Johnson Paints Trophy

[dellboypete]

If you are bored with take overs/buyouts/purchases etc, Ive just had an email from an anorak mate of mine up north, which I'll copy and paste here..........

 

 

 

 

The FL's website continues to say that the date for the pre-draw for who gets a bye straight into R2 of the JPT is "to be confirmed", and that the draw for R1 proper will be either Sat 8th or Sat 15th (on SoccerAM).

 

 

However, a Google search links to a news article on Morecambe's site that says that the FL have confirmed that the draw proper will be on the latter of those two Saturdays, and that :

 

A new policy has also been adopted in the determining of the 16 Round 1 byes following recommendations at club meetings.

Clubs can no longer receive byes in consecutive seasons, so any club who received a bye in 2008-09 will not be eligible for a bye in 2009-10.

Clubs who received byes last season were:

Northern Section: Bury, Carlisle United, Chester City, Darlington, Huddersfield Town, Lincoln City, Rochdale, Rotherham United

 

Southern Section: Cheltenham Town, Gillingham, Hereford United, Luton Town, Milton Keynes Dons, Peterborough United, Walsall, Wycombe Wanderers

 

 

 

This season's JPT north-south splits haven't been announced yet, so I'll have a go myself.

 

Since there are far more southerners than northerners in the bottom two divisions,

 

- Burton should surely be classified as northern for the JPT (having been called southern for the Lge Cup),

 

- Walsall will probably be northern (as they are in the Lge Cup), rather than southern (last season's JPT),

 

- and one more southerner has to be made northern, so probably Shrewsbury.

 

 

Therefore I'd split it as :

 

 

North :

 

Carlisle, Hartlepool, Uddersfield, Leeds, Oldham, Stockport, Tranmere, Walsall, Accy Stan, Bradfud, Burton, Bury, Chesterfield, Crewe, Darlo, Grimsby, Lincoln, Macc, Morecambe, Notts Co, Port Vale, Rochdale, Rotherham, Shrewsbury.

 

 

South :

 

Brentford, Brighton, Brzzl Rov, Charlton, Colchester, Exeter, Gillingham, Orient, Millwall, MK, Norwich, Southend, Swindon, Wycombe, Yeovil, Sthmpton, Aldershot, Barnet, Bournemth, Cheltenham, Dag & Red, Hereford, Nthmpton, Torquay

 

 

with byes into R2 being given to 8 of these 16 Northerners:

 

Hartlepool, Leeds, Oldham, Stockport, Tranmere, Accy Stan, Bradfud, Burton, Chesterfield, Crewe, Grimsby, Macc, Morecambe, Notts Co, Port Vale, Shrewsbury.

 

 

So Leeds and Udders and Oldham have each got a 50/50 chance of going straight into R2.

 

 

And byes into R2 to be given to 8 of these 19 Southerners:

 

Brentford, Brighton, Brzzl Rov, Charlton, Colchester, Exeter, Orient, Millwall, Norwich, Southend, Swindon, Yeovil, Sthmpton, Aldershot, Barnet, Bournemth, Dag & Red, Nthmpton, Torquay.

 

 

So Brentford, Sthmpton, and Barnet have each got less of a chance (42% probability) of going straight into R2.

 

 

 

Proof that it's better to be a northerner !

[Hatch]

Your 'mate' has way to much time on his hands.

[eelpie]

But we'll get a bye if we're not registered.

[Master Bates]

Yey, a bye

[70's Mike]

Lets hope it is not a bye-bye

[Bourno]

Just pray for a buy!!

 

Seriously though we should focus on the JP this year as our main cup campaign as there is a realsitic trip to Wembley.

[ooohTerryHurlock]

Ive just had an email from an anorak mate of mine up north

 

 

 

Yep!!!!

[dellboypete]

Ive just had an email from an anorak mate of mine up north

 

 

 

Yep!!!!

 

Just to confirm, I just got another mail this morning with a tad more detail............if you're interested and still awake :smt015 :smt015:smt015:smt015

 

 

Oh yes - some of us care deeply about such things !

 

And John is correct : R1 is split into four - NE, NW, SE, SW

 

So the can't-sleep-until-I-know Q is obviously:

A) do the 48 teams get split into four groups of 12, and four byes come from each ?

or

B) do the 48 teams get split into two groups of 24, N & S, 8 byes coming from each, and then only thereafter the two groups of remaining 16s get split into Easts & Wests ?

