chrisobee

A few more "mentions" : 3.00 - Lingfield - Green Velvet - Available at 8/1 (General) 4.20 - Nottingham: Broughton Paradis - e/w. Availableat 22/1 (Victor Chandler) Highkingofireland - e/w. Available at 22/1 (Victor Chandler) 4.40 -Cattetrick - Sonhador - e/w. Available at 28/1 (Bet 365 and Sportingbet) 5.35 - Lingfield: Eager To Bow - Available at 5/1 (Sportingbet) Desert Pride - ew Available at 14/1 (General)

So does Honest Broker given we've both tipped it

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/ Aintree falls just three weeks after the highs and lows of Cheltenham’s four day March extravaganza. But Aintree is not Cheltenham, and the vagaries can catch out the unwary bettor. Many punters fail to realise just how different Cheltenham and Aintree are in nature. Despite both being left-handed and extremely difficult to win at, the two courses have absolutely no similarities in terms of their constitution, and the commensurate demands placed on aspirant equines. In addition, as stated, Aintree comes just three weeks after the Cheltenham Festival itself – and it’s not as often as backers believe that a horse will recover from its exertions in the Cotswolds in time to win here too. Indeed, since the Aintree meeting in 2000, 74 Cheltenham winners have lined up and just 14 of them managed to win (a strike rate of 18.9%). This would have resulted in a loss of £16.08 to £1 level stakes at SP. These beaten ‘good things’ included the likes of Master Minded (at 2/5); Wichita Lineman (4/6); Samakaan and Voy Por Ustedes (both 10/11); and Rooster Booster and Captain Cee Bee, who were both sent off at 5/4. Luckily for the enlightened minority punters tend to ignore these facts. They latch on to Festival winners believing that – because the market suggests they’re tough to beat, and because they had the quality to win at Cheltenham – they have some kind of right to follow up at Aintree. The harsh reality is that it doesn’t happen very often at all, and knowing this fact allows you to gain a real advantage over the general betting public. So what is the winning Aintree formula, if it is not following Cheltenham winners at Liverpool? By sticking with in-form horses who are coming here unexposed, you provide yourselves with the perfect opportunity to find a big-priced winner or two. This aims to provide a very profitable angle to finding Aintree winners. You are simply looking for lightly raced horses who have shown form on their last two starts. Specifically, shortlist horses who finished in the first six last time out, and in the first three on their penultimate start. From that shortlist, you need to identify those who have run between 30% and 70% of the average number of races contested by runners in the race (over the same obstacle type as today’s race). For instance, if the average number of hurdle runs by horses in the Liverpool Hurdle is ten, you’d be interested only in horses who had had between three and seven previous hurdle runs. If you’d taken the time to find and follow these horses, you’d have bagged 24 winners from 164 starters, and a whopping £88.40 profit to a £1 level stake at SP. Thursday’s potentials are: 2.00 Silver Token 2.35 Al Qeddaaf 3.10 What A Friend 4.20 Safari Journey 4.55 The Nightingale 5.30 Maraafeq ******** Another shortcut to finding massive priced Aintree winners can be to ignore Cheltenham form completely. Every year, the shortest priced horses in the betting for almost every race had their previous starts at the Cheltenham Festival. And every year, about half of the races are won by those horses. But roughly half were not, and these ‘against the crowd’ horses have been hugely profitable to follow, especially over hurdles and in the flat races. How else could last time out winners be returned at odds of 14/1, 16/1, 25/1, and a truly eye-watering 66/1 last year? Or 16/1 and 25/1 in 2008? The rules for this fun system are as follows: - Aintree in April - Non-handicap hurdles or flat races - Won last time out - Didn’t run at Cheltenham last time out - Ran between 8 and 47 days ago That simple little ruleset found 11 winners from 113 runners (9.73%) since 2003, for a profit of £154.50 to a £1 level stake, or 136% ROI. (Note, because of the odds of the horses identified, the strike rate is low at just under 10%, so patience and / or small stakes should be invested in this one). One of the features of this approach is that you concentrate on runners who may have been contesting lower class races, as opposed to the highly competitive graded events held at courses such as Cheltenham throughout the course of the season. Such horses will be coming here without having to exert too much energy in the process, and will likely be much fresher on the day. Thursday’s contenders are: 2.35 Drussell, Me Voici, Nafaath, Super Kenny

Blimey, you must really hate Arsenal !!

