whose throughball to the striker is deflected by Stephens into space where he and Manning watch the AM beat them to it and slot home. Downs is a big unit but he has a turn of foot. Others aren’t finding Sesay for whatever reason (preferring to go back or wide), and when he does get it he’s a bit quick/panicky. Not unsurprising for a kid playing up a couple of levels, but he looks like he’ll be getting a season with the U21s unless quite a few players leave. A Saints sub (and a second drinks break) on 73 minutes. Stewart for Armstrong, Robinson to wide right midfield, Stewart to right attack, Fraser to left attack. GOAL RCD, 76 minutes, 2-0. A very soft penalty (dive) against Stephens from a bouncing cross. He was penalised for a trailing arm to the head of the striker getting in behind him, but it’s never a pen. Still, they were probably owed one from earlier. Bree pushes up to press the opposition fullback, gets beaten all ends up and drags him back. Robinson picks up a loose ball near midfield and immediately looks to run at his man and then play in Downs. From what we’ve seen today he’s third name on the teamsheet behind Ramsdale and Fernandes. Stephens’ passing is still shit. Robinson drops back to pick up a pass from a pressured Ramsdale, then plays a nice ball forward to Fraser on the left wing whose contribution is poor chest control and a pass backwards. A few good touches from Sesay, starting from a phase where the ball was rolled to his feet by Ramsdale and he carried forward before some interplay with Stewart. Also a couple of moments where he’s been on his heels (or a pass to him has been poor and he’s had to adjust) and a couple of RCD straight balls through midfield where he may have been in the wrong position, but he’s warming into things. At least until the ball gets smashed into the side of his head on 90 minutes. GOAL Saints, 90+1, 2-1. RCD playing more conservatively has allowed Saints to press. The press has allowed Saints to turn defence into attack, at least until someone who doesn’t want to attack (eg. Fraser) gets the ball. On this occasion Robinson forces his man back near the touchline in midfield, Stewart pounces to take possession, he plays it to Robinson who takes one touch before playing it in behind to the near post for Downs who shoots first time across the keeper and just inside the far post from a couple of yards outside the corner of the six yard box. Full time 2-1. Great: Robinson, Quarshie. Good: Fernandes, Charles (first half), BBD, at a stretch Stewart (in the wrong position but working hard and getting involved positively) and Downs (great finish, looked quick and fast, not heavily involved). Bad: Stephens, Bree, Fraser, Welington.

Tim Lederer.

He's very one-footed, as you can see from the last goal where he refused to put in a cross with his left. Even the balls into Manning on the underlap were with his right. He's not a left winger. On the off chance we play two up front he can play on the left of a two - cutting inside and shooting like he did against Lazio a year ago - but if we were playing two up front he wouldn't be in front of Stewart, Archer, or Downs for me. I also don't particularly want Manning anywhere near the starting side either (was it his shirt pull for the penalty?), so the two of them gelling together in a friendly against Gillingham is of zero value IMO.

There's more money for wages in England than in Portugal. And there's room between the £14.25m Porto paid and the £20-25m you think he's easily worth for us to chuck in a better offer while still paying a smaller transfer fee than he's worth.

Edwards is proven at this level and has high upside. He's basically THB but a couple of years behind, and either of them (or both) could make Champions League level/should make mid-table Prem level. Right now for me it's THB, Bednarek, Edwards, then a decent gap to the unproven (Kayi-Sanda, Quarshie) and the dross (Wood, ABK, Stephens, the non-CBs who can play CB). My hope is that it's Edwards and Bednarek to start the season, with Bednarek leaving once THB is fit (or staying to be the established player helping the youngsters, but if the purported cheap release clause and Italian interest are true then that's unlikely). My fear is that it's Bednarek and Stephens, with Bednarek and THB leaving later in the window.

If both THB and our 7th choice CB are on the pitch at the same time we will certainly be in challenging times. Those three are the three that are being targeted to be brought in *without sales*. He wants to get rid of some of the dross without replacing them to trim the squad, but if anyone he wants to keep is sold they'll be replaced. If THB and Bednarek go, Steve Cook. A leader with a proven record who is good enough for the league but won't be too upset if some of the younger players he helps improve take his spot. Ben Mee as above is a decent shout too. One of the only things you've said that I actually agree with is that we have a completely serviceable bunch of CBs for the Championship even if THB and Bednarek leave (though they're a long, LONG way from being good enough for the Prem; I'm hoping we return to the Prem with a better THB and an Edwards and/or Quarshie who have improved so much that they're better than Bednarek ever was), so it's the only position where we might sell a player for £20m+ and not spend £10m+ on a replacement. That said, I'm not sure words like serviceable and adequate are the ones I want to see used to describe the squad. I don't want an adequate Championship squad, I want an adequate Premier League one (or as close as we can get right now without the money and lure of Premier League football).

