CanadaSaint

I don’t think a loan is a desirable for anyone. It’s a question of breaking the player/club impasse so Fraser can walk away.

I’d say that Fraser’s return is more likely now we’ve signed Ramsdale. He’s a perfect target for Ramsdale’s long, low out ball. That makes us stronger defensively (less farting around at the back) and offensively (much faster break). I’d love to see that.

This surely has to change how we play. Ramsdale is much more comfortable making an early, long, crisp pass to a wide man, but less so with short passes at the back. We surely can’t spend 25 million on a keeper, play to his weaker skillset, and outlaw his stronger skillset. Can we Russ?

I haven't given up on us getting Fraser back but I think it might be dependent on what happens late-window with KWP. I'm amazed that KWP is still with us because he's easily PL standard and not that expensive, and the collapse of the ABK deal magnified our need to sell others. We're currently using him on his "wrong" side, not ideal for him or us, which suggests that we were setting up for life without him. I really like Fraser's pace, directness (if we give him the ball when he's pointing the right way), and early, dangerous crossing. He's also a good "out ball" target - something we'll definitely need this year. The other part of Fraser's game that both surprised and impressed me last year was his effectiveness and reliability when he needed to drop back into more of a defensive wingback's role. If KWP goes (sad day), bringing Fraser back might be a good, cost-effective move.

Woke up today with steam still coming out of my ears. I posted yesterday that we’re set up to adhere slavishly to Martin’s style, regardless of the game situation. EVERY ‘attack’ is required to start with risky interplay at the back. I lost count of the number of times yesterday that we “recycled” the ball back to Stephens, Bednarek and THB even when we had forward momentum and didn’t look like losing possession. And WTF was the rationale for playing two strikers on the touchlines, negating our wingbacks and leaving us target-less in the box? It explains why his starting lineups include low-skill players who adhere to his style like robots, and have no place for creative mavericks who bring the attack-focused unpredictability we need. It’s no coincidence that we looked much better when he was forced to bring a couple on. The only positive I can glean is from the start of last season. Martin was forced to make some significant changes after we were whacked by Championship teams that found us predictable and easy to play (and coach) against, and after we were embarrassed by Gillingham. Fingers crossed for a shit-kicking at Cardiff.

We aren’t set up to “attack” and score goals, and “defend” and prevent goals, depending on the situation. We’re set up to slavishly adhere to Martin’s style, regardless of the situation. ALWAYS start with risky interplay at the back, take ages to get the ball forward so the opposing defence can get set, use our two “strikers” on the touchlines (no target in the box), and try to unlock them by over-passing in the final third. That’s why Martin likes robotic players who are woefully lacking in talent. On the good side we’ve signed a couple of players who aren’t automatons, and there’s Dibling. Hopefully Martin will permit them to show it, but I’m not sure his arrogance will let him.

Until we have a Plan B early out ball, teams can press us relentlessly without any fear, and every game will look like this. Still like to see Fraser back.

The challenge we're facing to find a new keeper is that we're basing our search on Martin's job description. That greatly reduces the number of candidates, never mind available/affordable candidates. There aren't that many keepers with the skill set to meet his "playing out from the back" demands, and even fewer who might be willing to join us, knowing that those demands place lots of additional pressure on their game, and could end up with hits to their reputation. As much as I like the way we play, Martin has to temper his expectations of his keeper, and make it clear that there are moments when "clearing our lines" is more important than ball retention. Arguably, we get better, not worse, for having a Plan B because PL teams will definitely exploit our Plan A. Now we're looking at more quality candidates. But the decision may not be Martin's. It'll come down to who's available as the window starts to close.

Overall I was quite encouraged by that. We were certainly not outclassed all over the park against a much more expensive, Top 8 PL team playing in front of their passionate crowd. Many of us feared that, but the reverse happened - we outplayed them, both before and after the sending off. We lost because the strengths of Russball are also its greatest weaknesses - we don’t know when to turn it off. We are very good in the middle 60-70 yards of the pitch, but excessive commitment to ball retention at both ends kills us. At the defensive end, we are over-reliant on our keeper to be the fulcrum. Bazunu could do that, even if it compromised his positioning and cost us weak goals. McCarthy flat-out can’t do it but is still required to, so we concede different weak goals. A keeper without those weaknesses is probably beyond our financial reach, so Martin has to compromise. At the offensive end we over-elaborate our brains out, fart-arsing around until the box is crowded and everyone is marked. Our most incisive attack today involved an early delivery from Sugawara, and BBD should have scored. Different game. If we end up selling KWP to help fund the GK and AMF we need, I still hope we’ll get Fraser back and use him on the other side. He offers pace, solid defence , and an early delivery - giving us that from both sides. And then we might discover that our strikers are better than we thought they were. For me today definitely showed more positives than negatives.

