Irish National
Key Stats :
All of the last ten winners had Official Ratings between 121 and 136. Six of those were rated from 130 to 136.
All of the last ten winners had previously run in a Chase worth at least £45000.
All of the last ten winners had won over three miles or more.
All of the last ten winners had run less than 13 times over fences.
Nine of the last ten winners carried 10 stone 12 lb or less.
Nine of the last ten winners were aged nine or younger. Two were nine, three were eight and four were seven.
Nine of the last ten winners were either in their first or second season as Chasers.
Nine of the last ten winners had run within two months of the race.
Seven of the last ten winners won or were placed on either of their last two starts, three won last time out.
Willie Mullins has never won the race.
None of the last ten winners were favourites, with only two placing.
Nine of the last ten winners were priced 10/1 or greater with three winning at 33/1.
However, in a field of 30 of course anything is possible, I think these will run well at decent prices:
Alpha Ridge (10/1 at Totesport) - Yet to win in six attempts over fences, four under rules and two in Points. However he has shaped as though a dour staying test will bring him into his own and he relishes the mud. Very progressive as a hurdler in recent seasons, winning five of his ten starts, and early indications are that he is likely to prove just as effective over fences. Makes his handicap debut in this race from mark of 135 and the form of his second in the Drinmore Novice Chase over 20 furlongs here in December suggests that could be lenient if, as expected, he finds plenty of further improvement granted this severe stamina test. The yard are in fair form and the selection appears to be their first string on jockey bookings.
Across The Bay ( 25/1 at Ladbrokes) - A speculative choice in as much as that he is a young inexperienced horse who may find this race coming a bit early in his Chase career. This is only his third start over fences but he won on his Chase debut over 19 furlongs at Navan in heavy ground before failing narrowly to give Jendali six pounds stepped up to three miles at the same track. That form was franked by the winner in the Powers Gold Cup today, albeit a little fortunately. He moves into handicap company on an initial mark of 131, which looks more than generous, and he is far from exposed under conditions he gives every indication will suit. He represents a top yard who are in very good form and, with today's jockey up, have an 18% strike rate in recent seasons.
Ambobo ( 28/1 at Bet365) - The stats say he is a bit high in the weights and a bit too old ideally and he is seven pounds above his last winning mark over fences. However that win came over Vic Venturi in a very good quality, competitive handicap chase at Punchestown. That race followed his effort in this race last year where he unseated his rider when making his move six from home. Most of his racing over the larger obstacles has come in big fields and he is still relatively unexposed over three miles and more. The yard know what it takes to win this race (their 2005 winer was also a ten year old) and their representative is likely to have been trained with this race specifically in mind. The jockey has a very profitable 12% strike rate at the track and turns up for just the one booked ride.
