Holmes_and_Watson

When someone said the other day that Martin had called him the best in the league, I thought they were joking. Not to slate Bazunu, but just that it couldn't possibly be so, could it? It came up again yesterday. I thought there must be some context. We had some stats posted about last season from Saint Matty 76 (I think) and they showed Baz at the bottom. I think they might have showed him as the worst in premier League history. Here it is (pinched from a rival forum, as we have no search function worth a bean) "Just a quick disclaimer that a few people are going to moan about this post so if you're one of them, please just don't read it. Nobody cares if you think it's nonsense or you can't/don't want to understand it, it's not meant for you. It is just a further indication of quite how bad Bazunu has been this season. The best way to judge keepers statistically is post-shot expected goals, as it actually takes into account the level of the shot being taken. If a player scores from 40 yards from a shot of 0.01 xG, it doesn't reflect properly on the fact that a keeper has a far larger chance than 0.01 of saving it. Bazunu has a PSxG of -11.1, which means statistically he's conceded 41 goals where the expectation is just 25.9. The most interesting thing about that to me is the fact that 25.9 is actually the 6th lowest in the league, behind just Newcastle, City, Arsenal, Brighton and United. 5 times who are a million miles further up the league than we are. This indicates that we haven't been terrible defensively this season, we've just been drastically let down by a goalkeepers underperformance. For comparison to the rest of the league, the next worst is Leeds (Meslier) at -5.8. It's actually statistically the worst season by a goalkeeper in Premier League history. Bazunu has also made 54 saves in the league, with only Arsenal, Brighton and City's keepers making less. This has him at a 55% save rate, meaning he's now almost conceding a goal for any save he has to make. We have had 92 shots on target against us, which again is within the top 5 of the league. The argument here could be that our defenders are constantly leaving him in situations where he's not able to make the saves, but that's why the PSxG number above disproves that point. TLDR - statistically we are within the top 5 fewest chances and shots on target faced each game, but Bazunu's underperformance is both the worst in the league by almost double, and the worst the PL has seen." In terms of influencing results, goalkeeper is the most important player in a team. Successful teams always have a good one. Having the worst condemns you to fail. " Our common sense was seeing this too. Our defence chopped and changed. There were errors. We'd lose by creating little, a defensive error that in the narrow margins we'd lose by proved costly, and relying on a goalkeeper with that 55% save rate. And we're seeing the same thing this season. Martin said “I've been made aware of this narrative around Gav. Last season has happened; you can't impact that. What he can impact is that he’ll be one of the best goalkeepers in the division for how we want to play. If I was going to look at a goalkeeper, I'd want to go and sign Gavin Bazunu. His mentality and how he's been, how he's trained, and how he played on Saturday - he can't do anything. It's a glowing endorsement. But highlights are "will be" rather than "is" and "for how we want to play rather than "for what you'd normally expect a goalkeeper to be excellent at" Presumably, our data analysts are seeing that Baz might be okay at passing it out from the back, compared to others. That his build may make him a little quicker to react under some situations. Things like that. And all what Martin wants. Because if Pep can bin Joe Hart for not being able to pass, we must be ahead of the game here with our passing 'keeper! And Martin can't get 80% posession, if the goalkeeper kicks it long or folds under a backpass (which Baz doesn't). But the goals go in from positioning, from just making the wrong decision (often by just a second), from lack of strength in the parry or in the save. I still think SR thought Ralph was a great fit, because they looked at figures over the term, rather than noticing that he'd been countered, and couldn't adjust. With Baz, I often feel it's the same. Too much focus on the data of an individual while the team continue to lose. They may be seeing improvements, but at what cost to the wider team, and our actual goals for the season? Especially, when there were plenty of experienced options available last term. Martin's right about his mentality. There's plenty to improve right across the team, and they often do Bazunu no favours. He's in a spotlight because of the importance of the position, and as the first person people look at when it goes in. He's had a torrid time, but is focused and committed. If goalkeepers were judged on having scowly expressions, Baz would win the golden gloves every year. But Matty's stats showed we weren't that bad in front of him, compared to what went in. If Martin sorts out our defending, to at least reduce the efforts on our goal, we can only hope that Baz's save stats improve. Martin's tactic looks as though it would mentally test any goalkeeper, never mind a developing one. I want all our players to do well, and for Baz to have a great season. I get the feeling it's going to be a painful journey, and at the risk of impacting our larger goals.