I know you’re into this stuff so I’d appreciate some clarification. Wouldn’t a book loss have to end up in P&L? And if it’s in P&L, why would it not impact FFP. Surely, “Previously undetected” doesn’t mean that it wasn’t pre-existing - it could mean that it existed but we didn’t detect it.

On a human level I feel really badly for ABK. But he’d moved on from us and we’d moved on from him, and now we’ve got to deal with the consequences. It’s going to be a long term shitshow on many levels. Obviously, it screws us in the short term because it’ll put the kibosh on some signing plans, but the longer term consequences are awful. A 12-15 million asset just depreciated to near-zero with one media release, and I have no idea what that means on the FFP front. Also, by calling it a “previously undetected” condition, Hoffenheim opens the door for our insurers to reject any claim because they’ll say it was a pre-existing condition. They really screwed us with those words. I suspect that this will end up being a protracted legal wrangle, with us having to take on our insurers and/or Hoffenheim. Doubtless we’ll want ABK back here ASAP so we can try to get some medical opinions to support our case. And we’ll need to find out if there were any “pre-existing” signs when we did our medical. This stuff can take years to resolve. What a fricking nightmare.

I fear that we have a bad case of “window constipation” – stuck with some hard-to-sell players because they were crap when we bought them or – more likely – because we never got enough out of them. That has been an issue with us for some time. Lemina always had a much better tune in him than we were able to get out of him, same for Onuachu because we never played to his strengths, Alcaraz has commitment and talent but no real playing identity, we haven’t been able to add an end product to Sulemana’s undoubted pace and skill (and now he’s injured anyway), and ABK’s injury proneness is as much in his head as his body. We value KWP much more highly than the market apparently does. If we can’t move most of those players out for decent money (and quickly) we’ll probably struggle to bring in the players we badly need. I’m not sure that loaning them out helps much if we don't have the money to buy, so some might end up in our squad. And another big question is whether (or even if) Ross Stewart can fill the striker void. That would put a ton of pressure on Martin to re-integrate them and start unlocking their potential in roles that make the side better. It's far from ideal but Martin views this as one of his biggest strengths, and that’s probably about to be really tested.

Oh, I'm not panicking. I think the first scenario is likely playing out - some quality options waiting for the right moment to arrive. But we're talking about some vital positional cogs and a shrinking timeline. The price of failing to bring them in would be very high. It's not just a quality GK and creative midfielder, but we need Downes cover (if that's not Charles); I have few doubts about Flynn's ability but I certainly have some about his durability, and we've really struggled when he was sick/injured. Unlike some folks, I'd really like to see Fraser back because he has pace and directness (we're going to need that kind of out-ball a lot more this year), he provides a good delivery into the box, and he was solid in a wingback role (reliable tracking back will also be more important). Some queasiness is understandable because time's a-ticking. It's magnified when there are questions surrounding key players (like Stewart, Fraser), and when we're not seeing much interest in the players (KWP, ABK, Sulemana, maybe Alcaraz) who could bring in the money to fund what we really need. I'll feel better when some of those dominoes start to wobble. But the longer this goes on the more I'll start wondering about SR's thinking.

Watching our sluggish transfer activity as we get closer to the end of the window, I keep thinking about two possible explanations for the apparent lack of progress. The first is that, while we’re genuinely constrained by some FFP factors, we have a significant budget and some quality targets identified in known areas of need, and there’s a lot of progress being made behind the scenes. However, for those plans to come to fruition needs some dominoes to fall – some of which are outside the club. However, a big domino for us is selling KWP at a decent price; I don’t think we’d have spent £6 million on Sugawara if we were planning on keeping him. Bella-Kotchap, Sulemana and Alcaraz could also be key dominoes, or they might be integral to Martin's plans; he's keeping his cards close on those three, so we just don't know. That’s all completely normal at this time of year. As fans we want things to happen NOW but we underestimate the complexities involved and we don't know the different permutations they are considering. The second explanation is much more troubling. It’s that Sports Republic views being a “yoyo club” as a good business model as long as they don’t spend big money on players who could turn into millstones if we were relegated (as we did in 2022-23). That would be a hell of a high-risk strategy – especially with their spotty history in the transfer market, the club's reluctance to give the best Academy products a decent chance, and the ongoing debate surrounding parachute payments. I’m not sure what to think any more, but I do know that there’s a massive aspirational difference between being a fan of a club and an investor in one.

