chiknsmack

Had we not had Juric you'd be saying he's "good enough for Atalanta but not for Saints".

I threw together a 25-man squad with mostly the most valuable free agents (according to Transfermarkt) and it came out to €89.4m. That's around €3.58m per player, which in the Championship would fall between Middlesbrough in 7th and West Brom in 8th. The values of the free agent players would be depressed by the fact that most of them are past their prime and have no "potential" left to realise, so on talent it's probably a better squad than those two. (The average age is 30.6, three years older than any other team in the Championship). On wages they'd probably want considerably more than they're worth (a former Barcelona/Inter/PSG/Al-Arabi player with a value of €2m like Rafinha would want higher wages than a young prospect valued at €2m like Matsuki) , and most of them have zero sell-on value. So it'd be a disaster financially. A first and second XI in a 4-2-3-1: Or in a 3-5-2: A decent number of players who in their prime were well above Championship level, and who even now cdaj at that level (though probably not for 90 minutes a game and 46 games). If the motivation was there and the injuries didn't hit too hard, is that a Championship playoff side that could go on to get 12 points in the PL?

Mateus Fernandes vibes. A little older, a little less hype, a little behind on the path (Fernandes had a year on loan in the Portuguese top flight before we signed him, Jander hasn't had any top flight experience yet) but the potential for a similar outcome.

He won a lot of defensive headers. That was the first time I'd seen much from him to get excited about.

Meslier is no better than Bazunu. With Ramsdale still on the books we were never going to be spending up on another proper #1, and with McCarthy on the wages he's on we were unlikely to push him down to #3 and make him the highest paid cone-picker-upperer in Championship history. Ryan on a free made perfect sense to me, but otherwise it was always going to be a random warm body to be #3. If you're looking for a positive, some people want Sargent from Norwich and the fact that we've picked up a player from them means our recruitment team is talking with theirs. He's their captain and has scored four in four this season so I don't know what our chances are, and on the negative side I'm wary that no PL clubs have come for him so they must not think he's good enough (though maybe 15 goals in the equivalent minutes of 28 games last season wasn't enough; this season at 25/26 could be the one where he scores 25/26 in 35 and gets his PL move whether his club gets promoted or not). He required surgery last season and missed a couple of months, so he has the perfect injury profile for a SR signing. And he speaks American so he and Downes can help each other settle in.

Someone posted his name (and nothing else) earlier in the thread. Probably just planting some ITK seeds.

We did it in the second half against Brighton, and won that half 2-1. On that occasion the two in midfield was Fraser and Charles, with Robinson, Archer, and Armstrong the front three. Obviously you want Fernandes in there somewhere too, so that forces Fraser out. But Still appears to want Fraser on the pitch, so that forces Armstrong out. BUT Still also appears to want Armstrong on the pitch, so that forces Archer (or Downs, or Stewart) out. If you want both Fraser and Armstrong in your front three (I don't, though it seems Still does for now) you either play Armstrong up top or you play him on the right with Fraser on the left (benching Robinson) and a striker up top. 3-4-3 also only gives you two midfielders, when our best three (Fernandes, Charles, Downes) are all very good. The more recent change is to play Fraser at wingback instead of Sugawara, which makes room for Armstrong on the right and a proper striker up the middle. But that still only gives you two midfielders, so instead against Stoke Still went with Fernandes on the right of the front three (it was more of a 3-4-2-1 than a 3-4-3), Downes and Charles as the midfield two, and Armstrong up top. Personally I think the correct 3-X-X formation with the squad we have is 3-5-2. You get all of Fernandes/Charles/Downes on the pitch, you can play Fraser on the right of the five, and you play two up top (so even if Armstrong has to play its him plus another striker). Though the downside of this is that Robinson doesn't fit; he's not a striker in a two and he's not really a wingback. It's difficult to accommodate Robinson, Armstrong, and Fraser in the same lineup. Especially if you also want Fernandes, Charles, and Downes. With three at the back you have those six plus one other as your midfield and attack, and with four at the back it's worse (you go down a CB but presumably go up two proper fullbacks rather than playing Fraser at FB, giving you six spots for those six midfield and attacking players). The obvious answer is to not play both Fraser and Armstrong, but it seems like Still rates their workrate and experience. Maybe that will change with Downs and Stewart being fully over their recent illnesses and the Stoke performance being pretty average with Armstrong up top. What does a 4-4-2 look like? Well for starters there's only two midfielders so Downes is on the bench. Then your wingers are Fraser and Robinson with zero depth (BBD? Edozie? Sugawara? We tried Armstrong on the right of the 4 in preaseason and he looked lost) behind them. Robinson shouldn't be asked to play 90 minutes 35+ times in his first year of senior football, and if you were to ask that of him he'd have more of a chance on the left of a front three than on the left of a midfield four where he'd have more defensive work to do. So 4 at the back means 4-3-3. All three main midfielders, and a front three of Robinson, a striker, and someone else on the right. If Fraser and Armstrong are nailed-on starters, one of them's your striker. So the difference between 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 is that in the former you have four defenders, three midfielders, and both Armstrong and Fraser in the front three, whereas in the latter you have four defenders (three CBs and a defensive wingback), two midfielders, Fraser at wingback, and room for a striker in the front three. Basically, do you want Downes or Downs? Of course, all of that changes with an injury (If any of Robinson/Fraser/Armstrong is out the other two play alongside a striker and the full midfield three, if any of the midfield three are injured you can make the like-for-like swap and bring in Smallbone or drop Fraser into midfield and play a striker) or new signing (maybe a midfielder leads to a return of Ralph's 4-triple 2; Charles and Downes behind Fernandes and the new guy behind two high-energy high-pressing forwards). And it all changes if Still doesn't see a need for both Fraser and Armstrong to play.

