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moonraker

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Everything posted by moonraker

  1. Really, and just how are they going to do that?
  2. Im glad your so certain that the world you desire will come to pass, I am not.
  3. Here we go again what is the difference between a statistic and a number? These are numbers and percentages of the actual number so cars made and exported in 2015, to arrive at these “dodgy statistics” one simply counts each car as it leaves the production line and then you count each car that is transhipped to a European Destination, hope that is not to difficult. My real concern despite the out campaign, without any reliable evidence, claim all will be fine and the status quo will be maintained for the motor industry. Even when a major manufacture, inappropriately, puts out statement strongly tending toward saying leaving will cost jobs you still refute that their will be negative consequences. Europe may wish to continue trading but on their terms not ours, its that simple and no amount of wishful thinking will alter that.
  4. Is that the Nissan that is 48% owned by the French?
  5. So the 180,000 people employed in car manufactureing are all foreigners or something? 1,587,677 cars were made in the UK of which 1,227,881 were exported 57% of which was to the EU. If thats not a motor industry I dont know what is.
  6. Have to agree having listened he is not very good at this stuff.
  7. Note, wishing to remain in and being a lefty are not synonymous. I have not yet seen Rose’s evidence so will reserve judgement but your very limited quotes (not even sentences) suggest there is far more to understand than you would like us to believe.
  8. And your point is. An independent German naval strategist postulates forming an EU Auxiliary Naval Force (note the word auxiliary), hardly news. Strategist and analysts theorise these sorts of things on a daily basis, they rarely lead to anything, hey he even decries Brussels Bureaucracy.
  9. So far I have seen nothing to change his view.
  10. I have never accused the leave lobby of not having reasons only that I do not accept their reasons as being suffiecient for me to support leaving. I also have grave concerns as to how much covert input the right wing of UK politics have in the various out camps, I suspect more than many would be comfortable with.
  11. Would that be the EFTA consiting of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, shame we dont export winter sports equipment.
  12. http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf Forgive me if I take a while to respond 400+ pages will take a bit of digesting, and it will be longest vison paper I have ever read. Just noted another its another serial anti EU campaigner, I will still read it.
  13. I read the article and was not convinced. He makes assumptions that I and many others contest, his straight jacket is the basis of the out argument and personally I think he is wrong. You are free to agree with him. Your response to the majority of Economists and why they are wrong would be interesting.
  14. I have been directly involved with international co-operation in developing safety standards, and my experience is that the EU framework of consultation and co-operation delivers better standards than individual nations and many global bodies. Yes there are other bodies developing standards that are used globally these tend to be very sector focused and inefficient, often resulting in standards that are the minimum that can be agreed not the standard that is required. The EU avoids many of the pitfalls of global bodies by requiring its members to sign up to common cause and commitment, this does mean abrogating some of the more narrow national interests for the common good. In many the cases the wholly self governing countries you quote adopt standards developed elsewhere, often in the EU. They do this because the credibility of the processes used is assured and the cost of doing all the work oneself is exorbitant.
  15. I raise you the FT artiucle which states "British membership of a reformed EU is vital to Britain’s economic security is today backed by an overwhelming majority of economists in an annual Financial Times survey." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/38e77ce4-b217-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz41jgIML94
  16. Minford is a long term outer, this is not new.
  17. The old saying there is safety in numbers seems to fit the bill then.
  18. You saved me the trouble thanks.
  19. My opening sentence says facts or likely outcomes. The great issue with out is the unknown, therefore their are few if any hard facts the out campaign can deploy. All I have heard and read from out is hopeful scenarios that always tend towards a favourable outcome for the UK. I acknowledge that some outcomes may be satisfactory but many are wishful thinking with no timescale. The campaign can be characterised as the known v the unknown (not fear v freedom), in the current geo political environment I choose the known. But to answer your question exactly the following are facts: Policy and decision making no say, if we went back in we would have to have the Euro and no Maggie’s Rebate, (Free movement unknown), all previous non members who have trade deals have to accept this, the price of a trade deal means we will still make contributions to the running of the EU. The rest I consider highly likely.
