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Thread: Coronavirus Discussion Thread

  1. #2301

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    The latest statistics suggest that someone under the age of 19 with no existing pre-conditions in the UK faces the following fatality risks compared to Covid19:

    ....210 times as likely to be killed in a car accident (with a pre-esiting condition it's still 69 times as likely)

    If under the age of 40 (basically all footballers), WITH pre-existing conditions:

    ....You are about 50% more likely to die by being attacked by a dog or being struck by lightning in the UK.

    Under-40s with NO pre-exiting conditions:

    ....about twice as likely to die from a discharged firework and 5 times as likely to die from being struck by lightning.

    Given these numbers, I think we can probably re-open the academy and possibly the wider club for all players. But we should probably bus the players into Staplewood rather than allow them to drive themselves, hire a metereologist to keep an eye out for thunderstorms and also ensure we have a licenced dog handler on hand at all times. We should also cancel any club celebrations of Guy Fawkes night and New Years Eve until further notice, in order to guarantee their safety.
    Some of those stats sound like ********. There have been 4 deaths from fireworks in the UK in the last 24 years. Are you telling me if the disease was widespread in the community we would get one death every six years in under 40s with no pre-existing conditions? And what do you mean by pre-existing conditions? There is evidence that being a fatty boom boom is a co-morbidity. There are plenty of fatty boom booms in the U40s. Unless you want to reintroduce everything you mentioned whilst banning any fat support staff and hermetically sealing all participants away from the rest of the community completely these are facile and silly points to make.

    FWIW I favour a fairly rapid return to some sort of normality with measures taken to protect the vulnerable and to ensure that non-Covid medical patients get the care they need as well and I would be prioritising that, rather than worrying about football, if I was in government.

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    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    Some of those stats sound like ********. There have been 4 deaths from fireworks in the UK in the last 24 years. Are you telling me if the disease was widespread in the community we would get one death every six years in under 40s with no pre-existing conditions? And what do you mean by pre-existing conditions? There is evidence that being a fatty boom boom is a co-morbidity. There are plenty of fatty boom booms in the U40s. Unless you want to reintroduce everything you mentioned whilst banning any fat support staff and hermetically sealing all participants away from the rest of the community completely these are facile and silly points to make.

    FWIW I favour a fairly rapid return to some sort of normality with measures taken to protect the vulnerable and to ensure that non-Covid medical patients get the care they need as well and I would be prioritising that, rather than worrying about football, if I was in government.
    the deaths from other causes are also age specific. Example: v few people die from fireworks, those who do are typically not under 40 (they will survive some nasty burns). Same goes for lightning strikes - the fittest are more likely to survive a hit.

    It is true that the C19 numbers are based on current deaths - so you might think lockdown has kept a zero or more off the death toll. Maybe it has.

    So far though, the number who have died is like a very bad bout of seasonal flu. That tends to kill about 10,000 people a year - but in 2014/5, it killed 28,000 Brits - not massively different to the number currently killed by C19.

    The number of people under 50 who have died from C19 is vanishingly small in aggregate terms - not far off a rounding error to zero.

    The average age of a death from C19 is 82 in a country where life expectancy is actually just 81.
    Last edited by SaintBobby; 22-05-2020 at 04:53 AM.

  3. #2303

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    Great stats. What about the people those low-risk individuals come into contact with?

  4. #2304

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    The latest statistics suggest that someone under the age of 19 with no existing pre-conditions in the UK faces the following fatality risks compared to Covid19:

    ....210 times as likely to be killed in a car accident (with a pre-esiting condition it's still 69 times as likely)

    If under the age of 40 (basically all footballers), WITH pre-existing conditions:

    ....You are about 50% more likely to die by being attacked by a dog or being struck by lightning in the UK.

    Under-40s with NO pre-exiting conditions:

    ....about twice as likely to die from a discharged firework and 5 times as likely to die from being struck by lightning.

    Given these numbers, I think we can probably re-open the academy and possibly the wider club for all players. But we should probably bus the players into Staplewood rather than allow them to drive themselves, hire a metereologist to keep an eye out for thunderstorms and also ensure we have a licenced dog handler on hand at all times. We should also cancel any club celebrations of Guy Fawkes night and New Years Eve until further notice, in order to guarantee their safety.
    Are car accidents, dog attacks, lighting strikes, firework injuries contagious?