He starts the game with one striker and ends the game with three. Martin wouldn't be so flexible.

We have a Premier League quality player willing to play for us in the Championship, at a fee that's less than half of what he'd cost if he was English (or even coming from anywhere bar Russia), and a natural deadline of the transfer window SLAMMING shut. And instead of letting the player and his agent put pressure on the club president to accept the deal, you want to threaten to withdraw the deal and make the president even less enthusiastic about accepting it? We are one of the eight biggest teams in the second biggest league in England. They are the Russian champions who would be playing in the Champions League if not for the war. When framed like that you can see why the president might want a better landing spot for their captain and star who has been at the club since he was 17. We were hamstrung by PSR to a degree after the January window where Rasmus tried to keep us up. Next season that loss will have cycled off the books, so we'll be free to have a proper crack like Sunderland if we get promoted. We might not be able to spend quite as much as them because we already have a bit of deadwood on PL wages (as opposed to their now-deadwood on Championship wages), but we're also a chance to have a decent PL-level core (Ramsdale, THB, Charles, Fernandes, Dibling, Spertsyan, anyone else who handles the step up with a good Championship season behind them) to build around. Sounds like a job for Mark Bitcoin.

It's the same reason we signed Ings; if he's healthy he scores for fun. Unlike Ings he hasn't had a prolonged run of fitness and games (yet). Having scored 10 in 13 in the Championship for Sunderland, if he'd come back in November of our last Championship season (as he did) and stayed fit thereafter (as he didn't) it's not unreasonable to think he'd have scored 20 in 31 for us in the Championship. On the back of that he could well have scored hatfuls in the Premier League; the floor for recent 20-goal Championship strikers is Akpom/Morris/Armstrong/BBD while the ceiling is Toney/Gyokeres/Solanke. As it was he played the equivalent of 4.3 games in the PL and scored once; that's the equivalent of eight or nine in a full season, or more if you think he'd have done better with more fitness and confidence from a good Championship campaign behind him. Yes, "the best ability is availability". But as a club with limited funds, we can't afford many 10+ goal PL strikers - or even potential double-figure PL strikers - unless there's something wrong with them (eg. they might score 10+ in the PL if they stay fit (Ings, Stewart), or once they develop with experience (Downs, Mara)). Especially when we're in the Championship, as we were when we signed Stewart. We can't afford stars, we don't want has-beens, we don't want tried and proven not-good-enoughs, so we're left buying maybes. The thing with maybes is maybe they pan out or maybe they don't. Welcome to Southampton FC.

Stripes on (some of) the back though.

Bazunu Edwards THB Quarshie Downes Charles Dibling Fernandes Spertsyan Downs Archer That's a perfectly cromulent Premier League midfield with Robinson, Armstrong, and Smallbone as depth. Downs/Archer/Stewart building confidence in the Championship and handling the step up to the PL next season. Three young CBs also improving with experience. Ramsdale back from loan. Maybe three or four £30m new recruits. That's a side that wins a dozen games in the Prem rather than picking up a dozen points.

The cross was fine. The finish was poor. Two poor finishes don't mean he's shit.

@ChristopheVAFC what's happening with Basse and Oyewusi?