  20. In the absence of any realism from the out campaign what are the facts and likely outcomes of an in or out vote: STAYING IN • Guaranteed access to EU free market for all goods and services. • Freedom of movement for all EU citizens across the EU. • A say in the EU policy and decision making process. • Cross border medical cover remains. • We make contributions to the running of the EU circa £18m / day. • Better relationships with neighbours, friends and collaborators. More influence globally. • Scotland much less likely to have second referendum. • No drastic change to UK Government policies, they can get on with the day job of running the country. • No cost to the UK Government (i.e. the taxpayer) business as usual. • If the EU does move towards unacceptable political union we can have another referendum, very likely other countries would want one as well. LEAVING THE EU • No free market and scope of any deal likely to be reduced. • Free movement unknown, all previous non members who have trade deals have to accept this • Policy and decision making no say. • Reduced or no cross border medical arrangements, would not be part of a trade deal. • We will still make contributions to the running of the EU, cost unknown but precedence says at least £18m / day. • Likely we will have an extended period of frosty relationships across the EU with the UK lower on the priority list of major world powers. • Scotland has second independence referendum and leaves the UK. • Massive distraction from the Governments day job, negotiating exit terms and renegotiating deals. Domestic policy suffers, most likely to impacts on NHS, education and welfare. • Potential high cost due to renegotiating and EU states being more reluctant to deal with UK until trade deal is agreed, trade decreases, unemployment rises. • Highly unlikely we could get back in and certainly not on the current favourable terms,: no Euro, Maggie’s Rebate. If we leave that’s it. The following are not facts, they are straws to clutch at. • The EU will definitely become a European super state. • Net migration will fall dramatically. • The UK will be more resilient to terrorist attack. • We hold all the cards. • The EU will treat us differently to other non EU states.
  21. This long but I think I have covered most things! The Truth is Out The more I read on the referendum the more I realise the absurdity of it. I openly admit that in principal I am in favour of the EU, it is not perfect and needs real reform but to me the alternative is regressive. The out campaign want a return of sovereignty, control of our borders, an end to needless at times silly laws, to protect our culture, avoid closer political union, save money, and to be true to our history. All on the face of it reasonable and desirable. Yet dig deeper and examine the vision the out campaign is promoting it is then obvious that withdrawal from the EU will never deliver their vision. Sovereignty If sovereignty means having supreme power or authority then this is not unachievable by simply leaving the EU. Few, if any, modern nation states can claim to have sovereignty when judged against this definition. Those that come close are either super powers or despotic regimes, that few if any British people would wish for, e.g. North Korea. The UK is signatory to a over 14,000 international agreements, , some EU specific but many not. These impose duties and laws on us, we live in a global world the concept of absolute sovereignty is a myth. A few examples of non EU agreements are: • NATO - Defence • SOLAS - Maritime • Security Control in the Field of Nuclear Energy – Energy and Security • Protection of the Environment Through Criminal Law – The Environment • International Labour Convention – Human Rights • Montreal Convention - Environment • Convention on International Civil Aviation – Aviation • International Transport of Goods – Transport • United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation – Education • Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals – Animal Welfare and Conservation I have not seen any arguments that we should withdraw from any other binding agreements. Whilst we may have a greater degree of autonomy in what we do and do not sign up to, commercial, ethical and security needs demand that we are collaborative and co-operative. Control of our Borders The UK has a single short, 310 miles, land border with one other nation state. For 30 years the biggest terrorist threat we have ever faced emanated from across this border and yet this border has never been controlled in the way the out campaign are now advocating. Prior to the security threat their was mass immigration across the self same border, at the time many UK citizens resented these immigrants but the controls that are now being advocated were never proposed. The migration of people is as old as the human race and whilst security, economic and social issues now mean we have to apply some control this has to be practicable and not restrict the conduct of legitimate, migration, travel and business. As an island we are capable of providing the border controls required to address transient problems and risks, being politically isolated from Europe will not make us any safer or more impregnable. End Needless and at Times Silly Laws Leaving the EU is hardly likely to put an end to this. The UK and constituent parts has long history of strange and silly laws, indeed it is part of our culture. How about these amusing ordinances: It is an offence to beat or shake any carpet rug or mat in any street in the Metropolitan Police District, although you are allowed to shake a doormat before 8 am. It is illegal to eat Mute Swan unless you’re the Queen of Great Britain. It is an offense to be intoxicated and in charge of a cow in Scotland. Under the terms of the Protection of Wrecks Order 2003: A person shall not enter the hull of the Titanic without permission from the Secretary of State. It is illegal to enter the Houses of Parliament in a suit of armor; Whilst some of these may have made sense when they were enacted, some are recent, the fact that they remain is worrying. So not being in the EU will not stop unnecessary law making. Protect Our Culture Culture is a concept that by its very nature is dynamic and ever changing. Culture is the characteristics and knowledge of a particular group of people, defined by everything from language, religion, cuisine, social habits, music and arts. Taking each of these in turn how has the EU changed our culture. We still speak English, in fact more Europeans speak English than any other Language, no impact there. Very different to the UK Governments efforts to destroy the Welsh language in the 19th and 20th centuries. Europe is predominantly Christian, the UK is predominantly Christian, no change there then. We have certainly changed