gio1saints

IF ( and it’s a big IF) we are considering a hold the ball win it in the air and score goals new centre forward option we already got one that might be worth a second chance. If RM plays to his strengths - in the more pragmatic style of the last four games in particular - it’s not inconceivable that Tall Paul could be highly effective- and surprising- to opposition defences not accustomed to players his height- I’m thinking Crouchie levels of being effective if you play to his strengths. He does not appear suited to the PB style of play that was our bread and butter all season but - who knows- we may have the South Coast Andy Carroll who for a time seemed unplayable and a world class CF. Scoff away but he’s our player and we don’t need to spend anything to try him.

I’ve tried to anticipate some worst case scenarios for Saints- and Russell. Long thread so turn away now if you hate these type of posts. Here’s one scenario : No wins by mid- late September and all this conjecture about if he will be poached to be overtaken by a “who will be our next Manager” thread. It’s not some amazing revelation that we will probably struggle - with whoever is in charge. It’s very very likely - but also predictable that an impatient and growing mob will not be able to control themselves or their anger- which will be directed at him. And SR. RM will take full responsibility as a Leader should, but it will be nasty and personal - as usual. This forum will be sick with the volumes of personal abuse being written. It won’t matter how we lost, the style of play or any of that bravery stuff. Or even if there are signs of improvement. There will be NO acclimatisation to the EPL time allowed. It’s likely to be instant results or out. That hypothetical scenario may not be too far off the truth, and indeed might be bookies favourite if one could bet on such negative eventuality. I ask myself is that what we really want to see this season? How can it be avoided? IF RM does not start winning immediately would SR & fans persist with loyalty? Flip a coin. Wait til Xmas probably. But some fans (you know the ones) will prob demand he’s out sooner. It’s a tough gig going up and even just surviving but I think there’s an equal chance Saints are going to make it harder if the chose to twist rather than stick with RM. In the subsequent scenario that’s he gone by Cmas or sooner we could end up with a three manager season: Hypothetical Manager #2 might be more of the same - a 30year old from Portugal, the Bundesliga or some obscure but done well lately La Liga team - and after he’s failed and is sacked a rescue mission exercise to recruit #3 Potter or similar might take place. Or they might go straight to a Potter type. My current evaluation ( subject to change and results of course) is that the chances of RM making it past Xmas are less than 50% - imo. Much less than 50% if we are averaging less than 1pt a game or much more than 50% if we average 1.5-2pts per game and are at top end of the league at Xmas.

The idea of Chris Wood, and Ross Stewart for that matter, is a logical solution to a very obvious problem. The obvious problem is that Saints are notorious for passing it around our own penalty area ( and even 6 yard box). It did not escape the attention of a number of ( lesser) teams in the latter part of the season and I do not expect it will have escaped the attention of EPL teams right from the start of this. We will get uber pressed and goals will be conceded needlessly. Without Gav in goal - and a less football more conventional orientated gk in his place - say Alex or similar- we are much more likely to go long. At present going long with our relatively powder puff mf and tiny forwards is essentially just giving the ball away - only Che is able to hold the play up- just about- at Championship level. At EPL level less so I predict. A more reliable basically bigger stronger physical presence up front would give Saints an option we do not currently have. Especially if they have EPL experience. Chris Wood makes perfect sense from that perspective even if he does not brilliantly fir other PB and future value football characteristics. It’s not an irrefutable case to buy Wood but it is a case to recruit at least one more in the squad with his characteristics now Che is Leaving - or even if he stays and not just to rely on Ross.