Isn't he? The fact that the club are holding so firm on him means they think either other teams will come in for him and drive the price higher as you say, or that if he's still here come January and we're top of the league he'd sign a 3.5 year contract at good PL money and with a release clause. There's been a contract in front of him that he hasn't signed, but that was for a club dropping out of the PL and sacking multiple managers. Maybe under a new regime of Spors and Still he'll be more inclined to stay (and maybe they'll offer a better contract). He was happy to play behind closed doors vs Brighton, and the manager was happy to play him. So the door on him staying here obviously hasn't been closed by either side.

Even with all of those leaving there's plenty in this squad. Consider a first XI and a second XI using a 4-2-1-3. Both have the glaring absence of an AM, but even that second XI doesn't look out of place alongside midtable Championship lineups. So we have plenty of depth. Three at the back gets rid of the need for an AM by focusing on attacks from out wide. And again, that's assuming no reinforcements and everyone listed leaves (like others I don't think THB does). With five loan spots, the best part of £100m in net transfer fees, and being amongst the favourites for promotion and so an attractive path to Premier League football for new recruits? We're in a decent spot. We've already reportedly turned down what we paid for him from Porto. He's also clearly a class above the others at this stage. He's probably not. But with even minimal improvement is he midtable PL with a good head on his shoulders? Probably. With the potential to be the next Mark Guehi, is he worth a decent bit more than £20m? Yes.

He's not fine at the next level up, and we have plenty of CBs who are also (probably) fine at this level and who might be good enough for the next level if given a full season at this level to develop (Edwards, Quarshie, Wood, Kayi Sanda). Every minute of Captain Jack playing is a minute one of the others aren't, and they're the future of the club so shouldn't be getting blocked by someone whose tenure here should be wrapping up when his contract expires at the end of this season (but that's a whole 'nother story, which itself has also been done to death). Dibling played this morning.

I wasn't impressed with Bree and Welington in the last friendly (though I still like them overall), so maybe a chance of Sugawara/Edwards at RB and Manning/Taylor at LB. I also wasn't impressed with the lack of creativity in the first half, though I'm less confident Will Still agrees with me here. So we might see more BBD and Fraser (though I hope not). Armstrong on the right, Robinson on the left, Stewart or Downs up the middle, and NFI who plays behind them. I still hold out hope we might see a 3-4-3, which would get three CBs (one position where we have depth) on the field and eliminate the need to find someone to play as a 10. It'd also be evidence that Still isn't happy with what he's seen thus far. In that case something like Edwards - Stephens/THB - Quarshie Sugawara - Charles - Whoever - Manning Armstrong - Downs - Robinson Still likes to attack with a 2-3-5 or 3-2-5 so, while I don't know how much attacking we'll be doing against Brighton, the above allows two of the midfield four to push forward. You could go with a more defensive option on one of the flanks (eg. Bree or Taylor) with that man always dropping into midfield and the more attacking wideman pushing into attack along with one of the two midfielders, or you can go with two holding midfielders and let the wide players do all the attacking. I personally like Sugawara (with his average ball control but quality crossing meaning he's better out wide) on the overlap forcing Armstrong (whose shooting is much better than his crossing) to play more centrally.