I'd prefer the obvious, and rarer communication mess up to the dawning feeling that every shot at our goal will go over/under/through/past our goalkeeper. 🙂 I hadn't even finished my suprise that one got parried, when it was back across and in yesterday. 😒

Thanks for that. Interesting to see that together, and hopefully as the season goes on. That late 5th of Sunderland's to be added, not that it impacts your point.

Hmmm. No facial hair, no pullover yesterday, no positional confusion, no obsession with any of high press, possession stats, front footedness, aggression or passes in a move. Now his power point/ playbook generation skills might be great. But it doesn't seem like he's a fit for us. 🙂

So, you do think he'll get better then, so it's down to only that? 🙂

If all it takes is a wiley old dog to unpick intricate, fancy football philosophies, then perhaps we've backed the wrong...um..dog (not horse as that would be mixing metaphors) 🙂 I think it's that we've seen the same mistakes already that's part of the worry. But yes, today was particularly bad, and we've got to deal with it and move on. All that team may not appear again, but there weren't that many new faces in it. Holgate, Downes and Mara making their first league starts I think. That they couldn't lay a glove on Sunderland is worrying (not to be confused with Baz not laying a glove on things, which although worrying, is normal) 🙂

Norwich had Ralph's tactic sussed too. They just weren't good enough on the day to capitalise on it. Other teams before that, may also have been going the same way. But those in charge, certainly ploughed on, regardless of what they should have picked up from Norwich, and went head on into Villa.

Yeah, when the team are trying for that 100 pass attack, it's natural that they would be slow to react when that breaks down, and they have to quickly switch to defend. Not helped by us often over committing players; frequently being out of position because we've shifted with all that short passing/ our fullbacks are tucked in to support; human errors from players not familiar with the system or even if they were, not being able to do anything about it. I think he knows the system, and it comes in built with a lot of the vulnerabilities we've seen. He's probably trying to get the players to play into it, so that they prevent those flaws being exploited and our strengths win the games. I don't know how well that worked for him previously, as I only look at where they finished. We watched some lovely football under Ralph. But when it goes wrong, it goes wrong quickly and badly. That was today. Mowbray knew what to do right from kickoff. He probably couldn't believe his luck that there were so many errors too. But some of those come from that system. We gave him a massive advantage. They knew how to pick us apart, and adjusted their game to suit, while we played to a possession style that we will play regardless of outcome. I'm sure Mowbray, when faced with a back 5 or fullbacks that aren't inverted, will know to adjust accordingly again. We will set out to play just the same, because Martin believes that overall, we will pick up more points that way. We can only hope that he's right, which is a lot to pin your season on, after a day like today. Deep breaths that he's learned a heck of a lot from it. Better he did it before kick off today, than after the game. 🙂

There could be legal implications if the club do that. Or simply that both couldn't agree to it. Both parties have agreed that Greenwood's future is away from the club. But neither admits to any wrongdoing. Greenwood stated " I did not do the things I was accused of, and in February I was cleared of all charges." The club went even further, stating "we have concluded that the material posted online did not provide a full picture and that Mason did not commit the offences in respect of which he was originally charged." The club saying that not only was Greenwood cleared, but did not commit the offences and, not only that, what we saw/heard was somehow taken out of context from the wider picture. Both parties may have agreed that Greenwood move on. But it's clear from the statements, neither think it's anything to do with wrongdoing. Both only admit "mistakes" were made. Greenwood may see it in his interests to keep his lucrative manchester United contract going until the end, at which point, he can hope to find more forgetful clubs out there, while having played football at a good level until then. Manchester United may see this as a way to have some of the wages of that lucrative contract paid for by another party. Both will be happy it's far away from Old Trafford. Had Manchester United acted to pay the contract up now 1) It may be perceived that there was wrongdoing, which both parties have said didn't happen and there would be a direct link form that to Greenwood's departure. 2) Greenwood would have been faced with finding a new club now, by himself, having been released by United as a result of his activities. He may not have agreed to/ liked any of that. This way, he's had the support of the United recruitment department to find him a new home (and probably next season too) and he can leave at the end of his contract, a couple of years down the road, where he can hope memories have faded. Not immediately from United with a massive cloud over him. Horrid. But the only thing these parties look out for is themselves.

Unusual for a club receiving a loan player to then loan him on, but I wish Holgate all the best at his new club. 🙂 McCarthy, Djenepo, Bree, Ounachu and possibly Sulemana would seem to be the most likely, due to limited opportunities here. Others would start to impact our core squad more, just as we've made some replacements.