Regarding the GK situation. I’m in a minority of one on this, I think, but I remain certain that there is some truth in the assertion that the nervous pressure to “play football” in such a critical position as goalkeeper was negatively cumulative with Gav. Especially given his comparative youth. I think that this eventually dulled or reduced his shot stopping, shot saving, penalty area physically dominating and overall presence. The priority last season seemed always for him to play with his feet - pass it around - often whilst under severe pressure at times. Anywhere else on the pitch a misplaced pass or slightly short or slightly wrong or slightly sub optimal control of the ball and you can often get away with - maybe you foul the player who dispossessed you ( as Saints often do when caught on counterattacks) but that’s simply not possible for Gav in his six yard box without giving away a penalty. I know this is all obvious but what’s not been taken into account, imo, is the nervous fatigue / tension that this constant life or death pressure can create. I think his football skills are very high indeed - but currently that’s ( to me) obviously been to the detriment of his standard goalkeeping skills. And the longer the season went the more obvious it became. When Alex took over it was clear what a mentally fit more standard goalkeeping characteristics goalie could do for us - and those who argued that were he in goal earlier we might have got automatic may have an excellent point. Id like to think that Gav, and Saints, would learn from this and take that into consideration more this upcoming season. Asking any new goalie to play in that way - especially a young one- is going to take its toll. I’m not against the system- if and once the goalie has mastered it and it does not reduce his standard goalie skills, but at present it’s a bit hard for me to justify ahead of a season in the EPL when the pressure is even higher. Hoping it’s s work in process but I’ve yet to see a gk not do a mess in his own six yard box yet - and I’ve no doubt it mashes up the mind - and turns fans against you even though you are only doing what you’ve been told. Even the so called “ world class” goalies are susceptible. It might be a fatal flaw in the system.

Forgetting his history I’ve checked out AL’s stats from Brighton last season and they are hardly inspiring. He played and was sub about 35 something games but his goal scoring or assist impact was negligible. He’s not a defensive mf either. I’d rather give our kids that spot frankly. His heat map for last season suggested he occupies the attacking mf inside left kind of position formerly occupied by “that’s why we sing this song for Stuart Armstrong “ . Aside from the fact that there’s no fee involved all I can assume is that - if he comes - he is going to be on a much reduced wage and it’s more coaching than playing. He’s arguably describable nowadays as an older Rothwell without the goals or tackling. No disrespect to his clearly stellar and outstanding achievements as a player and England international when he was not 36 of course..

FWIW anyone poo-pooing a JWP link is really getting ahead of themselves. Yet again, like last season when were were supposedly too good a squad for the championship. We are about the worst or bottom three worst squad in the league according to bookies - before probable points deductions take place for LCFC , Everton etc. The 14 gls/assists last season - in the EPL - from JWP in a really quite average West Ham team are good numbers from Mf. If Will or Joe hit those numbers for Saints this year they will have had a very good season. If anything it would be a step down for JWP. His last contract- if he leaves West Ham, needs be a good un. Saints won’t be able to pay him big big I’m guessing - so I would not be surprised to see him doing something exceptional. Or come home to Saints if that’s how he wants to play it. Either way he is better than some make out on here. People with short memories of his service to Saints.

This is an example of the type of player I think we might be looking at: Wataru Endō. 31. Apparently now unwanted at Liverpool. Holding / tackling terrier like defensive centre midfield type. Formerly captain at Stuttgart and was Japan National team Captain last year. Klopp was not a bad judge of player and bought him for €19m. Apparently now worth is down to €13m according to transfermkt. You always get high reliability energy and professionalism from Japanese players ( and shirt sales!) so it may attract as competition to Flynn & Shea who already has EPL experience at a high level. And does not cost much ( though his salary I’m not so sure..- he will probably want a big PayPal contract at his age so it’s 1/10 chance comes to saints- but this is just an idea to show we need think outside the usual range of possibilities )

By the time we’ve paid the £20m for THB and the probable £15-£20m for Flynn plus the £3.5m for Ryan we’ve already done c £40m - for ZERO new players. Add in the new EPL contracts for c 12 of our best players (the ones we are not moving on) players and that could easily be another £15m. Suggests we will rely almost exclusively upon player trading rather than big ticket purchases. There may be room for a couple big ticket players ( I mean £15-£20m types) but I’d not be surprised if they don’t happen and instead we use free transfers for out of contract players that fit our personality and technical criteria as our primary source. Adam Lallana already fits that profile and I think he will not be the last in this window for saints.