Even worse news I'm on one of them ! Ling 2.00 Illustrious Prince : Showed promise on debut, racing slow side in straight. Duly stepped up on that when finishing 2nd at Newmarket. Yard has 3/7 with 3 year olds here and looks well suited by step back to 7f, nicely drawn. Nottingham 2.50 Quest For Success: Progressive type, shown consistent improvement since 3. Career best when last seen, dropped to 5f on gd/soft taking over smoothly and winning with something in hand. No surprise to see turned out for early season campaign in ideal assignment. Soft going no problem ( has won on heavy) and yard in excellent form. Nottingham 3.50 Opinion Poll: Progressive type who signed off in good style at Ascot under an intelligent ride by Dettori who is on board today. Strong traveller who goes well on testing ground and looks a horse firmly on the upswing. Widely taken to improve into a Group performer this term and yard in excellent form. Lingfield 4.00 Honest Broker : Has benefitted by dropping to 7f and looked a better horse without blinkers when winning over C&D last time out. Given time to come out of that and a 3lb rise in the weights may prove lenient.Yard in excellent form and 34% success rate with 3 year olds at Lingfield this term. Nottingham 5.20 Ermine Grey : Hard to win with but altogether better on turf and and potentially well ahead of mark now returned to suitable trip. 1 mile on testing ground should not be a problem ( won at Haydock on heavy) and booking of Jamie Spencer may be significant. Others to mention : Nottingham 2.20 Style and Panache : Jamie Spencer is again the eyecatching booking on this David Evans trained two year old fily. She was second on debut and is getting weight from her main rival today. Looks short enough though at around 6/5. Catterick 4.40 Fasliyanne : Trained by Kevin Ryan and ridden by Andrew Mullen this four year old fily won over course and distance in April 2009 and is now down to the same mark and can go close at decent odds of around 10/1. Nottingham 4.50 Ruba Dai: First foal out of useful middle distance winner, won on fibresand on debut and showed good attitude. Plenty of scope for improvement and should appreciate step up in trip. By Hernando, always likely to be a better 3yo and should find soft ground no problem. Kempton 5.30 Plymouth Rock: Trained by Jeremy Noseda and ridden by Ryan Moore this four year old colt was second last time out at Goodwood and may go one better this evening. Kempton 6.30 Better Be Blue: Quietly held back and raced by trainer A Carroll. Well thought of in yard as a horse who will win a race before long. Competitive race but well drawn, any market support near the off is worth noting. Kempton 7.00 Gracious Melange : By Medicean and another progressive looking type. Won over C&D in December. Likely to be well ahead of initial mark and fillies event ideal. The form looks good and yard in very good form.

Hants have signed Sri Lanka spinner Rangana Herath: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/counties/hampshire/8603728.stm

sports

mackerel

Carp

Cheryl Baker

Millwall

Ok, just to wish you on your way

In other words you lost £10

3.20 - Wetherby - Young Buddy 3.55 - Wetherby Akilak - Owned by Alan Shearer, never know what he'll produce but a few quid at 11/1 with VC will scupper any hope. Cast Iron Casey would be next best for me so let's scupper than one too ! 5.20 - Southwell - Granakey - ( sorry cato !) Grand National Just noticed Cerium @ 66/1. Too big surely for a horse that finished 5th last year with a fractured skull !?

Typical !

St Landrew had a thread ready to go !

Looking like this might be the match thread as well, not a Mod in sight methinks to "unlock" St Landrew's match thread!

Only about 10 minutes to go, never thought I'd cheer a Millwall goal !

Davis, Otsemobor, Fonte, Jaidi, Harding, Puncheon, Hammond, Schneiderlin, Lallana, Lambert, Barnard. Subs: Bialkowski, Wotton, James, Antonio, Seaborne, Mills, Papa Waigo.

Statistic

UB40

Good luck Kipper my nipper

What's wrong with you now !??

Across The Bay was eventually my main bet, 25's seemed too tempting and now generally 16/1.

Hugh Taylor is in cracking form, for today and especially for Kip : 2.00 REDCAR SALLY'S SWANSONG (16-1 general) 3.45 REDCAR STAR ADDITION (33-1 Bet365, Victor Chandler)