Lighthouse

Okay, everyone post your postal address on this thread. If t'internet goes tits up I'll send you all a print out of Tub Girl.

That’s not the same as saying cutting one cable will cripple our economy though and I never said there was, ‘nothing’ to worry about.

The idea of cutting just one cable, which can only be accessed by submarine, to crash our economy is a cool plot for a Bond film but I think there are a few more safeguards than that.

I understand that but with regards to the last sentence; why? What makes you think any NATO leaders, or their populations, wouldn't be willing to repel Russian military advances?

I disagree that the European public is that pacifist in all of this. There seems to be universal condemnation and horror at what is happening in Ukraine. I think a lot of people would want to stop them the moment they stepped into NATO territory. Also, it's not the public that matters but the politicians. How weak is Biden going to want to look in front of China and his republican critics?

Okay, just to be clear here. If NATO defends Lithuania with military force, what do you then think Russia's course of action will be?

I've no idea where you're getting these ideas from but just occupying Ukraine is going to be a massive economic and military strain for Russia. You speak as if they have the resources to take over the whole of Europe and that we're all too gutless to do anything about it. A Russian attack on the UK mainland would be absolute madness, even Putin knows that. He's not going to send his aging Air Force to take on a couple of hundred Typhoons and F35s, plus half the US Air Force.

With absolute fury, what kind of question is that?

So where do you think the West will let Putin stop? If you think he can just invade NATO countries and we will respond with relative indifference, how far CAN he go before we actually use our massively superior military? What exactly do you think is coming to our shores? Putin is not going to send bombers to attack the British mainland, that would be insanity.

Egg, hypo, I really think you’re misjudging the mood of not just Britain but the rest of the free world. Invading Ukraine - a Putin puppet state under Yanukovich less than a decade ago - is completely different to invading a NATO state. You speak as if Russia could just stroll across Europe at will, without consequence or opposition. They can’t.

So when Russia starts invading NATO countries, you think the British public will be disgusted if we act in defence of our own alliance? You think everyone in Britain wants to sit here, trembling in our boots, until we have Russian bombers circling over Buckingham Palace, then take action?

Why? Who’s decided that cancelled SWIFT payments, on the first day of fully fledged invasion, is THE defining moment of NATO’s alliance? This needs to be a calm and measured response which hurts Russia more than it hurts us. There will a lot of ongoing discussion about the best road to take. The Ruble is down 12% against the Pound in the last week.

It’s one of thousands of possible sanctions which hasn’t been agreed upon yet. That is all.

Which is why we will have to put military hardware in the Baltics.

Of the Ukrainians I know, two are Ukrainian speakers and one in Russian. I've spoken to two of them in recent days (the Russian and one Ukrainian) and both are sad, angry and scared. The Russian speaker especially was very upset at Putin, "trying to erase and rewrite our history." There's a big difference between being ethnically or linguistically Russian and actually supporting Putin. We are all English speakers, hands up who wants Farage running the country.

Nope. Try again.

Again with the weird, one way rules which apparently only affect the West negatively. The USA spends nearly $800bn on defence annually. Russia spends $62bn, only a couple more than we do. The difference is Lithuania and Poland want us in their country, whereas Ukraine certainly don't want Russia.

How often has that gone perfectly to plan? The French resistance, the Korean War, Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan, USA in Afghanistan, USA in Iraq, the frequent flare ups with ISIS and their affiliates in Syria, Lybia, Iraq, the Israeli situation in Gaza and the West bank...

I know this wasn't aimed at me but personally I see: Eventual Russian occupation of Ukraine and a puppet government installed NATO troops and aircraft deployed to bases in the Baltic and Poland. Increased and protracted economic sanctions against Russia. Stalemate and a new cold war in Europe, which ends one of two ways; Putin dies (either naturally or is assassinated) or is overthrown by some sort of popular movement. At that point Ukraine and Belarus overthrow their hugely unpopular puppet governments and the world moves on.

A sh*tty economy which is tumbling down the world order, soon to be 13th, a plummeting birth rate, exports which are 75% hydrocarbons which the world is moving away from and a whole bunch of neighbours who want nothing more to do with Russia and everything to do with the EU. He clung on to his last friend in Europe, Lukashenko, by the skin of his teeth, in the face of mass protests and he's scared they will be the last two dominoes to fall. Now he faces a long and protracted occupation of a country which hates him, an increasing body count and massive economic sanctions.

So he isn't mad, he's canny and shrewd.... but he will quite willingly see his entire empire turned to radioactive ash, for the sake of some Lithuanian farmland and pine forest?

So... his tanks can keep going until they reach Bordeaux?

If Putin were to launch an offensive on a NATO country, we repelled them with conventional force, Putin threw his toys out the pram and ordered a nuclear first stike against the West, he would be stopped. In that moment he basically says to every person in Russia, "you and your families will be vapourised so I can be emperor of Vilnius!" Then it's every man for himself, you've literally nothing to lose by trying to kill or overthrow him.

Again with the assumption that the whole nuclear thing is one way traffic. You can't simply say that NATO wont risk nuclear war but Russia will just casually wander into NATO countries without a second thought. That is a huge step into the abyss for Putin too.

It's not just the West who've had a disaster in Afghanistan. Boots on the ground, who knows but if I had to wager their air force against F22s, F35s, Typhoons, F15s and FA18s I know what my money's on.