  5. #2305

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    Are car accidents, dog attacks, lighting strikes, firework injuries contagious?
    Just as random. They follow the Poisson distribution as first detailed by Ladislaus Bortkiewicz.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladislaus_Bortkiewicz

  6. #2306

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    the deaths from other causes are also age specific. Example: v few people die from fireworks, those who do are typically not under 40 (they will survive some nasty burns). Same goes for lightning strikes - the fittest are more likely to survive a hit.

    It is true that the C19 numbers are based on current deaths - so you might think lockdown has kept a zero or more off the death toll. Maybe it has.

    So far though, the number who have died is like a very bad bout of seasonal flu. That tends to kill about 10,000 people a year - but in 2014/5, it killed 28,000 Brits - not massively different to the number currently killed by C19.

    The number of people under 50 who have died from C19 is vanishingly small in aggregate terms - not far off a rounding error to zero.

    The average age of a death from C19 is 82 in a country where life expectancy is actually just 81.
    These are additional deaths. There will have been a high number of 'flu deaths as well this winter although we won't get any data on that until later in the year.

  7. #2307

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    Seems pretty pointless to be comparing a worst example of a seasonal flu strain with a couple of months of covid numbers(which have also been affected by efforts to suppress)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    Are car accidents, dog attacks, lighting strikes, firework injuries contagious?
    No, but seasonal flu is. we may want to adopt a mid-season winter break in future to ensure that players like Danny Rose, who can survive flu easily, doesn't catch it and then pass it on to his grandparents. Can't be too careful.

  9. #2309

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    No, but seasonal flu is. we may want to adopt a mid-season winter break in future to ensure that players like Danny Rose, who can survive flu easily, doesn't catch it and then pass it on to his grandparents. Can't be too careful.
    Covid-19 is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate.

  10. #2310

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whitey Grandad View Post
    Just as random. They follow the Poisson distribution as first detailed by Ladislaus Bortkiewicz.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladislaus_Bortkiewicz
    What is that supposed to mean? Do you have any evidence that Covid 19 follows a poison distribution? All the evidence suggests exponential growth followed by a slow tailing off. That's not a poisson distribution.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    Covid-19 is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate.
    That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.

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    Vaccine .....

  13. #2313

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.

    If you are going down that route then what about the seasonal deaths caused to the elderly by the cold. Should we give them all a higher pension to help them warm their properties. the cold brings many ailments as well as the flu. The flu jab is available to all pensioners over a certain age. Also there are many others that through their health can get the jab. Stopping football will not stop people getting and spreading flu. Or would you prefer to have a winter lockdown for those cold months?

  14. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.
    For seasonal flu viruses we have established herd immunity and vaccines. We don’t have that with covid (yet). Covid deaths are high even with lockdown and social distancing.

  15. #2315

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    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    What is that supposed to mean? Do you have any evidence that Covid 19 follows a poison distribution? All the evidence suggests exponential growth followed by a slow tailing off. That's not a poisson distribution.
    The possibility of being infected by any individual encounter follows a Poisson distribution. A large number of events each with a small probability of success.

  16. #2316

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whitey Grandad View Post
    The possibility of being infected by any individual encounter follows a Poisson distribution. A large number of events each with a small probability of success.
    The odds of being struck by lightning / abducted by aliens etc. are reasonably constant over time. The odds of being infected by an individual encounter vary significantly along with the rate of community infection, which grows exponentially until suppressed (which may occur naturally or may be the result of intervention measures). It’s a very different event from steady background risks like dogs, weather, cars etc.

  17. #2317

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    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    The odds of being struck by lightning / abducted by aliens etc. are reasonably constant over time. The odds of being infected by an individual encounter vary significantly along with the rate of community infection, which grows exponentially until suppressed (which may occur naturally or may be the result of intervention measures). It’s a very different event from steady background risks like dogs, weather, cars etc.
    The figures are not comparable. One is a cumulative total, the other is a distribution of individual events.

    Not worth getting our knickers in a twist over though.

