CanadaSaint

Yes, and they probably will. But the horse will be out of the stable and many fields away, and nobody (other than them) will care. If Saints appeal, it could stop the horse from going anywhere until things are resolved, and there will be a mayhem of uncertainty.

All the focus thus far has been on Boro’s perspective and Saints’ perspective, but the only important perspective right now is the EFL’s. They have to consider conduct that, of itself, is LEGAL (and practiced by many clubs) – unless it takes place outside a time window. That’s arguably the biggest conundrum they face – all the more so if, as I understand things, what’s illegal in the EFL is not illegal in the PL. So, what are they looking to achieve? They need to find a punishment that: Is proportional: As I posted earlier, the conduct cannot go from “legal” to “a capital offence” just with the tick of a clock. Removing a team from a competition, suspending a coach, or implementing a points deduction (especially one that would carry into the PL) would be excessive punishment, given the “legal, unless” nature of the conduct. Is legally upholdable: It must be reasonable enough to survive a court challenge - especially one that could take months or even years to resolve. Does not create major logistical issues: They must avoid any penalty that creates uncertainty about who plays at Wembley, and – potentially – which team plays in the PL next season; that would be a nightmare scenario. Serves as an enforceable precedent for the future: They need to clarify what happens to clubs that breach this regulation, just in case they need to address this again – whether it impacts a playoff final or a regular season match. The reality is that the EFL’s “path of least resistance” is a substantial fine and nothing more. That certainly won’t satisfy Boro, and they will carry on fuelling the media frenzy. But, even if we were guilty of the offence, the reality is that Boro created their own vulnerability by not taking adequate measures to protect privacy at their training facility, as most clubs have.

The writing was on the wall after about an hour of the game up there. They demolished us with a multi-player, highly intense version of Pochettino-ball. We couldn’t get out of our own half. But they didn’t score and then they ran out of gas, and everything changed. They were never going to recover in time to do it again three days later. This is probably why they lost momentum after Hellberg took over. They weren’t fit enough to play his style, and we know how hard it is to improve fitness mid-season. So, they didn’t lose because of some minor spying shit within 72 hours of the game. They lost because they weren’t good enough to win. #truth hurts

Thanks so much for this excellent post. I have a question about the quoted part because I'm not sure that just a fine for a well-funded club is going to be seen as an adequate punishment. This has turned into a very widely publicized topic, and it now arguably has a larger context than just Boro and Saints. This could move it beyond just the EFL ("Deviation from Established League Precedent") and into the wider football governance arena. As I understand it, the EFL is under the broader jurisdiction of the FA, which itself is under the overall jurisdiction of FIFA. It was FIFA that imposed the one-year ban on Bev Priestman, the Canadian women's team head coach. What are your thoughts on the position that Saints could take in the event that the disciplinary committee seeks to invoke that precedent? It seems to me that Saints definitely need to have their arguments ready for such an eventuality.

I agree with this - and I’m big on getting the ball forward quickly and using both touchlines in our attacking play. We don’t do it to the point of self destruction, like Russball. But done well, with the threat of clipped passes out wide, it’s exhausting and soul destroying to counter. It really took the sting out of the heavy press that very nearly killed us up there.

Nobody I’d want in Boro’s box right now more than Cyle Larin.

No Downes, eh? Perhaps the plan is to go at Boro (as they did up there), get a lead (like they should have done), and be ready to play it tighter in the second half. Downes can get excessively fired-up for games like this, and an early yellow could be very damaging.

If Gibson is deliberately fanning the flames by peddling falsehoods to the media, at what point does he contravene 3.4 himself? "In all matters and transactions relating to The League each Club shall behave towards each other Club and The League with the utmost good faith." I'm sure the EFL would like him to STFU while they sort this out.

Not just hysteria but wilful dishonesty. He bangs on about "lacking integrity" and a "systemic problem" but there's absolutely no indication that we've done this repeatedly within 72 hours of a game - that's the ONLY illegal version. It's notable that there hasn't been widespread condemnation from other clubs, and I think that's because most of them (at least, at the higher levels) do this kind of thing themselves - just outside the 72-hour window. If watching opposition training sessions was fundamentally wrong, there wouldn't be a window. And on the topic of the "harm" we supposedly inflicted on Boro, could there have been any if they deleted the footage so that we never had a chance to use it?

The EFL know that their decision will be hugely controversial and will probably be challenged in court, no matter what they decide. Their best friend is ANY precedent they can find. There are two precedents they could cite - the Leeds punishment (a fine imposed on the club), and the suspension handed out to Bev Priestman, the Canadian women’s team manager, who had full knowledge; ironically, she was born in Consett – about 40 miles from Boro’s training ground. My “reading between the lines” is that the search is on (“internal review”) for a head to reluctantly serve up on a platter. Suspension of the member of the coaching staff who authorized this would be a “sporting sanction”, just like it is for a player. I don’t see a points deduction – it would punish the fans (Hellberg had no problem with our fans or players), and it wouldn’t have any immediate impact if we end up getting promoted. Expulsion would be a legal gong show. My money is on a heavy fine and someone on the coaching staff getting suspended for a year; hopefully it’s not Tonda.