Don’t laugh - but he comes back, plays ok in a couple of staged pre season friendlies ( unlike how he played in his final perf v Gillingham which was the final nail in his coffin) and suddenly certain European and English clubs might fancy a Brazilian CB for £7-8m. Nothing to do with him. Just how to make a few more mil flipping a player. PS. Not best player in the world by Miles but you cannot fault his charisma and energy to involve the supporters. Does not stop us conceding goals, losing matches, giving away possession in bad places nor win us matches. But on a human level we all like to see it - our players play with that passion. With him it’s natural. I like him as a heart on sleeve person though it’s v unlikely ( and unwise-but who knows what a pre season with us will do?) we will ever see him play for first team again. pps. Plus he genuinely feels he can take the ball and drive out of central defender and spray passes all over the pitch at will. He is Brazilian so he must have flair of course. 😂. Anybody who says they don’t like it when he’s chipped ball over a forwards head or attempted a cruyff turn successfully on same is not a real saints fan!

Good point. He has spent all season praising them, their bravery etc and keeps expressing his love and gratitude to every player every press conference. He now has to go from that to telling maybe a dozen of them or more that they are out. Add in how much he said it hurt him to drop Mara from the final match squad and the personal relationships that form the signature bedrock of his managerial style I think this aspect is gonna be super tough for him. He does not do dispassionate so to bin the players who got us to the EPL in favour of ones he considers better equipped - will be his toughest ever mental and head over heart challenge. Don’t envy him at all. At the moment of greatest triumph for him and most that squad some are effectively also at the end of their careers because of decisions he will have to make.

Learn to read smartarse.

https://x.com/saints_analysis/status/1796552064631267648?s=46&t=l5Q4mkKSxz5qdVtggXqogw Nice analysis of RM on X c/o some insightful person at saints_analysis. 😁

This👆 Its one of the advantages of planning ahead. Which we have been oft told happens at SFC. Our player targets, for if we were EPL, would have been identified well before time JW left. What’s missing as @VectisSaint points out, is reaction to new developments since then - and following them up through one identified person. The price and contract stuff is standard fare.

Not everyone shares your ( irrational) negative opinion of Ras.

£25m and he’s gone IMO - if it’s to Chelsea. Would be his last big career move and he would on way more money than at saints. Maresca is a fan and will know KWP can play the PB style. He’s perfect in that regard. Get rid of mudryk and spend the money on Kyle easy concept. Obvs I hope not and want him to stay at Saints!

I’m more worried that Chelsea will throw £25m at us for KWP and he’s gone fast as you can say “we are stuffed at FB now”.

Oh the shirts are gonna fly out the club shop “ Once Bitten” 😂 Maybe the attraction is that he costs £15 and they will chuck in his uber fare to the station plus a case of Budweiser - and some track suits. And is hungry. If we get the track suits as well that might swing it.

Cannot see that happening. I seem to recall being impressed by his pace strength and aggressive quality- at times- but overall I’d say his attributes mean he requires service - rather than he puts himself at the service of the team. A younger but expensive possibly lost a yard of pace and not won anything yet version of Cristiano Ronaldo is one way of describing him. That Might be harsh - but I don’t see that he’s the type RM - or the team- would fancy.

Like many I was disappointed with DB after some early promise BUT once we started playing less dogmatically the last four games it seemed to suit him better. His perf v WBA was his best for example. Might be contentious but the PB style can sometimes seem to put a bit of a downer / handbrakes on forward players with individual “flair”. Alcaraz, Sam, Sulemana, Sekou, all ostensibly skilful but none really smashed the championship like we thought they could (or should) The most successful forwards in RM’s system were the most disciplined and most workmanlike - Che, Adam and Ryan. This season coming up will he persist with keeping “ flair” players who rarely contribute in his first team squad or will he replace with more Ryan’s Che’s and AA’s?