Who made the team of the year last year and didn't get promoted? (Answer: Sargent, Sainz, Hamer, Burrows.) #simple I'd also throw in Hayden Hackney. It's obviously not #simple to sign them (I imagine PL sides are looking at all five of them, though they've had a few years to look at Sargent and Hamer and not jumped on them), but there's your answer for the "Get relegated, sign the best players in the league you're now in" strat. -------------- On Edozie, he's good enough for the Championship with possible PL upside. That's the profile we should be targeting, if the goal is promotion then staying up in the PL. A season in the Championship is a chance to blood youngsters and get them gelling before they step up to the PL and hopefully do enough to pick up a point a game. It's a better use of this season than giving game time to players who are good enough for the Championship and proven not good enough for the PL, which we have plenty of.

Also the fact that we want to keep him and have him be our captain in the Prem for the next decade.

The P&O logo is navy and gold (or near enough to it), but on the shirts looks more black and white. I'm a fan of gold on a shirt (the 2020/21 third shirt - white, red sash, gold LD Sports and Under Armor logos - is one of my favourites) and a navy logo would tie in nicely with navy shorts. Hummel had a couple of misses (in 2022/23 everything bar the third shirt) but Puma haven't had a hit yet bar maybe the GK shirts last year, which were a stock template.

There was one left; 21yo Souleymane Basse who was one of the better young prospects at the club IMO. He played most of the second half of the relegation season, and most of the second half of last season after being out injured for the first half. Two had been released; a solid but unspectacular 31yo and a 21yo picked up from Bordeaux's academy when they went into administration who was a good attacker but an awful defender. So now they have Basse, 25yo Wahib who looks good for this level and maybe beyond but with a major injury in his past, and 19yo Koum on loan.

A targetman who was never targeted, with a poacher's instinct for winning loose balls in the box on the rare occasion the team did anything progressive like taking a shot or putting in a low cross. With the right gameplan he's Chris Wood, but unfortunately during his whole time at Saints he was managed by retards.

Saints played in quarters (and halves, and the sash) in the first ten years or so. I wouldn't be averse to a red version of a Bristol Rovers kit personally. They even had one a few years ago which paid tribute to an old striped kit of theirs. But otherwise yeah, stripes. https://www.footballkitarchive.com/bristol-rovers-2019-20-home-kit/24763/

The stripes are great. The two different shades of red (which I'm still hoping aren't real) and the overdose of white (white sidepanels, no stripes on the back) aren't. These stripes, front and back, with red sidepanels is perfect. An identical away design with yellow and blue in place of white and red, and an identical third shirt with black and [insert colour here] and the job's done.

Along these lines, and a left-field idea predicated on both Bednarek and THB leaving (and Stephens finally being deemed not good enough), would we consider an experienced CB to help guide our otherwise young group at the position (Edwards, Wood, Quarshie, Sanda)? Ideally someone who is good enough for the Champ but old enough and with the right mentality to not get his nose out of joint if the youngsters he helps develop usurp him. Someone like Dunk/Tarkowski/Lindelof (all club captains in the Prem last season), or QPR captain Steve Cook (who played with Edwards last season). Possibly we already have the man for the job in Taylor (though he hasn't been rated highly by our past couple of managers and might want a return to Burnley), but Dunk or Cook in particular would add a lot.

That's Josh McNamara, who was behind Adli in the U21 pecking order (despite being a couple of years older). His contract is due to expire; don't know if it's been extended or anything. We'll trade Dibling for three might-be-Fernandeses. They even have their own M. Fernandes (19yo RB, Europa League experience, YHGTI, if Sugawara goes then - competent as Bree is - replacing him would be nice) who would be an obvious pick for one of the three.

Transfermarkt has Archer at 175cm, or 5'7.5". Less than an inch taller than Armstrong.