SaintBobby

The odd thing about this "methodology" is that the "chance of winning" and "estimated points" don't correlate. My understanding is that, in the Premier League, you get one point for drawing a match. The calculation on this thread assumes no draws (or no points for drawing). If you have a 50% chance of winning a given game, your estimated points return is higher than 1.5. You presumably have some sort of chance (25%?) of drawing it, which needs to be added. (in this case, it would mean your est, points is 1.75). If you have a 10% chance of winning a match, you also presumable have some chance of drawing it. (15%?). In this case your est. points goes from 0.3 to 0.45. This pretty glaring flaw explains why the original poster only expects us to get 1.04 points per game - he has ruled out Saints getting any further points at all from draws.

They pretty much deserve everything they get. I do think clubs should be able to re-form under the same name, but Derby have cheated. They should rebuild again from the Beazer Homes Third Division if necessary.

Palace now winning. Without Zaha.

Sounds about right and unaffordable. I wonder if we could do a Tino-style deal? Buy him for, say, £10m and they can buy him back for £25m in 2-3 years time if they wish to?

Ignore that...normal service resumed....

wtf is happening at Tottenham?!

Delighted with the grit and determination in the last three matches - a year or two ago we would have lost all three. Seems we have discovered a bit of mental resilience.

The match is available on BBC iPlayer, even if you're not in Wales.

Isn’t the problem that our attacking midfielders are, by and large, wingers? Don’t really have anyone who is a natural in that central attacking position - possibly S Armstrong, but we also seem to play him on the flanks.

I guess, at the moment, I’m more relieved than excited, but this does seem like a step forward even if it’s not a quantum leap. I see our odds for relegation have also drifted out to about 17/1 or even 19/1 with some bookmakers, suggesting punters think this improves our position too.

I think we’ll stay up with about 15 points to spare. The truth this season and last is that mediocrity is enough to stay up with comfort - assuming you don’t have a run of truly abysmal luck/results.

A bit like last season, the bottom three could end up with a derisory points total. I think it could be as few as 28 points to stay up....think it was that last season?

Yeah, but as you say, it's the law that is the problem here, not the game. Because the state have treated Covid-Omicron differently to any other affliction, it's legally barring players from competing. In all other circumstances, players carry on with a "very slight knock" or a "bit of the sniffles". That's illegal with regard to this current minor affliction.

Yep, apparently so.

Because omicron is highly infectious and the vaccine is not a guarantee of not catching it.

Hmmm. See answers 4 and 5 here: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/health/how-effective-are-covid-19-vaccines-against-omicron Given the enormous lengths footballers are expected to go to in order to maximise their chances of playing at peak performance, it’s beyond absurd that players paid millions a year - often equating to several thousand pounds per minute on the pitch - wouldn’t take 3 jabs.

Covid overall is worse. But this latest variant seems much milder than flu. Think it's caused about 5-10 deaths in the UK (the number of people dying "with it" rather than "from it" will be much higher, of course). It's about on a par with the common cold. Which makes calling off matches because a few very fit men in their 20s have a bout of the sniffles even more absurd. But, as has been said, that's the government's fault not the clubs.

Yeah, I like him. He’s passed his peak now, but he harries brilliantly

Championship “at best”. You think his natural level is basically Third or Fourth Division?

I hated the starting line up. But we were excellent until the red card and defended very well in the 2nd half. Got a bit of fortune, but deserved the point. Had Salisu not given away the penalty and got sent off, we may well have won. Spurs are a pretty disappointing outfit.

I’m already assuming he’s unaffordable- £30m+?

What a miss from Walcott...gees

Utter shambles in this half. Abysmal.

KInd of weird that we wil be up against the same manager in 2 consecutive league matches, wonder if that's ever happened.

Table sorting of taking shape now. I’m feeling more confident than a few weeks ago for sure. I think the teams below us are all worse than us. Good news that Arsenal’s suicidal efforts didn’t stop them defeating Watford