 

The rules of the competition as published on the FL's website, just have a very vague "Where appropriate the Board shall arrange for Football League Clubs to be awarded such number of byes as are necessary to regulate the number of Matches" without explaining how this process is undertaken.

 

The fact that the byes have traditionally been drawn one week ahead of the R1 draw proper, rather than it all occuring in one go, might tend to suggest the latter model, giving the FL a few days to sort out who is east and who is west of those that are left. But that's just speculation.

 

Comparing with last year's bye-election results, they could be said to be :

North :

4 were westerners (Bury, Carlisle, Chester, Rochdale)

4 were easterners (Darlo, Udders, Lincoln, Rotherham)

South :

4 were westerners (Cheltenham, Hereford, Walsall, Wycombe)

4 were from the east (Gillingham, Luton, MK, Peterboro)

So that's not conclusive either.

Either A) was used, or B)'s consequence was purely coincidental that the 8 drawn from each happened to be split E & W evenly.

 

Looking at this year's groups and splitting them even further, could lead one to a conclusion that perhaps a "model C)" will be used : a variant of A), namely that the four sub-pots are created, but an uneven number of byes comes out of each, such that the end resultant sub-zones' pots are ALWAYS 8 per pot in readiness for the R1 draw.

 

 

North this coming season:

 

Carlisle, Hartlepool, Uddersfield, Leeds, Oldham, Stockport, Tranmere, Walsall, Accy Stan, Bradfud, Burton, Bury, Chesterfield, Crewe, Darlo, Grimsby, Lincoln, Macc, Morecambe, Notts Co, Port Vale, Rochdale, Rotherham, Shrewsbury.

 

 

 

if needing to be split E & W upfront, the north would be imbalanced at 11 NE vs 13 NW

 

NE : Hartlepool, Uddersfield, Leeds, Bradfud, Burton, Chesterfield, Darlo, Grimsby, Lincoln, Notts Co, Rotherham

 

NW : Carlisle, Oldham, Stockport, Tranmere, Walsall, Accy Stan, Bury, Crewe, Macc, Morecambe, Port Vale, Rochdale, Shrewsbury

which to maintain balance for R1 proper would imply only three byes would be coming out of the NE pot, vs five from the NW pot.

 

 

 

And given those disqualified due to getting a bye last year, would mean:

 

These seven NorthEasterners would each have a 43% chance of getting one of three byes : Hartlepool, Leeds, Bradfud, Burton, Chesterfield, Grimsby, Notts Co

 

and

 

These nine NorthWesterners would each have a 56% chance of getting one of five byes : Oldham, Stockport, Tranmere, Accy Stan, Crewe, Macc, Morecambe, Port Vale, Shrewsbury.

 

 

 

Doing the same analysis for the south :

 

 

 

South this coming season:

 

Brentford, Brighton, Brzzl Rov, Charlton, Colchester, Exeter, Gillingham, Orient, Millwall, MK, Norwich, Southend, Swindon, Wycombe, Yeovil, Sthmpton, Aldershot, Barnet, Bournemth, Cheltenham, Dag & Red, Hereford, Nthmpton, Torquay

 

 

split straightaway gives an even 12 in each, so four byes per sub-zone to leave 8 in each nicely ready for the R1 draw:

 

SE : Brighton, Charlton, Colchester, Gillingham, Orient, Millwall, MK, Norwich, Southend, Barnet, Dag & Red, Nthmpton

 

SW : Brentford, Brzzl Rov, Exeter, Swindon, Wycombe, Yeovil, Sthmpton, Aldershot, Bournemth, Cheltenham, Hereford, Torquay

 

 

And after removal of non-bye candidates:

 

These ten SouthEasterners would each have a 40% chance of getting one of four byes: Brighton, Charlton, Colchester, Orient, Millwall, Norwich, Southend, Barnet, Dag & Red, Nthmpton.

 

and

 

These nine SouthWesterners would each have a 44% chance of getting one of four byes: Brentford, Brzzl Rov, Exeter, Swindon, Yeovil, Sthmpton, Aldershot, Bournemth, Torquay

 

 

Is this in fact how the FL does it, introducing bias in the bye procedure to ensure a final balance of easterners and westerners for the R1 proper draw ?

 

The variation in probability percentage of receiving a bye makes this an unfair process !

 

Steve - I dare you to e-mail your contact inside the FL for clarification about such a level of trivia as to how the JPT bye process is implemented !

 

 

Philus Anorakius

[Pilchards]

Blimey gone are the days of number 32 plays number 6.