Galore

Lots of good points above. Mowbray knew the flaws in Martin's set up. If everyone knows how to exploit us before kick off, then, in the end, it's another Ralph situation. That's going to have to change. Martin was tactically outclassed by Mowbray from the very first second to the final whistle. That's going to hurt, and we'll see how he develops from that. We repeatedly shot ourselves in the foot, in any attempts to prevent the flaws being punished. As mentioned above, no cohesion and little structure. Pulled all over the place positionally, and therefore unable to implement any of the good things about Martin's tactics. Vulnerable on the counter; passing with no forward awareness/ incision/ purpose; posted missing on the flanks, and without the central structure to support centre players having to move to compensate for that; the full backs did little to support anywhere; out muscled because since our passing game failed, we were in a different contest that we always lost. Lots of players having bad days, not helped by Martin, who sets them up that way and gives them those instructions. There's already a bit of pressure on the shoulders of Charles, who is going to have to deal with a lot as a defensive midfielder. Which is why some extra cover there, would have been nice. Downes/ Smallbone/ Stu/ Alcaraz et al can't perform the same function, from what I've seen. But there are a number of other issues too.

While fully expecting an unlikely MOM performance when we play them, I'm now thinking of a dream Hoedt/ Holgate centre half partnership. 🙂

Don't forget. Holgate's versatility could bring that level of performance to right back as well. 🙂

Feline

This is the second summer window in a row, my timing has been off. Last time out, I had written the post a few days before the end of the window, rated it expecting a striker coming in (those SR assurances) and Romeu to still be here. Oh, and like a total lemming I had upped my rating by one off the back of everyone’s 8/9 out of 10 ratings. My 6 became a low 7. This time, I had some of it typed, but then had to watch an abject performance, and hope it doesn’t come across as sour grapes/ panic stations. 😊 GK – Missed opportunity? This position highlights the flaws of SR’s approach more than any other. The desire to produce the next best thing, regardless of position/ experience required there. Also, to lower the wage bill, even if it’s a false economy, as panic buys are made, with players being frozen out. Bazunu had a torrid time of it last season, in a position always in the spotlight. Eventually, and well past the point of sanity, McCarthy came in for him. On the plus side, a lower division should give him some space to develop some of his game. On the minus side, there are fundamentals that, if not improved on, will lead to loads of the same errors. None of this is helped by lots of experienced, capable goalkeepers being available, but falling outside SR’s model. While Bazunu may develop, but we’re in the same position if he doesn’t, and that’s a worry. Lumley in for Cabalerro hasn’t made much difference. Fullbacks – Weaker, talent wise, but with more balance. While Tino’s talent is a loss, he was injured for such a long time and, like all young players, was looking like he should have been rested before he got injured. I liked the style and on field attitude of Perraud. It doesn’t seem like his style fits the new tactic and he wanted away anyway. Manning is a better fit for Martin, so has to be seen as a plus for the season. But then Bree was a plus under Jones’ tactic, so it doesn’t count for much sometimes. Keeping KWP is a big plus for our season. Perraud and Livramento out/ Manning in. Centre Back – Lost talent, but hopefully all the attitude with it. I thought at first that we had a lot of talent there last season. As the season went on, we saw the character/ flaws of a number of them, resulting in a lot of chopping and changing. None of Salisu, DCC, ABK or Lyanco could consistently perform near their best for a variety of reasons. Stephens returns, when he was well down that pecking order. Bednarek, who couldn’t wait to join Villa and put his international career ahead of the people who pay his wages also stayed. Annoying prone to wave hands around and shout after making errors. I thought he’d be one to go. We bring in a very promising youngster and Holgate, who I last heard of not doing that well at ,admittedly a basket case club, following a good spell. Stephens’ injury means that it’s going to take a bit longer for partnerships to build. With the way Martin plays his full-backs, this is really key. The leakiest defence to get automatic promotion in the last 19 years was 58, back in 2010/11. The average across the automatic places for that period is 42. We’ve already conceded 12 in 5 games. it won;t be our defeinsive record that takes us up, at this rate. Martin is going to have to be rapidly improving that Plan A, or our players ability to work within it. Midfield – Clearout, and Martin has to be able to pick the best 3 out of the new group that needs to gel. We missed Romeu a lot last season. With the departure of our best player, in JWP, Lavia and Diallo, this was pretty much a complete clear out. Martin seems to be a bit more fluid with a 3 here. Charles is already looking like an important replacement, with Downes another starter. It would seem to be a pick between Alcaraz/ Stu/ Aribo for a more attacking option here. Even AA has dropped back, where his hard work benefits both our defence and attack. Smallbone looked good alongside JWP. But he will have to adapt to play with the others, as JWP did a lot of things across a number of roles. It could be either him or Downes, but not both, after the Sunderland performance. I thought Stu or Aribo would also leave here. Thee’s plenty of competition for places. But I think we could have lost one of the attacking ones to give more cover for Charles. Attack- Clearer options, lots of depth, just need to find the balance. Lots of options. But it could be a bit lop-sided, depending on who really will be Tella’s replacement. We had a nice balance with the dribbling Edozie on the left and the more direct, second forward Tella on the right. Despite only returning from loan, Tella’s feels a bit of a loss. Fraser coming in is a plus though. While Walcott offered bright moments last season, there was no way he’d be staying and SR will be glad he, Orsic and Mo have left the wage bill. Mara didn’t do enough there against Sunderland, and should be more central anyway. SAA isn’t going to be playing there all season, at his age. We’ll have to see how much commitment Sulemana shows, but he could be really important. Fraser is the most accomplished person we’ve got for the wider attacking positions. Although AA and Stu would also provide lots of options for balance. Up front, we desperately needed to get someone in. If Che had gone, we would really have needed 2. Sadly, Ounachu didn’t find a new home. But we did still manage to bring in Stewart. Outside of youtube, I’ve not seen much of him. So, I can only hope he’s a championship striker who can do as well as Che and AA at this level, and hopefully more as we go on. Che and AA have already found some form. Both stayed in the end and seem professional. Bringing in an injured player may not be much of an immediate strengthen, but it was a really low bar. The average goals for over the last 19 years, in the top 2 spots, has been just over 78, with 6 teams getting 90 or above. With Martin’s defensive track record, and formation, we have to be looking at high numbers here. Manager – Promising start, but with expectations and clear gaps to close. Hopefully, Martin will be a massive success for us. While the interviews are always interesting, it’s the results that count. And the aim has to be promotion. Martin’s mid table Swansea finishes, under different circumstances, have to develop into a promotion clinching finish. There’s always a worry around managers with a focused football philosophy, that once it’s adapted to, it becomes too inflexible and fails. Martin will have seen plenty of warnings of this already, even as he improves his players into fitting it. Overall – SR have done a lot well. They’ve stood their ground on valuations. They’ve been conscious of the squad size, while still trying to replace key departures. After the terrible January window, and relegation, they’ve not gone overboard, combining highly rated talent, with some experience and better use of loans. We’re weaker on talent, which is no surprise after relegation. But it’s no loss to lose players who weren’t up for the fight, regardless of their skill level. After all that, I’m in the same position as last season. 😊 Nearly a 7, but I’m going with a high 6. Which, considering the turmoil is not half bad. Goalkeeper a worry, still look a little light in defensive midfield, could probably have done with a tella replacement and a new manager philosophy to embed. We’ll see how the squad gel under Martin’s tactics. SR would get higher, if it was just dealing with departures.

