Jimmy_D

Purely on an individual basis, it seems that children don't have the same resistance to it as the more common variant. But it's how fast this thing spreads that has always been the biggest problem with it. Our only weapon until now against this overwhelming the NHS's ability to treat people has been lockdown measures, and this variant directly makes those measures less effective. Right now we're trying to buy enough time to roll out the vaccine before that happens.

It's far more contagious, enough that it's spreading exponentially (ie r above 1) despite lockdown measures that were previously enough to reduce r below 1. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4944

It's not just regulatory approval that's lacking there, it's data to back up the 91% figure, especially on how long that immunity lasts. They will have been looking at it as an option, and if they have the data to back up that it's the best option for saving lives, they'll recommend it.

Too early to tell, those figures have always lagged behind, there's nothing to suggest they won't follow the same pattern unfortunately.

Into Tier 4 then. Looks like the new variant is a bit of a monster, it's not going to be easy to keep it under control, especially if people are starting to get fatigued with following restrictions. I'd be absolutely amazed if they don't extend Tier 4 even further over the next few days/weeks. Hopefully that'll be enough to suppress it. The vaccine is going to be our only realistic way out of this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846 Decent summary of where we are with the new variant and links to more info.

Oh no Sorry to hear that, this truly has been an awful awful year.

Whether the Christmas relaxation of the measures would have been a good idea or not without this variant... personally I’d have leaned towards ‘not.’ The more contagious variant does exist though, the WHO have been notified of it, and we need to deal with it. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

Nothing published as far as I’m aware yet, beyond the figure that Boris Johnson quoted. That figure came from NERVTAG I believe.

Spreading faster IS the problem. A very very significant one. The biggest issue with COVID is that it spreads so fast, and our only effective weapon against that has been lockdown measures. This mutation directly makes those measures less effective. As I’ve said before, there are thousands of mutations, most of them haven’t caused a significant reaction in what we need to do, but this one has unfortunately. Because it’s spreading faster (around 70% estimated), the measures that are in place to reduce spread aren’t enough, the number of people getting sick is leaping up despite them. If we don’t want the NHS to be overwhelmed we don’t have a choice but to tighten it up. Another factor is that we have a vaccine now. That gives us a way out of lockdown and means that there’s a good reason to stop as many people getting sick as possible until it’s rolled out.

Can’t say as I’m surprised about the new measures, as more data comes in about the new variant... it’s not good. Quite frankly they probably don’t go far enough.

Guh. Played well, came up against a decent team, didn’t go our way. Hopefully Ings won’t be too bad and on to the next one.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857 Info about the new variant that's been in the news. Initial data suggests infection rates of the variant are high, based on how prevalent it's become quickly. It's also prevalent in areas that have seen a higher than expected uptick in cases. There's not enough data yet, though, to say for certain that it's one of the causes for it. There are changes to the spike protein, but they're not expected to make the vaccine less effective as the vaccine has been designed to train the immune system against several different targets on the spike protein. It's unlikely that COVID-19 will be able to mutate enough to completely evade a vaccinated immune system AND remain infectious, but if it does, it's relatively simple to update the vaccine to train against the new targets.

I didn't know him, but always sad to hear of a fellow Saints fan passing. RIP

Chelsea's second half against us shows why they won't win the league... Liverpool's second half against Everton shows why they won't win the league... Spurs second half against Palace shows why they won't win the league... City's second half against Leeds shows why they won't win the league... If we're not careful no-one's going to end up winning it!

Bloody hell, what a goal for West Ham there! Glad the Liverpool - Spurs match wouldn't load up for me now!

He wasn't, it was Ings that got the yellow. He is however on 4 yellows for the season and a potential 1 game suspension though.

Disappointed with a point at the Emirates. We're having a good season. How that wasn't a penalty I don't know. He's body-checked him off the ball!

Seething at the non-penalty after that.

How is that not a penalty!?

OHHHHH! Unlucky Redmond!

Walcott would have been clean through then!

Looking better now, need Ings to get on the scoresheet now

Dammit. Come on Saints, get yourselves back into this...

Decent first half! Live table doesn't look too bad either