You might be right, but if he goes to Everton I can also see him moving to Liverpool for £80m next summer. He's already PL quality and he's not turning 20 until next year. He's basically Jack Grealish, and I think like Grealish a year in the Championship then a year in the PL sets him up for a big-money move to a top club. Going to Everton now means skipping the Championship season; whether skipping that is enough to turn him from Grealish into Barkley, or whether last season's disasterclass in the PL is an adequate replacement for Grealish's Championship season, I don't know. The solution to the first part is... don't do the second part. You need ~15 mid-table PL-level players to make a good fist of staying up in the PL (from whence you can press on and establish yourselves as a mid-table PL team, then press on further to Europe). To have 15 mid-table PL players after being promoted you need to either drop £500m on 25 brand new £20m players and hope for a 60% success rate (AND hope all these players you've bought in gel together to make a cohesive team), or you need to get promoted with some number of mid-table PL (or better) players. Getting promoted with any players of this quality means hitting the jackpot with some number of cheapies (Edwards, Quarshie, Downs look like live chances), having a couple of academy kids step up (Robinson), spending not far shy of the £20m you need to spend in the PL on players who are considered worth this but for whatever reason are willing to play in the Championship (eg. loan to buys of players the quality of THB and Downes, or £12m+ on players like Charles), and - if you've recently been relegated - hanging onto as many of the mid-table PL-level players you already have as possible. (Even then you need luck; for example if Dibling had four years left on his contract and Fernandes had two instead of the reverse, it'd be MUCH easier to keep Dibling and would have little/no impact on the fee/interest in Fernandes.) Ramsdale and Fernandes meet the required standard. Dibling, THB, Edwards, Charles, and Welington are strong candidates to. Downes, Aribo, and Archer don't, but are close enough to scrape by. (Yes, Archer scoring 6 in minutes equivalent to 37 games is poor, but so were the teams he played for. And he's still only 23.) Quarshie, Sugawara, Robinson, Stewart, and Downs are live longshots that might make it. Other than that we have a couple of super longshots (Kayi Sanda, Wood, Matsuki, maybe Sesay) and so many Championship-level (sometimes "too good for the Championship"-level) players that we shouldn't be looking for new players to get promoted, but rather looking for new players to keep us up next year. The first four names listed were not enough on their own last season, but keeping those four means there are seven fewer £20m players you need to buy next season. It's also easier to go "Fernandes is PL quality; let's keep him" than to project forward the development of outside players or lesser players we already have. (Unfortunately, it's also MUCH easier to say "We should keep this guy who is obviously far too good for the Championship" than to actually keep him.) No, we've been playing Ryan Fraser as an AM. With the fact that our "Number 10" barrel is so empty that we've managed to scrape Weeman off the bottom of it, coupled with Still's past use of a 3-4-3 and known flexibility with respect to formations AND our CB depth which has seen CBs played at other positions just to get them on the park, using a wingback system is a distinct possibility. Yes. Another thing people forget when looking for us to buy more Championship-quality players a month before the window closes; we can borrow players money can't buy who will either do better than those we could buy or bugger off and not clog up the wage bill if they don't. Good concept; play players who might be PL quality over those who aren't. If they get smashed, reassess. If they don't, keep giving them chances to develop. Poor execution; play Sanda (or THB if fit, or Captain Jack for his unrivalled leadership) at CB and Edwards/Charles/Matsuki at 6/8/10.

What price Downs? I think Archer gets first shot at the job but I'm not sure he keeps it. I also rate Stewart and now that he's fully fit and healed and presumably has been doing the rehab/flexibility work to not have any concerns with his posterior chain (you see it so often with players - Stewart included - that they injure one part of the chain and then go on to have issues elsewhere along it) there's no reason he can't be fit and healthy all season. These are the two markets I have available in NZ; a handicap market paying 18/1 on every team and an outright market. Leicester and Watford look the obvious bets in the handicap market. Watford are joint eighth favourites in the outright market at 25/1 but getting +21 in the handicap, the same as Millwall and Bristol City who are 40/1 and 50/1 respectively (though maybe the discrepancy is in the outright market and Watford should be closer to 50/1). If Leicester somehow dodge a points deduction they could be in the race for autos, in which case +13 looks good. But just like in the Twitter thread above with people going "Where's Sargent? He's easy money", there are off-field factors that won't be resolved for a while yet. Maybe it's a good hedge as a Saints fan; if there's a deduction for Leicester it improves the chances of Saints going up, if there's no deduction your handicap bet looks pretty good.