Martin places a high premium on loyalty and contribution to dressing room cohesion. That’s certainly not a bad thing – especially when we reflect on the fractured dressing room shit-show of 2022-23. However, the danger is that you can overvalue loyalty. The danger magnifies greatly when we move back up to the PL. It’s one thing for Martin to plan on giving his “first on the team sheet” players like Stephens and Smallbone (and others) their chance at the PL level. It’s another thing entirely to assume they will cut it there when there’s little evidence that they can, and then base our player acquisitions on that assumption. That would leave us weak in key areas, with the window closed. Martin’s first challenge is to accept that reality overpowers loyalty when it comes to some of those players. His second challenge is to moderate his tactics so that we’re not so dependent on our keeper being the fulcrum for launching attacks - another Martin "principle". He was forced into that when Bazunu was injured, and we became much less reluctant to hit the long ball if things became too pressured back there. But we didn’t really have a long ball target to aim for because we weren’t built to play that way – mentally or personnel-wise. As much as I commend Martin for getting us back to the PL, I sure hope that there’s another “strong voice in the room” when these decisions are being made.

Absolutely! I’m feeling very queasy about the Downes situation, and the club has some hard thinking – and negotiating - to do. He fulfils a pivotal role – not just in Martin’s system but in the PL generally. We’re all aware of the stark difference in our results when Downes was not in the side, but many of us think that the 2022-23 season wouldn't have been as catastrophic if we’d been able to keep Romeu. It's crucial that we don't screw this up. We’ll only sign Downes if West Ham decide not to keep him, and they may not make that decision until late in the window, leaving us scrambling if they decide to take him back. Moreover, while I have no doubts about Flynn's ability, I have some reservations about his DURability. Romeu was built like a brick shithouse but Downes certainly isn’t, and he also dealt with some non-injury health issues this year. We've got wide attacking options coming our of our ying-yang but we're woefully shallow in this vital position. West Ham were counting on selling Paqueta for big money, but that’s unlikely to happen now. I think we need to take an aggressive position with them – make a reasonable offer and attach a deadline for acceptance. If we pull it off, sign a solid backup. If we don’t, start looking for a quality starting DM and a backup. Dithering over this could be disastrous, and we've certainly been known to dither.

Anyone else really impressed with how Ryan Fraser acquitted himself at LB? Better positionally than Manning, tenacious in his marking, and able to get himself forward but get back if we turned it over. I thought it was a bizarre change to bring Fraser AND the consistently-ineffective Sulemana on, and then play Fraser in a largely defensive role, but the second part worked really well. Big time credit to Martin for thinking outside of his locked mental box. So glad to se Stewart get back. He gives us the potential for a very different look up-front, and that's a hell of a curveball to throw at WBA's tactical planning ahead of the playoffs.

In an uncharacteristic moment of sincere introspection, Martin needs to contemplate the fact that he may well be the easiest manager to manage against in the Championship. Until he instills a second and much more direct element to our game plan - occasional early balls through or over the D, we'll just keep over-elaborating our brains out and falling victim to opposition comebacks. Mind-numbingly frustrating.

I'd feel a lot easier if Fraser replaced Sulemana. He's a more direct, offensive threat, but the main point is that he's far more aware of his defensive responsibilities. Bree's flank needs Fraser there, not Sulemana.

If I hear Martin say we weren’t brave enough again I’m going to fucking scream. We’re not brave because he coaches us to retain the ball with mindless over-elaboration. We spurn virtually every chance for a quick, incisive pass. We were done when Fraser went off - the most direct attacker we have.

It’s not an either/or though, is it? It’s more about having a second tool in the toolbox, whether or not the first one’s working. If opponents know we can bypass their press with a faster out-ball they won’t pile in and compress midfield space the way Hull did. For me, now that more teams are rumbling us, using that second option is the difference between promotion and missing out. Fraser is made for that tactic but the ball needs to be early and in front of him, not late and behind him.

Absolutely. But Fraser, the guy most likely to capitalize on the early out-ball, was sitting on the bench. One of their CDs was booked for taking out Fraser when we tried it in the second half. He’s perfect for that Plan B, but it seems that this kind of tactic is not encouraged.

The blueprint for our defensive vulnerability has been out there for most of the season. What makes it so troubling is the fact that we are so committed to playing out from the back, slowly and laboriously, with no Plan B, that opponents don’t fear our offence. It makes me think of this: https://youtu.be/T8XeDvKqI4E

We had to use three subs to rectify the consequences of a dreadful starting line-up, but it wasn’t just that. We had “Russball with no Option B” jammed up our own jacksies tonight. We couldn’t penetrate Hull’s press, and they compressed things so much that we were once caught offside three yards inside their half. But did we look for the early ball over the top to counter it? Did we ****. Until we develop that, Russball is far too easy to negate. This team’s strength is also its greatest achilles heel – Russ’s belief in himself. Tonight, and not for the first time, it crossed into arrogance. I don’t want to see Rothwell or Manning IN another starting line up, and I’d be happy enough if we don’t see Aribo and Fraser OUT of one.

Fraser is a great move if they’re trying to catch us offside near the halfway line. But they need to hit the early ball.