chrisobee

Chris O is back Frankie No idea what the problem was ? I know absolutely the feeling when you are posting and no one else is, take it from me if you go back over this thread I've been talking to myself many times and for a few weeks sometimes ! Anyway the boy did great on his own, as per my FB message was more than happy with Swiss Diva last night, my only bet but ran well in defeat and one definitely to watch out for. Just for now going to concentrate on the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, 3.05. This is a race where the trends are very strong and I believe are a better way than most to pick a likely winner. With thanks to Key Racing News for much of this data this is a good summation as to what to look for : Two types hold sway in this; horses from the hurdles sphere laid out to win or flat horses at peak of fitness, typically primed with a race within the last 3 weeks. Of the last 14 winners, all 11 from the flat had raced within the past 21 days, some at Ascot but most elsewhere. Only 1/10 winners carried more than 8-11. Horses prepared with this in mind won't have won last time out on the flat (1/10), although they might over hurdles. It's worth noting that in both cases it was the same horse, Bangalore, who was the one to defy these trends. So in general, barring an unusual type, the trends look strong. In terms of stamina, 12/14 winners had previously won over a minimum 13fl and 13/14 raced over 14fl+ LTO. Running the trends leaves just 3 likely candidates: Overturn, Rajik & Aaim To Prosper. Rajik is effectively 7lbs higher without Mr Joseph O'Brien. Fast ground and a strong pace are ideal, and he could well improve markedly on the Ascot run (settled out the back from a poor draw off a muddling pace), but thanks to James Sullivan who claims 5 aboard Aaim To Prosper, Rajik has to make up 4 lengths from their last meeting while also conceding a further 12lbs. Aaim To Prosper ran an excellent race at Ascot. He shaped as if a slightly sharper test would suit, and well-watered fast ground (it was 8.6 on the stick at Ascot) should be fine. He comes here on an unchanged mark although lighter overall given the claim. He's admirably consistent and does it the hard way, rarely appearing outside Group 1 venues. Overturn is a contender from the hurdling division, feasibly weighted on his flat form and in excellent heart this spring. Such a busy campaign raise a doubt, but he's been freshened up and could deliver improvement if running anywhere close to his hurdles form. He stayed on well to win over 14fl on the flat (on soft) and with NH prep should certainly get the extra 2 furlongs in faster conditions. The ground is faster than ideal, but probably still within his range. The yard have been in great form. From outside the trends Mamlook is respected and may warrant a cover, although the winner of the Chester Cup has not won this since 1974. Nevertheless, fast ground does increase the chances of a horse with more weight bucking the trends. Another to consider from outside the trends is Bernie The Bolt who didn't like the tight turns at Chester, wants it quick and been prepared with this in mind ever since. Looking at the current prices Aaim to Prosper looks a great price on BF at 24/1 and £10 win, £5 place isn't going to break the bank so an unusually early bet for me but at the price has to be backed. Plenty to look at though any thoughts on the 8.50 at Doncaster are welcome. Marywell looks a silly price at around 4/5 so looking to take her on even though she may well be good enough. Ertiyaad @ around 8/1 appeals though hasn't run for 227 days so Egmarey ( around 5/1) might be the pick, she's a lot better than the bare form at Salisbury 13 days ago suggested though still ran well to take 4th at 28/1.Her path up the rail was blocked and forced to check but then ran on showing she had plenty to give. Of significant interest, particularly stepped up to 9 or 10fl (by Oasis Dream & half sister to a 12fl winner). Back later, good luck "all", where is kipper, is he on holiday ?? Chris

Would say the 9/2 for Comedy Act freely available is surely worth a few quid. I don't think the increase in trip will be a problem, might even be a plus and Sir Mark Prescott is clearly no mug when it comes to getting his horses ready. I might even have considered an ew double with Huzzah one of my selections but only 6 runners so won't be doing that. Really concentrating on the football, reckon it's nail biting time, at least I have nails to bite having wisely not cut them since the Algeria game. Tips only : Worc 14:55 Mous Of Men Carl 15:05 Flowing Cape Salis 15:15 Huzzah : Well we have 3 v the field between us and Baylini a N/R so hopefully a winner for one of us Carl 15:35 Sir Royal Each Way Bath 18:40 Second To Nun Kemp 20:50 Speed Dating NAP Good luck though I'll gladly settle for an England win and 3 losers ! Chris Edit: Not so sure about 6 losers as it would now be!