Absolutely. I remember how draining "Pochettino ball" was for us, and Boro's first half pressing was like that. Let's hope that there's not enough recovery time for them between now and Tuesday night. Also, we have enough depth to freshen things up without needing to change our style and tactics. If Hackney didn't make the bench for them today, with pressure on them to win the home leg, he's probably doubtful for Tuesday 🤞.

I’m not sure it was giving them too much respect as much as not expecting such a relentless, multi-man high press (so much for the spying 😂). Boro worked their nuts off trying to get a half time lead, and that wasn’t sustainable. Countering their press meant that Larin was isolated, with nobody there for his 5-10 yard layoffs, so it kept coming right back at us. Second half, totally different story. Fellows has plenty of skill but he seems too lightweight for games like this; there’s more to him than we’ve seen, but I prefer Matsuki.

It’s a cretinously stupid thing for Saints to do, but - if proven - the EFL have to keep a sense of proportion and make sure that “the punishment fits the crime”, no matter how shrill the noise coming from Boro. Spying is NOT illegal, other than in the 72 hours before a game, so what we apparently did would have been fine if we’d done it the previous day; it can’t suddenly become a capital offence with the tick of the clock. Also, we did this once (no proof otherwise), and Bielsa’s Leeds did it all season; they received a fine – not a points deduction or a transfer embargo, never mind removal from a competition. If the EFL tries to remove us, it’s probably going to be challenged in court as excessive punishment. My hunch is that there’s a lot of teams out there thinking “There but for the grace of God go I”, and the authorities know it.

Not happy about it, especially as we’re good enough to go through without crap like that. But, in accordance with the league’s rules, we should allocate them 10% of a hedge at Staplewood for the second leg.

We lost a shit ton of holdup when Larin’s went off

Did they say Stephens was injured in the warm up?

We have a “tail wind” that I don’t think Ipswich or Millwall can match - our ability to both rotate our starting lineup and freshen things up with substitutions. That’s huge at this end of a long season.

The real value, though, is the fact that it isn’t an “either/or”. Each one is a totally different challenge for defences, and switching them at some point means a major defensive readjustment. That even makes it hard for opponents to game plan when they won’t know who’s starting until an hour before kick off.

This has always been the Achilles heel in Tonda’s coaching - either putting the team into “hold mode” or letting the players do it themselves.

Here’s the big irony for me: If Dragan put the kind of unwatchable garbage on his cable network that his team serves up regularly he’d have gone tits-up years ago. The announced crowd today was 27,000 but it certainly didn’t look that high, and it’s going to get worse. He has to know that nothing will change in the window, no matter how much we spend. It would just be slapping more lipstick on the tactical pig that SR have brought us. Any creative, forward-focused players we do sign are quickly sucked into the vortex, lose confidence, and turn into liabilities themselves. We just got our arses handed to us by a far cheaper team, riddled with injuries. With 27% of the possession they were 2-0 up. Smell the coffee and ditch your architects, Dragan, before it’s too late – if it isn’t already.

To “Yankee Doodle”: Sports Republic came to town with a lot of money Trouble is they brought a clown who’s not remotely funny The Rasmus plan was “pass the ball” - even when it’s crazy Right to left and left to right until our vision’s hazy Coaches came and coaches went - each one a disaster Doesn’t matter what we spend if we won’t move it faster Dragan’s money’s going fast, crowds are headed down His only choice is grow some balls and ditch that fucking clown

I’m trying to get a bigger picture “read” on the rollercoaster ride of the last two games. It seems to me that we’re in the mental transition phase between Martin’s painfully slow, possession based approach and a more aggressive style focused on getting the ball forward earlier. But the Russball mentality is so deeply ingrained that it’s almost instinctive. One of its most frustrating characteristics shows in the passing – even simple passes to open players. Instead of playing the ball ahead of the target, allowing us to maintain forward momentum, we still play it to feet and often even behind the target. Aribo does it a lot, but he’s far from the only one. Sure, some of it is an ability thing but it’s just as much a mentality thing. When we revert to the Russball instinct we look awful but when we make the mental shift from a possession focus to a penetration focus we look far better. Same players but totally different mindset, and the more creative forces like Dibling, Sulemana and Fernandes get a chance to show their skills.

That’s a lot of what’s going on here. As fans we just want to win the game. Juric wants to win as well but he also needs to figure out who he can rely on and who he can’t. Now he knows.

It’s pretty impressive that Juric has flushed the Martinball instincts so quickly - I thought it would take longer. But to inject that rapid player and ball movement up front is even more impressive. Long way to go but this is major progress regardless of the final score.

As many have said, we won’t know how good our squad is until Martin is nowhere near it. It isn’t top half but it’s nowhere near as bad as Martin made it. Hopefully we’ll keep taking it to United because they can’t deal with the pace and movement.