CanadaSaint

Yes, we have played quite well but the same things are killing us - no delivery, and certainly no quick delivery, in the final third. And ball-watching/marking space at the back. Davis is nothing more than a plodding journeyman with the lethal combo of poor concentration and slow reactions.

Davis is the most hideous marker of space we've got - that's all he does, mark space.

I'd like to see us use more of the variety we're capable of producing. Lambert's a far-post kind of striker, so Rodriguez should go near, with Ramirez finding the vacuum between them. Then we're set up to exploit an earlier ball - near, far or cut-back. But Punch is key. He needs to get the ball in earlier every so often. Right now, our front guys spend a lot of time trying to get out of his way, because he doesn't know where he's going next so how can they?

And then there's the Colocini situation. If he goes, Newcastle have a huge problem. If they force him to stay, which they probably will, who knows what his reaction will be on the pitch?

And, in Cabaye's case, unsuspended. That's part of their problem; they rely so much on Cabaye and Tiote - guys whose style attracts yellows and reds. When they lose even one fo them they've got problems.

I'm reasonably satisfied with our play in the middle third, although we sometimes lose our momentum with too many needless square passes. However, we're very good at pulling sides "out of shape" but the emphasis then has to switch to quicker ball movement in the final third. That's what makes opponents pay for lost shape. This is where we need to improve things. The biggest "sinner", for me, is Punch. He has a ton of tight-space skill but everything else closes down while he exhibits it, which is about 90% of the time. If he could master the art of the occasional quick delivery to complement his tight-space skill set, he and we would become a much bigger threat in the final third and we'd see more of our build-up resulting in a decent strike. Right now, "the book" on us is to stay tight on us in-and-around the box and let us fart around, because it likely won't come to much. IMO we actually make several of our purchases somewhat irrelevant by playing the way we do - Lee, Mayuka and (perhaps especially) Billy Sharp are all players that look best with an early ball.

Judging by your pithy contributions to this forum I seriously think you might have Tourette's syndrome. Even though I agree with your point most of the time.

My best buddy over here is a Newcastle fan - his home town team. His two sons (the apples must have rolled after falling) are rabid Liverpool and Villa fans. They all thought we'd struggle to stay "in the top flight". What I wouldn't give for us to stay up and a Liverpool free-fall!

There's nearly always a "free-fall team" and there are several candidates this year, including ourselves. Newcastle have lost Ba, and if they lose Coloccini as well they could be in deep sh*t. He's the one who holds their rather dodgy defence together. The Cabaye/Tiote propensity for red cards really hurts their midfield. I don't think they'll go down because they have a lot of home games against fellow strugglers, but it could be very close. If Reading's win against WBA starts a good home run, they could do themselves a lot of good in home games against fellow strugglers. Wigan have the fewest games against the Elite 4. Our five home games against the Middle 8 (Everton, Liverpool, West Ham, Stoke and West Brom) look really, really important. [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]All Games[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]VS Elite 4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]VS Middle 8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]vs Fellow Strugglers[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

lol

Brilliant three points but ... I'm bemused that we still farted around on the edge of Villa's penalty area when they have proven themselves time and again to be horribly vulnerable to the early ball played behind their central defenders. Our build-up play was very good in the first half, and an early ball through the back row could have seen us three-up at half time.

The 'tackle' on Ramirez was a borderline straight-red (over the ball, studs up, knee high) but Halsey didn't even pull out a yellow. The fact that the ball was arguably out of play is irrelevant when it comes to potential leg-breakers like that.

I thought Guzan was first to the ball and got the ball.

Given how loud they can be at Villa Park, that was a relegation crowd.

Unfortunately, regardless of J-Rod's intent, I suspect that he will now be subject to the unofficial referees' justice. It'll have to be absolutely blatant for him to get one between now and the end of the season.

I've moved West Ham OUT (they've already pretty much done enough) and Newcastle IN (close to free-falling and losing key players). Points Per Game Targets: vs Elite 4 - H 0.00/A 0.00; vs Middle 8 - H 2.00/A 0.25; vs Fellow Strugglers - H 2.75/A 0.50. TOTAL = 40.78 [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Pos[/TD] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Target[/TD] [TD]Actual[/TD] [TD]+/-[/TD] [TD]GD[/TD] [TD]vs Likely Strugglers[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]P[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]D[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]PPG[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]26.00[/TD] [TD]25.00[/TD] [TD]-1.00[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]22.25[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [TD]-3.25[/TD] [TD]-17[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1.38[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]28.75[/TD] [TD]25.00[/TD] [TD]-3.75[/TD] [TD] -5[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]24.75[/TD] [TD]21.00[/TD] [TD]-3.75[/TD] [TD]-12[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]26.75[/TD] [TD]21.00[/TD] [TD]-5.75[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]25.50[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [TD]-6.50[/TD] [TD]-25[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]25.50[/TD] [TD]16.00[/TD] [TD]-9.50[/TD] [TD]-16[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]0.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]27.00[/TD] [TD]14.00[/TD] [TD]-13.00[/TD] [TD]-19[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Anything we get at Chelsea would be a plus against our target. We have the best record against Fellow Strugglers - even after home losses to Wigan and Sunderland. We have the third-best GD in the group. Our bench today scared the crap out of me and we certainly can't afford to lose Shaw.

I thought he moved his foot to simulate contact, so it was a conscious thing rather than just falling over.

I despise it, whoever does it. Diving is an urgent candidate for post-match reviews and yellow cards - or worse.

In the context of the Strugglers League table, in which we're 3.25 points behind Villa: A LOSS would increase the gap to -4.00 points (Villa gain 0.25 points vs their 2.75 point target, we lose 0.50 points against our 0.50 point target) A DRAW would cut the gap to -1.00 points (Villa lose 1.75 points, we gain 0.50 points) A WIN would put us 2.00 points ahead of them (Villa lose 2.75 points, we gain 2.50 points) So a win would be brilliant but a draw would still be very good. The key for me is Clyne's fitness. If he's back, we reunite the Clyne/Punch combo that was a big factor behind our improvement AND we put Corky back where he needs to be.

When dealing with injuries in team selection, I'm not sure we pay enough attention to the theory of double-impact: Be very reluctant to move a key player out of his regular (and best) position to cover an injury, just because you think he might be better there than the natural back-up. By doing so you can adversely impact the team's performance in two areas of the pitch. Examples where we might have done this are playing Ramirez wide on the left when Lallana was first injured, and now playing Corky at RB to cover Clyne's injury. Ramirez looked out-of-place there and we lost the big threat he poses when drifting in behind the striker(s). Corky is too short on pace to play at RB, especially against fast-attacking teams with width like Chelsea (although Arsenal failed to exploit it), and we really miss all his work in the middle; the thing that saved us against Arsenal was that Davis played his best game for us, but he was (I fear) back to his normal standard today - albeit against a real quality midfield. I'm wondering if we'd be better to just play the natural back-up and try to handle the resultant challenges rather than move a key guy and risk adversely impacting two areas. It's not an issue for the big teams with quality-in-depth but it certainly is for us.

Ligament injuries are seldom much less than six weeks.

One of the few positives from today is that most of our rivals in the relegation stakes either have a replay to face or have made it through to Round Four.

We're not an early-ball team and he's an early-ball player.

Exactly. All I wanted was two things - avoiding injuries to key players and avoiding a confidence-sapping tonking. Days don't get much worse.

Just looking back through this thread I'm hoping even more that we sign a quality keeper in the window. If only to save us the complete forum meltdown that will occur if/when a Boruc error causes a loss instead of just heart flutters.