Seneschal at 50/1 by a distance, would never have called that. Been some real long shots going in lately including a 101/1 and a 93/1 or so ( Betfair) yesterday. Hard work this racing lark ! Chris

Ok, thanks. I did say I was confused

Now I'm just plain confused ! What is this ? http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/pages/Southampton/Southampton-Football-Club/269582875366?ajaxpipe=1&__a=6

The best news of the day, having looked at the 3.00 I'm going to oppose Frankie My final selections today : 3.00 - Brighton - Hi Shinko - @ 8/1.Behind Ocean Countess and Choreography over C/D last time out but ran better than his finishing position suggests after running too freely early on.If he gets stronger handling today and now back to his last winning mark his form at Epsom last September suggests he is still worth an interest at a track like this. Yard send just the one to the races today. Has been very well backed this morning ! 4,30 - Brighton - Dualagi - @ 6/1. Opposing Frankie again here, it gets better......or worse depending how things pan out ! No doubt Super Frank has a live chance but I'm going with Dulagi who looks very well handicapped and who had no chance at all last time out when repeatedly baulked when trying to come through.Was never off the bridle but he found plenty of traffic and never got a chance to get to the leaders. The fact he got within just over three lengths of the winner, Boldinor, was very eye-catching and reopposes him today on 5lb better terms. Will certainly need more luck in running, generally comes from off the pace so fingers crossed he can get a clearer run today and for sure doesn't hamper or get hampered by Super Frank ! 6.20 - Newbury - Black Coffee e/w. @ 16/1.Never cut it as a hurdler for Nicky Henderson and was sold to current connections last month. Finished 10/15, beaten nearly nine lengths, returned to the flat but wasn't given a hard time and made up a bit of late ground over ten furlongs at this track. Longer trip this evening may suit and he wouldn't be badly handicapped on his maiden form of a few seasons ago. Placed in a couple of flat handicaps in Ireland last Summer and decent Apprentice booked. Faces several in form opponents but could surprise a few if he is put into the race. Good luck ! Chris

Nothing earth shattering springs out for me today though 2 smart horses I think are very likely winners but both short odds are : Beverley 3.45 - Polish World @ 6/4 : Although given no respite from the handicapper for his 6 lengths Ripon triumph last Thursday Polish World loves the track at Beverley and should complete a hat-trick this afternoon. He appeared to be running loose on the way to that success over Mississipian last time out but still won with some ease. Looks to be still some way ahead of the handicapper. Northern Flyer at a best priced 9/1 may well be the closest challenger. Newton Abbot 7.35- Smack That @ evens : Smack That could not have been more impressive on his first start for the trainer at Aintree, coming home unchallenged. The switch to better ground from the soft conditions he experienced in Ireland appeared to bring about marked improvement and this in-form novice can run-up a sequence over fences. Gee Dee Nen may well be the one for the forecast in a small field of 5. That may well be my lot for today, will probably do these 2 in a double but unless I find some value elsewhere I'm going to leave my pension pretty much intact ! Good luck, go Desert Liaison, 7/2 at Skybet. Chris

Is he better than Rory Delap ?

Well it made me laugh anyway !

I think you'll probably get 5/2-3/1 Stevo, that would be the kind of price I'd be looking at. So no 25/1 winner but hopefully a nice winner for you nonetheless. He's either brave or very foolish that Frankie I'll tell you ! Check, these are the forecast prices : 9/4 Choreography, 9/2 Desert Liaison, 5/1 Ocean Countess, 6/1 Dashing Beauty If you can get 9/2 that would be great value but I think it unlikely, Dashing Beauty is anything but dashing so 6/1 looks way too short and both Desert Liaison and Ocean Countess ( who might even be favourite) far too big a price. We'll see.

I could tell you Stevo but I'd probably get an infraction for it !