Welcome back MLG! Noted Burnley did spend a lot - but it did not have the effect of upgrading evolving or improving them. Just buying new players alone for runaway championship winners Burnley, was wholly inadequate. Was it the players ( bad picks?) or was it because VK played exactly the same way as the previous year (and in the EPL they know how to counter it better than that’s years Championship cohort?) or was it something else or a combo ? I think what RM showed he can do evolving tactically in the last four matches plus ruthless player upgrading is the key to improving sufficient to be competitive in the EPL for Saints. Im beginning to wonder if not having JW around somehow gave RM freedom to adjust how we play- to winning effect. Add higher quality players and it could be interesting.

If Rasmussen has the influence everyone says in this regard I expect BIG and MANY changes. He is a firm believer in not resting on your laurels. Of getting ahead of the curve. Just doing what we did last year, playing the way we did, with the same players (see Burnley) is already bang out of date - so the theory goes - and will have been sussed out by the competition already ( also see Saints v the lower ranked teams that easily beat our system towards season end ) In order to survive and thrive we must evolve and improve and upgrade. That’s unlikely to be achievable organically ( ie our academy kids and some fringe players are not all of a sudden gonna be EPL standard- and neither will some - or more truthfully even most, of our first team squad. There’s going to be a lot of hard decisions being made. If RM got upset over dropping Mara for the Final I can’t think what he’s going to be like when he has to do that x 10 or more players pre season…and with no DOF to blame either. I think the right call is to spend and upgrade. The Romantic call is to keep most the players that got us up together in this epl season. But that’s not the right call. That’s heart over head. I wonder what will win when they have the chats…head I think and there will be tears…

As long as the intention is to groom him for management then I can’t see why Saints would not have him ( inexpensively) to teach him the ropes of coaching. His experience is excellent. If it’s as a player then I see little value myself. Does he displace Will? Joe? Flynn? Shea? Or replace Stu Armstrong as the one who can carry the ball a bit from def/midfield to attack? The latter is possibly what attribute I think they might most like with AL as a player because in Stu’s absence it’s only KWP who dies it well, Joe kind of, Flynn tes 1 or 2 per match or Jack Stephens but it’s heart in mouth time. Arguably Adam is better than those ( except kwp) at that particular ball carry skill. But other than that cannot see much playing justification. Unless he is super cheap in which case yes id have him but not if he wants big bucks.

I initially thought that too. They’re GD this season for a team finishing as high as they did flattered to deceive. Without changing Moyes I’d have them nailed in as bottom six next season. BUT in Lopetegui they have got one of the best coaches in world football for his teams not conceding goals. He plays ostensibly a PB game but he is Uber pragmatic about defending ( I think he would be an ultimate and appropriate role model for RM!) Dont think west hand fans will like the football but I suspect he will do enough to keep them up. And thry should be grateful. But they won’t be. Especially as they have no proper Stiker ( yet- and I don’t include Bowen as he is more an AA type). IF lopetegui does not start good though and he does not get the players he will need it could unravel for whufc pretty quickly…

It’s not out the question. Think he’d need to go manage lower leagues first earn his stripes etc. Both him and JWP have a certain look of Manager pre-destination about them. If RM can make it so can ( better players and equally bright), AL and JWP. NB not that I believe good player= good manager. And as for if Adam is bright enough I do not know for certain- but JWP has always seemed articulate to me and fits the bill for young English manager with international and all lower leagues plus EPL experience to a Tee..

via bbc sport : In an intriguing interview with Corriere dello Sport, Carlo Ancelotti explained: "I don't believe in ideologies like Guardiolismo, Sarrismo... I believe in the identity of the team." Since his return to Real Madrid, Ancelotti has more than ever focused his side on adapting to opponents, creating chaos, forcing errors, pouncing on them. Russell should study Carlo Ancelotti’s Uber pragmatism style and base himself and our play a lot more on that if he wants to win more matches in the EPL. Vincent Kompsny and Burnley are a good example of what can happen if yiu fail to adapt sufficiently. ( and yes I, Ironically, know that Kompany’s reward for relegation is possibly to manage Bayern Munich!)