Jimmy_D

How full scale invasion started. : ukraine (reddit.com) I think this video more than any other I've seen so far has made it hit home just what Russia has destroyed. Going from something that seems so mundane and normal in an instant... have to admit it's easy to lose sight of that a bit when for weeks Ukraine has only been seen as a battlefield.

The lend-lease bill is something separate that was already signed to make it easier to lend or lease existing military stock to Ukraine. In effect anything provided with that will returned to the USA if possible. The $40B is a separate aid package that will in effect be a donation to Ukraine. It was prevented from being fast-track ratified by a single US Sentator, Rand Paul, objecting, but it has bipartisan support and will easily be approved by the US Senate once it's fully debated. EDIT: You're correct in that it'll be US produced arms that are sent, but that's the entire point, to arm the Ukraine Army with more/better weapons than they have. The dollar value is just there to simplify the decision on whether it's approved or not.

Of course everyone wants the war to be over, but it’ll be finished on Ukraine’s terms. The USA putting $40B in with bipartisan support, in addition to $9B that was already available, shows that they’re not going to leave Ukraine high and dry.

Do you mean the Women’s FA Cup Final? That was an excellent game.

Any agreement that Russia would accept would likely include Ukraine disarming, a pledge for Ukraine to not join NATO, and if Macron got his way, recognition of at the very least, Crimea as Russian, as well as the territory they’ve already taken. All Ukraine would get is Russia stopping their attack now and agreeing to peace… until Russia comes up with a story about Ukraine breaking the agreement, or carrying out some other atrocity, and Russia being forced to “ensure their security.” It’s likely that Ukraine’s security and peace can be best secured by defeating Russia militarily, such that Russia lose the capability of invading effectively and retreat unilaterally. That then leaves Ukraine free to increase their military capability and enter security agreements to make any future invasion cost Russia far too much.

Russia’s trouble there is that, between Russia breaking their agreement not to invade if Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons, and Russia’s constant misinformation before and during this war, Russia’s word in any agreement is essentially worthless. Giving up anything to restore peace, and hoping Russia will be satisfied with it, is essentially just handing something over to Russia for nothing. At this point Russia don’t have Odessa, and it’s almost guaranteed they would break any agreement in the future if they thought they could take it.

To be fair the same reasons that Ukraine has done well have probably helped the UK somewhat this year... Second to Ukraine is the best I'd have wanted us to do this year I think (and the best we could have done!) Would have felt awkward almost if we'd pushed Ukraine into second place? 😅 Anything that annoys Putin and will be noticed by the Russian public is a win for all of us in my book.

Well... they've tried at least. It's not completely over Zelensky's head as they've come up with proposals and then taken them to Zelensky. He unsurprisingly turned them down. Macron is still a bit of a bellend for trying to surrender on someone else's behalf.

Russia have gained very little in the South since the start of the invasion, and have paid a huge price for those small gains. All tanks originally allocated to the invasion are now reported as destroyed. They’re digging into mothballed equipment from as far back as the 60s, and some are now armed with only bolt action rifles. Morale is close to the point of breaking. With Russia breaking around Kharkiv, that’ll free up some of the Ukrainian forces there and will give them options. Ukraine now has artillery, including the M777, that vastly outranges Russia’s, is vastly more accurate, and has better counter-battery systems attached to them. A combination of Ukraine’s Javelins, the UK’s Brimstones, and now even an Israeli Blue Spear system, have made the Black Sea increasingly hostile for Russian ships. I think the reason there’s been so much activity around Snake Rock the last few days is that Russia were on a clock before that arrived to get a foothold for an amphibious assault on Odessa. That’s likely passed now, Odessa is extremely unlikely to fall.

Someone has. • Support of Volodymyr Zelensky's during war in Ukraine 2022 | Statista 70% believe in Ukraine’s victory, 91% support Zelensky, (kyivindependent.com) How President Zelensky’s approval ratings have surged - New Statesman Funnily enough, performing miracles to drum up international support and hold off a brutal Russian attack on his country has somewhat improved his approval ratings.

Everyone will be buying bungalows and avoiding upper floor windows.

