Saint86

Definitely rode our luck in this game. But we were probably due some luck tbh.

First league win, and it really was an absolute must win game! Did it the hard way, but ultimately fair play to him and the team.

If you ever want to know which saints fans don't know what they're talking about on here, having a read of this thread is a great place to start. He is absolutely indispensable for us.

Also, what a great free kick!

Get in!

Imagine being one of our absolutely spastic fans that keep going after JWP.

Grim. Everton are shit, and yet they are still far better than us apparently. Likely finish with Everton scoring 2-3 goals as we chase the game and fail to penetrate.

Adam Armstrong and mara gave us so much more movement and pace vs city. Both taken off and rested during that game, both benched today. Che Adams should be dropped playing the way we are now, he just doesn't offer the movement or finishing required. Poor from jones really, he chose a the team and its a must win game.

Everton wasted a minute of that injury time with their own head injury, we get the ball back on their D and he blows after just 30seconds there. Pathetic. Basic things for refs to sort out.

Think (and hope) we hit rock bottom last week - both players and fans. A fairly large venting from the fans / and probably from the squad internally as well based on the reaction). The last 2 games have shown the players and fans what the team can achieve and the players will certainly want to grasp that and run with it. I think we'll in today.

This Gnonto kid at Leeds has looked sensational tonight, some talent they've got there. Leeds look like a team with some good players but badly coached.

It was a good interview I thought. Clearly listened to some of the criticisms and responded with some communication to the fans. Which is a good sign imo. If we don't beat Everton we'll still be in the mire. But they do at least seem committed.

🤦‍♂️ Because yes, if we replayed the chances, then every single time haaland jumps for that header he will miss the goal. And every time Alvarez hits that cross he'll slice it wide

Several examples have been set out above. Put simply, xG adds a nuanced way to interpret team and player performances, such as looking at the effectiveness of a team's attacking play, a player's finishing, or the effectiveness of a tactic / defence at nullifying the attack of an opposition team. For example, we had minimal possession in the city game, but defended well and limited city's entire attack to less expected goals than haaland's average xG for a game this season 👍. That's a significant reduction. We were then able to use the circa 25-30% possession we had efficiently to generate some decent chances and had mara (who statistically is a decent finisher) to take advantage of it. It was a good performance where tactically we were very solid and maintained a threat, but the stats show that city still had the chances and should really have scored - e.g. on another night city start haaland, and the Alvarez chance is a goal (as an example), or haaland hasn't just come on to somehow completely miss his header in front of goal. If you'd rather count all shots / shooting chances as equal then ofc fee free 😢, but there is definetly value in the newer statistical analysis methods. Similarly we should be targeting attacker's that have a high xG conversion rate.

Post of 2023 contender 🤣

I mean, there are games when its pretty damn close. But funnily enough, the exact same thing can be said for total shots, but it won't mean much if all those shots are from 35yards and easily saved... 🧐 You work with stats, yet you think that city's xG of 1.0 over 90min means they should have scored 2 goals? and that our xG of 0.5 means we should have scored 1? 🧐 okay... 😅 You guys that don't like the data analysis or understand it do realise that that is okay right? No one is forcing you to? Whereas I personally found it interesting that City's xG of 1.0 for the match was lower than Haaland's individual average xG per 90minutes for the season, let alone the rest of the city side. Clearly our defence and tactical setup was very effective.

JWP penalty vs Brighton was given a 0.76xG (as stated by gecko above). Alvarez 6yard dead centre tap in was 0.5xG. circa 0.15 for Mara's rather difficult half volley seems reasonable to me. It does add a useful statistical analysis to football - particular for overall team/tactical effectiveness, and for analysing player performance Overall it highlights what good finishes our two goals were. Mara in particular was super movement and a cracking finish. Djenpo as well is a very good finish/awareness. What the xG stats do show is that we did a good job in keeping City's expected goals well below normal, but that equally we had the quality on the day to finish whilst they were off form and didn't take the chances they made. Versus Brighton the opposite was true re finishing quality - But even though we were outplayed by Brighton, the score did flatter them.

Telling someone how many sitters we missed is a simplistic way of telling them our xG and goals scored 🤔.

I mean, this is the point. It's an average expectation of a striker scoring a chance. What it's saying is that on average a player can be expected to score that chance 50% of the time... With haaland, the stats shows he converts at a rate of 1.3 goals per xG (ditto ings) So they'd be expected to score that chance 65% of the time on average 🙃. The fact that it counts so heavily on xG is a far better demonstration of the threat city carried than simply saying they had 1 shot off target 🤷‍♂️. You dont have to use any stats, but it you ever look at (or quote) stats such as total shots, shots on target, possession, corners, clear cut chances etc. Then you should consider xG and others. That Alvarez chance was counted as city's clear cut chance by sky etc, saints didn't have one listed because none of our chances were clear cut - instead we had very clinical finishing - something that will now be recorded against mara and djenpo overall stats. People are welcome to ignore these more detailed stats if they want to. But it's dumb to consider the basic ones and ignore the more detailed and nuanced ones - They clearly give a more detailed view of player and team performances over the course of a game or over a season etc.

Agree entirely.

Yeah i don't the issue myself, but to each their own. The people that don't rate it must just not use any stats for games? Not even the simpler ones like possession percentage, shots on target etc.

Alvarez chance on circa 78/79 min, assisted by ilkay gundogan. Commentator was stating haaland scores it easily due to greater size / leg length. Alvarez got on the cross but sliced it onto salisu. Pretty much dead centre 6 yards out, bazunu got down low to smother the deflection. Notably the chart increased by 0.5xG at this exact time, which i think is reasonable as 50% of the time you'd expect the striker to score a dead centre tap in from 6yards... not including che who would absolutely do his best to pass to the keeper. The marginal increases (particulary for Djenpo's chance) reflect how clinical we were. Not many shots go in from that kind of distance lets be honest. A case of xG again showcasing its value in complimenting fan perceptions of a game?

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Good dribbler, poor finisher.

More than anything, i would like him to stop saying, "with all due respect", or "with the greatest respect" several times per interview / press conference. Its incredibly defensive and comes across like he has a complex / chip on his shoulder about his own ability.