My notes from throughout the game as I saw it. Stephens’ passing is shit. Negativity from Fraser in possession. Welington could have had two yellow cards in the first seven minutes. Long balls down the line to Archer look like the plan. It’s a shit plan when Archer is the target in particular, but a good use of Quarshie and Edwards (and THB) if they play on the outside of a 3 in a 3-4-3. Armstrong is wasted outside of a front 3. His workrate is arguably his best asset so a more fluid role across the front suits him better than having to stay in a zone on the right. Espanyol have their first chance on 14 minutes; Welington leaves a foot in and could’ve conceded a penalty against a more cynical attacker. I like him but that’s three notable bad moments already. Armstrong is also completely lost defensively in wide midfield. Fernandes has been quiet but good when he’s been involved. Charles has been getting forward more of the two and looking good doing it. He’s not Wanyama to Fernandes’ Schneiderlin; they’re both Schneiderlins. There hasn’t been enough in attack; mostly long balls down the line and misplaced passes in behind in the final third. Probably a symptom of not having a creative CAM. Some accidental one-touch football through the middle – courtesy of not-the-first poor pass from Ramsdale – sets Fraser free to run into the final third. Unfortunately a shot from 24yds is the only option he can find. BBDs workrate has actually looked good, but a few times in possession we’ve seen the problem with a right-footed player playing wide left. Archer leads a 3v3, BBD makes the wrong run (outside to in, as he wants to be on his right foot) to lead Archer into a 1v2. Armstrong makes no run at all. Saints having some luck from turnovers from an improved press. Armstrong has also dropped deep a couple of times to play some tappy shit and let Fernandes move up, where he looks potent (as he should, being by far the best player on the pitch for Saints). Quarshie has dealt with everything defensively quite well. He’s also been vocal and directing those around him. Wood has had a good preseason, Bednarek and THB are still here, Edwards is coming off a good season at this level, but Quarshie doesn’t look like a 5th choice CB. Half time, 0-0. Quarshie off, Bree on, Edwards from RB to LCB. BBD off, Robinson on, straight swap. Bree and Stephens immediately combine to let a man run in behind them from the kickoff and win a corner. Bree has since gone on a completely pointless overlap when the underlap was on, hammered a pass directly to an opponent while under no pressure (in his defence he was trying to bypass the entire midfield and play in Archer), and given up what should’ve probably been a stonewall pen. There’s a bit of venom in this second half. Just before the non-penalty Armstrong picked up a yellow for barging straight through a guy for no reason. Just afterwards an RCD player was lucky to avoid the same for going into the back of Fraser. Robinson looks good, controlling the ball well and looking to be positive with it. Bulk changes for RCD on 58 minutes. Bree and Stephens decide to play backwards and short from a wide-midfield free kick. It leads to them giving Fernandes the ball in a 1v3 situation not far from where the free kick was. After the turnover RCD cycle the ball across the backline from left to right and left again, then a long ball down the line sees Bree let his man get in behind him again and put in a cross. When the cross is cleared back in his direction, Bree then mishits a kung-fu clearance. I’ve been a proponent of the 4-2-1-3 becoming a 2-3-5 in attack, with one attacking fullback getting forward (Welington or Sugawara) and one defensive fullback sitting in in midfield (Bree or Taylor). On the evidence of the past 20 minutes it’s hard to want Bree anywhere near the team. Bulk changes for Saints on 62 minutes. Wood for Edwards, Manning for Welington, Downs for Archer, Fernandes for Sesay. All straight swaps. A mistake between Wood and Charles sees RCD away in a 3v2 which becomes a 4v2. Miscontrol from the attacker spares blushes. Another five changes for RCD on 68 minutes. GOAL RCD, 69 minutes, 1-0. A decent little move from the back, LFB to DM to striker straight up the middle who lays off for AM, whose throughball to the striker is deflected by Stephens into space where he and Manning watch the AM beat them to it and slot home. Downs is a big unit but he has a turn of foot. Others aren’t finding Sesay for whatever reason (preferring to go back or wide), and when he does get it he’s a bit quick/panicky. Not unsurprising for a kid playing up a couple of levels, but he looks like he’ll be getting a season with the U21s unless quite a few players leave. A Saints sub (and a second drinks break) on 73 minutes. Stewart for Armstrong, Robinson to wide right midfield, Stewart to right attack, Fraser to left attack. GOAL RCD, 76 minutes, 2-0. A very soft penalty (dive) against Stephens from a bouncing cross. He was penalised for a trailing arm to the head of the striker getting in behind him, but it’s never a pen. Still, they were probably owed one from earlier. Bree pushes up to press the opposition fullback, gets beaten all ends up and drags him back. Robinson picks up a loose ball near midfield and immediately looks to run at his man and then play in Downs. From what we’ve seen today he’s third name on the teamsheet behind Ramsdale and Fernandes. Stephens’ passing is still shit. Robinson drops back to pick up a pass from a pressured Ramsdale, then plays a nice ball forward to Fraser on the left wing whose contribution is poor chest control and a pass backwards. A few good touches from Sesay, starting from a phase where the ball was rolled to his feet by Ramsdale and he carried forward before some interplay with Stewart. Also a couple of moments where he’s been on his heels (or a pass to him has been poor and he’s had to adjust) and a couple of RCD straight balls through midfield where he may have been in the wrong position, but he’s warming into things. At least until the ball gets smashed into the side of his head on 90 minutes. GOAL Saints, 90+1, 2-1. RCD playing more conservatively has allowed Saints to press. The press has allowed Saints to turn defence into attack, at least until someone who doesn’t want to attack (eg. Fraser) gets the ball. On this occasion Robinson forces his man back near the touchline in midfield, Stewart pounces to take possession, he plays it to Robinson who takes one touch before playing it in behind to the near post for Downs who shoots first time across the keeper and just inside the far post from a couple of yards outside the corner of the six yard box. Full time 2-1. Great: Robinson, Quarshie. Good: Fernandes, Charles (first half), BBD, at a stretch Stewart (in the wrong position but working hard and getting involved positively) and Downs (great finish, looked quick and fast, not heavily involved). Bad: Stephens, Bree, Fraser, Welington.

Tim Lederer.