  18. #2318

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    It's probably worth noting, as an aside, that elite athletes are more susceptible to serious complications (due to reduced immunosuppression & pro-inflammatory response etc) IF they develop COVID-19 than fit, active and healthy people of the same age. Whilst they probably have the strength and youth to survive, long term complications are a genuine concern for any top level athlete.

  19. #2319

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    Watching some old Liverpool / Arsenal game on the beeb. It demonstrates how important bringing in the pass-back rule was. Really drags the game down passing back to the keeper all the time.

  20. #2320

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    Quote Originally Posted by Polaroid Saint View Post
    It's probably worth noting, as an aside, that elite athletes are more susceptible to serious complications (due to reduced immunosuppression & pro-inflammatory response etc) IF they develop COVID-19 than fit, active and healthy people of the same age. Whilst they probably have the strength and youth to survive, long term complications are a genuine concern for any top level athlete.
    Didnt seem to affect the fitness of Hudson-Odoi.

  21. #2321

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    Quote Originally Posted by Manuel View Post
    Watching some old Liverpool / Arsenal game on the beeb. It demonstrates how important bringing in the pass-back rule was. Really drags the game down passing back to the keeper all the time.
    Crowds were much better. Seeing Arsenal fans going mental at the end was a joy. Not one Korean phone photo being taken.

    I needed reminding that you never knew how much time the ref would add on. Added to the drama

  22. #2322

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    Quote Originally Posted by Manuel View Post
    Watching some old Liverpool / Arsenal game on the beeb. It demonstrates how important bringing in the pass-back rule was. Really drags the game down passing back to the keeper all the time.
    That was a great night. Liverpool hasnít lost at home by 2 goals for 4 years I think it was. They were a great team and Arsenal to do it in injury time to win the league was incredible. We will never see another finish to a season like that again.

  23. #2323

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.
    Agree with measures to reduce seasonal flu. But don't downplay Covid, the excess deaths compared to the average for time of year has been more like 60k+ deaths.

  24. #2324

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    Quote Originally Posted by whelk View Post
    Crowds were much better. Seeing Arsenal fans going mental at the end was a joy. Not one Korean phone photo being taken.

    I needed reminding that you never knew how much time the ref would add on. Added to the drama
    And the goal scorer's celebration after the goals.....no rehearsed silliness, acrobatics or miming, just running about and jumping with joy (whilst nearly kicking your teammate in the chops).

  25. #2325

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    That was a great night. Liverpool hasnít lost at home by 2 goals for 4 years I think it was. They were a great team and Arsenal to do it in injury time to win the league was incredible. We will never see another finish to a season like that again.
    My best memories of going to football are mostly stuck in the 70s/80s but tbf, this one's up there with drama (crazy it's already way back in the 2011/12 season)


  26. #2326

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    This is supposed to be a thread about Coronavirus and its implications for Saints and football in general. The political, "my dad's d*ck is big than your dad's d*ck," stuff has been moved to the lounge.

  27. #2327

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    13,000 cardboard cutouts...




  28. #2328

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    A Bournemouth player has tested positive. Don’t think we’ve had any have we?

  29. #2329

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    Quote Originally Posted by alehouseboys View Post
    My best memories of going to football are mostly stuck in the 70s/80s but tbf, this one's up there with drama (crazy it's already way back in the 2011/12 season)

    That was a good one but still think Liverpool Arsenal was the best, the top two playing each other with the away and second place team huge underdogs needing two goal margin and getting it in injury time of the last game of the season. Amazing stuff.

  30. #2330

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    A Bournemouth player has tested positive. Don’t think we’ve had any have we?
    Not that **** Jordan Ibe is it - hes been breaking lockdown rules allegedly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    13,000 cardboard cutouts...
    More vocal than The Chapel

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    A Bournemouth player has tested positive. Don’t think we’ve had any have we?
    Another at an unnamed club has also been detected, so who knows ?

  33. #2333

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    [QUOTE=Jonnyboy;2821033]Agree with measures to reduce seasonal flu. But don't downplay Covid, the excess deaths compared to the average for time of year has been more like 60k+ deaths.[/QUOTE

    Quite right. We've all noticed how the statistics are now being rmanipulated by government to suggest that the risks are not all that great really and people (working class people!) should get off their lazy arses and get back to work e.g; "the chances of an individual dying from the virus during the next year is no higher than their chances of dying from any cause over the same period" etc.

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