One for me for going off topic ? A man drives to a gas station and has his tank filled up. While doing this the clerk spots two penguins sitting on the back seat of the car. He asks the driver, "What's up with the penguins in the back seat?" The man in the car says, "I found them. I asked myself what to do with them but, I haven't a clue." The clerk ponders a bit then says, "You should take them to the zoo." "Yeah, that's a good idea," says the man in the car and drives away. The next day the man with the car is back at the same gas station. The clerk sees the penguins are still in the back seat of the car. "Hey, they're still here! I thought you were going to take them to the zoo!" "Oh, I did," says the driver, "and we had a great time. Today I'm taking them to the beach."

Just caught up with all the races now, missed the 6.40 until now. Great tip at 25/1, we definitely should start charging !! I nearly jumped ship on Bombadero as well in favour of Emerging Artist but decided not to put the jinx on it ! Chris

Great 25/1 winner Frankie !! Chris

Truth to tell if the posts on FB matched the doom and gloom air on here I'd have deleted it as well. Betfair is another very good example and though they still maintain a FB presence I'm thinking not much longer due to the rubbish/criticism/abuse posted. Some people are never happy and you get what you deserve in the end.

It sure could Stevo, how did you know I receive a private pension !? Anyway, it is now duly topped up and I can buy some food

I always prefer Firefox to IE, causes too many problems. May well be my old PC as well but Firefox is fine.

Sorry, misqouted above post, d'oh. I'm clearly not so bright Cape Quarter ran a decent race to place 3rd at 5/1, could not have picked the 25/1 winner ! Relative Strength did turn over Bombadero but Capaill Laith, easily, and Dovedon Angel, gamely, ensured a nice profit. Rare indeed for a Monday. Great race with Admin/Bubbly Bellini, don't get many dead heats these days ! Chris

Haha, Dovedon Angel obliges at 9/1, Capaill Laith easy as you like backed into 10/11. Bombadero did get turned over by Emerging Artist, not a great surprise in truth judging by the market. So are we really messing about or not Frankie;) Chris

Just having a laugh Stevo. One more for tonight : Windsor 7.10 Capaill Laith @ 6/4 Good luck Frankie and Stevo, Cape Quarter a decent price @5/1 with exactly 8 in the field and Aegean Shadow too short. Chris

2 early tips for this evening: Lingfield 5.45- Dovedon Angel; @ 6/1 : No doubt Relative Strength has a good chance running off a career low mark but I'm going to oppose Frankie's selection with Dovedon Angel. Gay Kelleway’s runner is upgraded into this Class 5 following frame finishes in 5 of his last six appearances but there is a good chance he’s more than capable of rising to the occasion. The Kelleway yard is in cracking form and I'm sure Dovedon Angel will be winning soon enough, hopefully today ! Chepstow 7.50 - Bombadero@ 5/4 NAP : Not a great price but the selection has been runner up on last 2 starts, most recently to Caucus who ran well at Royal Ascot. That was over the same course and distance, Bombadero has reportedly been working well at home. Emerging Artist may pose the main threat on only his 2nd start. Good luck, Chris

That's exactly the team I would pick, I was literally tearing my hair out v Algeria as each substitution was made an no sign of Joe Cole who surely, Rooney aside, is the one player we have with the ability to do the unexpected. As for Rooney am I the only one who is convinced he is suffering a reaction to carrying Man Utd for the whole of last season and/or not fully fit anyway ( for pretty much the same reason and playing when blatantly carrying an injury) ? Either way one thing he gives is 100% but even that seems lacking. We needed a fully fit and reasonably fresh Rooney in this WC, typically a Scottish manager ensured we haven't got one. Then you look at the team above and see FOUR Tottenham players and though it's through gritted teeth you have to say Redknapp must be doing something right, I doubt if asked he'd have recommended picking the injury prone King though. Back to Joe Cole and you have one player who is fit, fresh and surely raring to play and where is he ? Nowhere to be seen. No doubting that Capello did a very good job in ensuring we qualified with ease but he must surely realise the system that worked so well in qualifying isn't working now. Surely the injury to Joe Cole which really exposed our weakness on the left side of midfield and hence why Gerrard play on the left emphasised what an important player he is but heaven forbid he should line up on the left in partnership with his namesake and Chelsea team mate. Sven proved you win nothing by being faint hearted, if we fall into that trap again then more fool Capello. There is little doubt we aren't going to win this WC but at least let's see a team that is able to give it a damn good go.

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