our diet, however the biggest influences are from cultures out side of the EU, so we cant pin our far more colourful and tasty menus on them. Social habits, music and arts, this covers a wide range of activities and customs. We still celebrate the torture, mutilation and execution of a 16th century Religious Terrorist, Morris Dancing is still legal and actively pursued, excessive drinking and rowdiness persist. EU directive juggernaut are has not stopped us driving on the left, having road signs in miles, beer served in pints, and paid for in GB Pounds, even cheese rolling is still allowed. Of course none of this matters because our culture is not formed by EU, we choose our music, art and theatre, we are adventurous in our cuisine and we initiate and terminate traditions, there is nothing wrong with British Culture it is alive and well and evolving nicely. Closer Political Union The real issue for me, there are Eurocrats and politicians who have a vision of a European Super state, nothing new there ask Julius Caesar. The current EU is far more politically connected than the original European Coal and Steel Community, and its various successors. The out campaign disparages the former Eastern Bloc countries citizens rights to free movement while failing to acknowledge that their recently won freedom from an oppressive overlord will not be given up to Brussels lightly. The idea that a European Super state could be foisted on us through the back door is just implausible. Money The UK net contribution to the EU budget is less than 0.5 per cent of GDP, £18.4m per day, sounds a lot! The CBI estimates the EU adds a £192m a day to our GDP so net gain of £173m. Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands, all pay more than we do and are arguable the most successful and advanced EU members. Through its global clout the EU is a springboard for trade with the rest of the world: it accounted for 23% of the global economy in 2012. 30 trade deals have been negotiated by the EU, including the Single Market itself, British firms have full access to a $24 trillion market the largest single market in the world. The recent deal with Canada and on-going discussions with Japan and the US could double this to $47 trillion, the UK would struggle to achieve the same quality of trade deals independently. Leaving the EU will mean that the UK will have to fill the EU funding gap created by withdrawal or significantly reduce investment particularly in some of the most deprived areas of the UK. To put it another way all investment decisions will be taken in Westminster where party politics will have a far greater influence than the current system which while not perfect cannot be said to take into account marginal seats. The net contribution we make, call it our membership fee, will still be payable but as a non-voting member. It was the founding fathers of the USA who said no taxation without representation, yet here we are with the out camp advocating exactly that. Bad History The ridiculous Brexit History of the UK needs correction. The UK came into existence through the Act of Union 1707, as a Sovereign Nation we are a little over 300 years old. The first King of All England, Edgar was crowned in Bath in 973. England had a succession of Anglo-Saxon and Danish kings for the next 80 years before the Norseman William the Bastard invaded and gave us continental rule for the next 400 years. These Norse invaders were replaced by the Welshman Henry Tudor, his line lasted until a Scot was made king in 1603. The Scottish kings were not very good and in 1653 an Englishman finally led the country. He banned music, Christmas, mince pies basically anything that was fun or frivolous. On the death of the Lord Protector the nation came to its senses and invited a Frence/Scot to take the throne. He was succeeded by his brother the Roman Catholic James II this did not turn out well and the people of England asked a Dutchman called Billy to kick James out and Rule in his place. We continued with the foreign theme of rulers with Germans filling the gap left by Queen Ann’s failure to produce an Heir. The people of the UK were content with these Foreigners being in charge provided they did not ban anything that was fun or frivolous and left them alone to go to new lands and exploit to the full whatever and whoever they found there. Then when we get a monarch who could be passed of as English she marries a German. He may not have ruled but he certainly had an impact on the British way of life. Our country is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, not Great Britain, this is reference to largest island in the British Isles archipelago. It is therefore not necessary to put the Great back into Britain, it is physical truth. Conclusion So having our laws, customs and culture dictated or influenced by foreigners is nothing new it is who we are, it has always been so. It has served us well and created one of the most attractive, tolerant and diverse nation on earth. So please BREXIT stop playing the false sovereignty, borders, culture, financial and history cards, they are more Greek mythology than reality. The referendum is about our future not the past, that cannot be changed, by leaving the EU a successful future is less certain.
  22. So if we vote to stay in what change(s) in the current arrangements do you belive should trigger a referendum?
  23. The biggest part of the population that doesn't seem to understand are in the out camp, from my observations. once Scotland leave the union and the Welsh get fed up with london based tories and demand an in out referendum, putting the Great back into Britain may be a bit difficult for you regressionists.
  24. Getting back control is overplayed we are signatories to a huge range of international agreements that have nothing to do with the EU. These impose duties and indeed laws on us, we live in a global world and the concept of absolute sovereignty is a myth. One example our ships and shipping operate under the auspices of the IMO and SOLAS (including the RFA) if we did not do this we would not be able to flag vessel with our flag. Do you want to pull out of the IMO? For many international treaties and agreements we are signatories via the EU we would have to renegotiate these on a case by case basis if we leave. In doing so we would have less leverage and influence.
  25. The clue is in the word risk: an event that has a likelihood and impact i.e. not a certainty. My risk assessment is that the likelihood of the EU playing hardball of over trade negotiations is high and that the impact of this will be severe to the UK economy. Simple risk management stuff, and for me on balance the risks of leaving are far greater than risks of staying in, no emotion, no bias or crystal ball.
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