Aribo gets a pass there. He can't run. 🙂

Baz gets a hand to it...so of course it goes in. Tops off an all round horror performance right across the team.

Baz stays big and does well there. Another one where the suicide defence in front of him really doesn;t give him a chance.

A spell of possession there. Lots of safe passes. Fine. Moving it around. But not enough movement to creat a better pass. One or two better options missed. Yet, after that when we do pass it, we choose a much longer, riskier option that gets picked off easily. Just undermines what Martin must be trying to do?

Baz isn't the only one who gives the ball straight back. A sad thing is that we've not really shown we were in control, or capable for any part of this match. Seeing Martin's tactic struggle through lack of familiarity would be one thing. Or silly errors. But really not many poisives to take away from today. A couple of minutes in the first half. A couple after Fraser came on?

This is the big worry. By that I'm not panicking after a game like this. But longer term, his tactical approach has to be flexible enough to handle various teams and situations, as we're not going to always have it our own way. How we adapt and react to that, wihin his framework, will be key. We were found out today, and repeated the same errors for a lot of the game, while also failing to impose any of the good things Martin is trying to put into place. We all watched what happened under Ralph, where all the good things were unpicked when other teams adjusted to his approach and beat it. Our current coaches will have to learn how to prevent the recurring errors.

Bringing on Impact Joe at the right time. 🙂

Mara givign the ball away in defence to top off a bad day for him.

The expectation for the season, with our resources, is promotion. We started strong enough to look to the top 2. Martin will have to step up to achieve this as, as you say he just doens't have that track record. This is an excellent chance for him to step up to that level. He did say there were going to be off days, and this is definietely one of them. We will get better. But we can all see how Sunderland have dismantled his set up. Everyone will be lookign to do that. And he will have to adapt accordingly.