There are a lot of people trying to tell Ukraine what they should do. It's up to Zelensky and the Ukrainians.

Putin's been acting as if he'll be in power forever since he got into power. I guess that might have changed if he has been ill, but it's still going to be one hell of a power vacuum that's left if he does go.

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News Ukraine's head of military intelligence claiming that information has leaked or been obtained that Putin is seriously ill and the process of replacing him is already in progress. Rumours have been floating around for a while of course, and it wouldn't be surprising, but it's interesting that it's actually Ukrainian intelligence claiming this now.

Sounds like that might actually be their strategy at this point. A third attempt has gone about as well as the first two, according to the Luhansk governor. Ukraine war latest: Russians failed three times in bloody river battle, says Ukraine - BBC News

The formation of Ukraine is a settled issue. Russia in effect recognised that by holding the sham vote for Crimea to break away. Although the circumstances leading to them were very different, in effect both Crimea and Taiwan have unilaterally declared independence without ‘permission’. Supporting Russia’s claims to Crimea could undermine China’s policy that Taiwan is Chinese.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3228896-china-confirms-nonrecognition-of-attempted-annexation-of-crimea-and-ban-on-contacts-with-occupation-authorities.html If it’s confirmed, sounds like it’s not so much coming out in support of Ukraine, but a combination of China recognising which way the wind is blowing in Ukraine, self interest in not wanting their stance on Crimea to undermine their their stance on Taiwan, and not wanting to get drawn into backing up Russia if Ukraine moves to liberate Crimea. That would still be helpful for Ukraine in terms of what Putin can do. My gut feeling, China thinks there’s a small possibility Putin would use Ukraine moving on Crimea as an excuse for escalation that they don’t want to see.

Oh... that's a huge shift in Ukraine's favour... China has apparently recognised all of Ukraine, including Donbas, Donetsk, and Crimea as Ukrainian.

See that the UK has signed Joint Security Agreements with Sweden and Finland today. That'll have a twofold effect in terms of them joining NATO, which now looks inevitible. Firstly it'll provide the UK's military as security during the period that they've applied to NATO but before they join. Secondly that security makes any application to NATO likely to run much smoother. It's far less likely they'll be drawn into a conflict as a result, and vastly reduces one of the possible objections that there could have been to slow down any application.

Russia invades a soverign territory, using any means, including rape, mass murder, and torture of civilians, to attempt to force the invasion to be successful. Said soverign territory asks for help. Help is provided to said soverign territory, and turns out to be extremely effective. No actions have occurred that come anywhere near justifying Russia either initiating this, or carrying it out in the way they have. NATO isn't committing any crime by seeking to allow new countries to join, nor are countries committing a crime by seeking to join NATO. Russian paranoia, leading to threats to soverign countries not to do something, that they are perfectly entited to do, in no way justifies it. This has backfired on Russia in almost every way it's possible to backfire. Countries are more justified than in ever in seeking to join the protection that NATO provides, and NATO is now stronger and more unified than it's ever been. Russia's army has gone from something that invoked a certain level of apprehension, respect, even fear, to being a source of ridicule, derision, and utter disgust. Russia is now more isolated than it's ever been. It's accelerated its biggest market in it's efforts to move away from carbon based energy, and Russia biggest source of wealth. That will never return for them, and it will take decades for Russia to get back just to where they were before they invaded.

Apparently they cancelled the flyover portion of the parade too. Claimed to be due to bad weather, but it seems that weather was better than last year when the flyover went ahead. My gut feeling is that either they got some sort of intelligence that an anti-air missile attack was possible, or Putin got paranoid for some reason.

Not sure this has been verified, but this person was spot on about the Moskva when it was hit. I'm more inclined to think something he's put out will turn out to be genuine than Russian State Media at any rate.

Still no confirmation either way on whether Admiral Makarov was hit, but something happened there to force Russian ships (and the anti-air capability they were providing) to pull way back and allow the counter attacks on Snake Island to occur. Seen some speculation that it may have actually been a Russian sub that was hit, based on the infra-red satellite data and the types of NATO aircraft that responded when the Makarov speculation was emerging.

Leeds imploding here.

Excellent. Looking very difficult for Liverpool now.