shurlock

Just far more than are actually involved. Exquisite strawman pal.

What about today's PMIs, huh? Hopefully they're just a blip.

Not sure we actually played anymore football. We just played a different type of direct football. We still got the ball forward early but tried to stretch the opposition with movement down the channels and in behind.

Lyin' Ted stitching up Trump was pure theatre. Vote your conscience.

Very true - services are critical to the UK economy.Note also that trade in services is subject to a complex suite of impediments that are more difficult to negotiate than tariffs - one reason why the exports-to-sales ratio in service sector is much lower than that in the manufacturing sector. Even the EU has struggled with the trade in services, though its light years ahead of progress at a global level, as evidenced by the virtual neglect of services in the Doha Round. The LSE article is interesting -I know one of the coauthors. It rightly emphasises the fundamental importance of distance and gravity on trade - an empirical regularity that is as predictable as night follows day; yet is completely ignored by the stone-age assumptions of Minford's models and those of other occultists.

Dear oh dear, Baldrick. So you have decided to avoid the substance, though its completely relevant as it has a bearing on the extent to which the UK can pivot away from the EU. I didn't deny that the share of UK exports to the EU will fall; only that it won't fundamentally change the importance of the EU as a key market. By 2030, even under favourable conditions, the share of UK exports going to the EU will still be 2x and 3x larger than the share of exports going to the US and the seven largest emerging economies. The UK may have some additional leverage but it will be trivial relative to the UK's ongoing dependence on the EU and the magnitude of the concessions you're hoping to extract. UK exports to the EU as share of UK GDP will continue to tower EU exports to UK as a share of EU GDP. But maybe you're a sucker and soppy romantic for underdog stories. No I didn't discuss the possibility of falling imports from the EU as the effects of currency movements are noisy, cyclical and much harder to predict than deeply established and slow-moving trade patterns. Anybody can play that game -one can easily dream up a scenario whereby the EU boosts exports to emerging markets faster than the UK grows them, weakening the UK's negotiating hand in relative terms (the likes of Germany have been far more successful than the UK has at exporting to places like China). But this is the real world Baldrick. Not a video game you're hopelessly out of your depth at.

Any reason you've excluded services? Not quite Baldrick-levels but...

Good Baldrick. You're unable to address any of my points. That clears things up.

Sorry this is laughable, Baldrick. Exports to the EU will almost certainly fall, though unlikely in line with 2000-2015 trends. Even under a benign scenario, PWC estimates that UK exports shares to the EU will still be around 38% by 2030. As such it will remain the UK's most important market by some distance. But underlying trends are more important than any particular forecast. For instanc, one little remarked trend is that despite ******** about how the "world is our oyster", global trade appears to be slowing. In other words, even if other countries grow faster than the EU, that growth won't necessarily translate into additional demand for imports -whether its for British tat or other countries goods and serivce. Ironically the one region that appears to be bucking this trend happens to be the EU. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1506.pdf. The FT talks about peak globalisation. Apologies in advance pal if it errs dangerously close to real evidence or analysis. As for exports to BRICs, I assume you googled that factoid and copy and pasted an old Telegraph article from 2013. Emerging markets weathered the financial crisis better than advanced economies and recovered strongly afterwards -in no small part thanks to an unprecedented credit binge in China that lifted regional economies and countries from Russia to Brazil, from Venezuela to Nigeria, which had been on a tear mainly by exporting commodities to the Chinese. However, that was unsustainable and the supercycle is now well and truly over. Keep up. Silly acronyms like BRICs are more likely to be mocked than treated as a glimpse into a brave new world. Excluding China which itself has slowed, the other emerging markets are growing at an average pace of barely above 2%, which is slower than the US. Just look at the recent fortunes of Standard Chartered bank, another emerging market cheerleader. And what does doubling exports actually mean when it is starting from such a low base? It’s not a million miles from the mug who celebrates having 100 times 0 before you break it to him that its still 0. The UK still exports more to Ireland than China and Hong Kong combined. Assuming exports to emerging markets grow (though see above), those rates of growth will slow as they get bigger. As a share of total UK exports, however, they remain a drip in the ocean compared to the UK’s established trading relationships, in particular the EU.

You're missing the point Baldrick: of course, u-turns are possible and often desirable, just some aren't politically feasible. Try explaining to the millions who voted leave primarily on the basis of controlling free movement that it won't happen. Rather it might happen in the hazy future if certain hopeful and stark conditions are met And you still think such rarefied claptrap is commonsense pal?

Baldrick, I hope Theresa May has a hotline to you so that you can explain to brexiters the u-turn on free movement and how your cunning plan will, might, could have long-term dividends. Basic common sense says your plan is political pie in the sky.

A bit optimistic Frankly while we're talking about hypotheticals, there's as much chance that China, the three Brexiters oasis of opportunity, will hit a nasty bump in the road as the Eurozone project will fall apart.

Because in 5-10 years the UK's share of exports to the EU is going to fall from 45% to 25% as the UK grows exports to other markets. That will give the UK the leverage to negotiate a new deal with the EU? One slight hitch in your masterplan, Baldrick. Trade patterns are like a supertanker - they are slow-moving and cannot be turned around quickly. This is especially true for countries like the UK that are reliant on services export sales. PWC estimates that by 2030 the share of UK exports going to the largest seven emerging economies, assuming they continue to grow and don't crash and burn, will still only be around 13%, up from 9% today. You only get to a position of strength if it's actually credible pal. In its absence the EU would see your endearing little gesture for what it is - the fantastical delusions and cheap talk of a simpleton.

No - it's complete gibberish because you cannot make any statements about the UK's trade deficit with the EU from the figures provided

And you say you went to the university of life. I have some magic beans I'll trade you. Deal?

That's complete gibberish pal - it shines no light on the issue at hand: the UK's trade deficit (goods and services) with the EU. Table 2 UK trade with EU and percentages of world total, 2000 to 2015 gives you what you need. http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/may2016#trade-in-goods-geographical-analysis

Are you sure?

It's not a myth pal.

£100bn

Will you be able to buy it in the club shop?

Probably lost in translation - the word menace in French means threat in English. Someone has translated it literally which is wrong.

Keep saying that - it doesn't make any more sense. You'll be saying the survey used crisis actors next

As I say this is an extension of their widely cited work on misperception in public life, building on previous work for the Royal Statistical Society. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx You don't happen to like the staggering levels of ignorance, so it's all a big conspiracy. Then again I could have gauged that from your contributions on these threads pal. #tiredofexperts

The poll was conducted by IPSOS MORI - this is just an extension of their widely cited work on misperception in public life. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx You don't happen to like the staggering levels of ignorance, so it's all a big conspiracy. Then again I could have gauged that from your contributions on these threads pal. #tiredofexperts

This still makes for depressing reading. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3742/The-Perils-of-Perception-and-the-EU.aspx