tisspahars

I absolutely take your point - and quite clearly we would have better prospects of staying up if a fit Ings was in our squad now - but in that season when we were top in November he only scored 5 goals in the first 16 games so it's not quite that black and white.

We may have to agree to disagree on objectivity - I think we are considerably more likely to go down that stay up but that it is far from certain. I'd say that is pretty objective. And things can change - look not only the mood on here after Chelsea compared with after Wolves but, for an example in reverse, Saints under Ralph producing table-topping form from August to November and relegation form for most of the rest of that season!

With all due respect and stuff 😉I think it's hard to be objective when it's your team. I suspect you thought similar after the Wolves loss but if you had had a huge wedge of money to put on at that point, then after last week's win at Stamford Bridge you would have been left thinking "F*** me! There's a chance I've just done my life savings in here". Most Saints fans are pretty despondent after yesterday, a fair chunk do seem to think we're definitely going down - and of course they may well be right - but Everton fans won't be feeling great this morning, or Bournemouth fans or even Notts Forest fans, whilst Leeds and West Ham fans were feeling the same way before yesterday's games. If (and although it's a big if it's really not that unlikely) we progress to the FA Cup QF this week then beat Leicester all of a sudden the feeling is "Game on!" again. People don't like uncertainty which is why you get so many "That's it, we're 100% down!" moments - which is kind of the reason I've done these threads for the last few years - but the truth is 2/5 is about the right price, we are likely to go down but far from certain and it is likely to stay that way for quite a while yet.

And 4/7 becomes 2/5 after a back down to Earth day at Leeds.

What a difference a win at Stamford Bridge makes to everything, including the betting.......2/7 becomes 4/7.....👀

Indeed, a 30% chance of happening miracle! 🤣

Don't let it keep you up though.

The Betfair exchange market (usual reminder that fixed odds markets are largely irrelevant) is suggesting Marsch is certainly a/the frontrunner but by no means a done deal. Not really a bean for anyone else (so far).

In case anyone is unaware, the Steve Bruce thing is a wind-up. Anytime a manager gets the sack Twitter users announce Steve Bruce set to take over in the knowledge it will send fans of that club into a frenzy.

2/7 after defeat to Wolves.

Marsch gone at Leeds!

TBH the odds with the fixed odds firms are pretty much irrelevant - NJ is odds against on the exchange.

Around 1/2 after a dismal day with another horrific performance at Brentford and surprising wins for several of our relegation rivals. Also, for those claiming "that must be Jones gone now" the market would suggest there is very little chance of that happening.

Interestingly (to me at least) the woes at Everton mean there is now a distinct difference in the market between us and them. Despite being above us (albeit on GD) they are 4/7 to go down and we remain 4/5.

4/5 after the defeat to Villa. Given if the JWP had stood and we had gone on to win, we would currently be 16th, with 18 games to go, having seen precious little opportunity thus far from our two big January signings and with more to come.....it is somewhere between funny and tragic to see the return of the "we are 100% down" brigade. I know people struggle to deal with uncertainty but jeez....Here's a spoiler alert for you.... We are in a precarious position and it is certainly possible we may go down but it is far from certain. I guarantee you that in TEN games time that will still be the case.

Back out to evens following the win at Everton.

For those that still care, around 4/7 after the latest capitulation against Forest. I don't have the time, energy or will to check but I am guessing the last time we were this short is just before Gabbiadini scored at Swansea!

A shade of odds against (11/10) after the Brighton debacle. The fact that we are rated (ever so slightly) more likely to stay up than go down must genuinely blow the minds of a fair few on here, I'd say. Personally, I am considerably more downbeat after yesterday than at any point thus far - I was entirely open to the idea that NJ had something about him, the players would buy into it and that a couple of decent January signings would see us absolutely fine. Yesterday, in one fell swoop, made all three of those things seem a whole lot less likely.

An update ahead of the return to action on Boxing Day..... Saints Forum view - Almost certain to be relegated, probably finishing bottom. Betting market view - Considerably more likely to stay up than go down (15/8 currently), joint 4th most likely to be relegated with Everton and rated considerably less likely than Bournemouth, Forest and Wolves.

And now 1.02 - stick a fork in it, it's done.

Just matched at 1.12 on Betfair to be next Saints manager - if he IS a smokescreen it is one of truly epic proportions.

Nathan Jones seems like a gamble and one I have no idea whether it will work out. For those, and there seem to be many, who know that we are now "100 % down" you can still get (at least) 2/1 against that happening on Betfair.

Salisu and ABK is our no1 partnership imo.

With Lavia and maybe even ABK back I think we'll be very competitive. That seems to put me in a minority as a thumping Newcastle win seems inevitable according to most on here. I would point out to those people that a Newcastle win is currently around Evens on Betfair but history tells me that gets three responses - A) If Newcastle do win we hear about their bets AFTERWARDS....B) "Couldn't bet against my own team" - despite the fact that wouldn't have any bearing on the result of course....C) It is just ignored as these people don't REALLY think a Newcastle win is inevitable they just like to blow a lot of froth and hot air.

Out to 3/1 after the win at Bournemouth.