tisspahars

Somebody keeps putting up requests to back him at odds on on Betfair so someone at least THINKS they know it's him....

Someone has just wiped out ALL of the money available to back Hughes as next manager to go on Betfair - including the stuff at 1/10.....

Market closed.

POST SWANSEA UPDATE - We appear to have drifted a little out to around 190/1 to be relegated - GTFI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am with most people that we very probably need to win tonight and that should absolutely be our aim, however........if it was a draw tonight and the positions were reversed, how many Saints fans would be thinking "Yes!! We're staying up!! We'll definitely beat Stoke and there is no chance of them getting anything against City"? Not many i'd say....

POST EVERTON UPDATE - Market still settling down after an awful lot has happened today but we're around 6/4 for the drop. Not that anyone needs telling how crucial that hammer blow at the end was but it looks like we would have been about 7/1 to go down had it not gone in.

......my gut feeling is that this makes it on to the podium of the most impossible to take goals Saints have conceded in my lifetime.

Absolutely true - however........if you disregarded the points situation relative to us and were offered a choice between Stoke having everything or nothing to play for against Swansea you would pick the former.

Stoke v Palace first up. The obvious assumption is that we want Stoke to lose but......even if they win their last two they only get to 36 points which we will probably need to stay up anyway and if they win today Swansea's last game suddenly gets a hell of a lot tougher.

Or, in the real world......Betfair odds are the only really relevant ones as they are close to a 100% book and therefore represent by far the most realistic position. It is a free market and as such any "stupid" prices are quickly hoovered up until the market is at its rightful place.

I've always used the Betfair exchange price for this thread, Waylander.

An annual source of debate in the gambling community, Bexy where teams are priced up on the fact they need the win rather than the likelihood the formbook has of them getting it. Obviously over time these go both ways and after the match there will be people saying either "Thanks for the easy money on Everton, how the hell were Saints favourites?" or "Saints should have been odds on never mind favourites, Everton had nothing to play for and it showed".

POST BOURNEMOUTH UPDATE - A cracking day (in what feels like the first time in forever) with not only our win but other results seeing us all the way out to 11/8 to go down.

Actually the perfect result for us imo - even if they win their last two we finish above them with another 7 points and if we didn't get 7 points we would be down anyway. On top of that they may now have something to play for on the last day against Swansea which may prove very helpful.

Those are with the traditional bookies where the odds are always shorter, for this thread I have always used the Betfair exchange price.

Yes, it is shorter but not that much shorter hence my comment that the market is less definitive than the forum.

......and with a night to chew on it back to 1/2 so little difference from prior to kick off last night whereas the feeling on the forum seems to be that we are way way more likely to go than we were pre match.

POST LEICESTER UPDATE - 4/9 from 4/7 to go down so the market a little less certain than the forum that this was the definitive nail.

As an aside all those that "just knew" Chelsea would turn it around when Giroud came on could have backed them at at least 33/1 yesterday (probably more I wasn't glued to the screen all game). In addition Saints could have been layed at 1/5 (and likewise probably less).

POST CHELSEA UPDATE - Well, we were all the way out to about 5/2 just before Giroud scored his first.....but what followed both at St Mary's and late on in Huddersfield sees us crashing all the way to 4/7 for the drop and given the way the table looks tonight most people would say that's value.

Maybe you could try re-reading the sentence you have just reposted?

POST ARSENAL UPDATE - forum split between those feeling more upbeat after a much improved display and those who think everything is irrelevant except the lack of any points. Betfair market has us into 11/10 for relegation.

After the Stoke result we have just been matched at bigger than 6/4 on Betfair to go down, a price that seems decidedly big to me and i'm guessing to a fair few on here mind boggling.

I would say we should be a shade of odds on to go down rather than a shade of odds against.

POST WEST HAM UPDATE - Unsurprisingly after that debacle the mood on here is absolutely forlorn. More surprisingly (asonishingly to some i'm guessing) we are still odds against to go down at around 11/10.